Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Motherwell 0 Asian handicap cards
3pm Saturday
1pt 1.875 bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of Motherwell receiving most cards in the Scottish Premiership game at Dundee United.

Back Motherwell 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.875, equivalent to a fractional price of 35-40. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Motherwell’s total is highest the bet will win, if the two totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Dundee United’s total is highest the bet will lose.

Dundee United and Motherwell are both having good seasons and both are in the top half of the table. At least one and potentially both will go into a qualifying round for next season’s Europa Conference League. The other contenders are Ross County.

Odds in result-related markets suggest Dundee United are slightly – but only slightly – more likely to score most goals. They imply roughly a 36 per cent chance of a home win, a 31 per cent chance of a draw and a 33 per cent chance of an away win. That seems about right to me.

It is arguable that in Scottish Premiership games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards should typically be shorter than 1.875, and it is debatable whether at Tannadice today the odds should be as big as 1.875.

There is nothing exceptionally unusual about the bookings records of Dundee United or Motherwell. Broadly speaking, they have received the number of yellows and reds we should have anticipated from the games they have won, drawn and lost.

Referee Kevin Clancy this season has shown more cards to home players than away players. That is unusual, but it was not the case across his previous seasons in the Scottish Premiership when spectators were allowed. He is an experienced official who has performed in the top flight for a decade.

All things considered it is just possible that the odds for Motherwell 0 Asian handicap cards should not be as big as 1.875.

Thought for the week

How likely is it that Manchester City or Liverpool will win their last five Premier League games? How likely is it that they both will?

Here are two ways of thinking about the possibilities.

City lead Liverpool by one point after 33 games out of 38. For the purposes of this exercise, I am going to treat them as being of an identical standard now. I would be surprised if many people disagreed with that assumption strongly.

Altogether City and Liverpool have won 74 per cent of their games. If there is typically a 74 per cent chance of a team winning a game the chance of them winning five randomly chosen games in a row is 22 per cent. The chance of two such teams both winning five games in a row is just five per cent.

Of course City and Liverpool may have improved during the season and be better now than they were earlier. What if they have returned to the highest peak they had reached before?

City’s best seasons in terms of winning matches were 2017-18 and 2018-19, Liverpool’s were 2018-19 and 2019-20. In those seasons they won up to 84 per cent of their games. If there is typically an 84 per cent chance of a team winning a game the chance of them winning five randomly chosen games in a row is 42 per cent. That is the theory – and it worked out almost perfectly in practice. City and Liverpool in those seasons won 41 per cent of all possible sequences of five games in a row.

The chance of two such teams both winning five games in a row, though, is still only 17 per cent.

Watching City and Liverpool play it is sometimes hard to imagine them ever not winning. But the chance of at least one dropping points before the end of the season may actually be quite high. And for each team in isolation dropping points may still be more likely than not.

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