Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

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Ross County -0.5 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.8 bet365

In only one of their last four Scottish Premiership home games have Celtic received fewer cards than their visitors, and that was against Rangers.

In one of the other games I recommended backing the away team to receive most cards. These sorts of bets can lose, and could lose again on Saturday. But it does seem possible that the chance of Ross County receiving more cards than Celtic may be bigger than bet365 anticipate.

Back Ross County –0.5 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Ross County’s total is higher than Celtic’s the bet will win, otherwise it will lose.

Malky Mackay won the Scottish Premiership as a Celtic player. He faces them on Saturday as manager of Ross County, who start the day sixth in the table, although ahead of the three teams below them only on goal difference. Celtic are top.

This is Ross County’s ninth season in the Premiership and in only two of the previous eight were they in the top six when the division split into two after 33 games. This season teams have played 30 games. At the moment Ross County seem about average for visitors to Celtic Park.

The greater the likely difference in ability between two teams the fewer cards there are likely to be. And the fewer cards there are likely to be the less likely it becomes that the apparently weaker team will receive most cards – not least because a tie becomes progressively more likely.

And when Celtic play at home to anyone other than Rangers there is likely to be significant difference in ability between the teams. There should be. Celtic’s wage bill most seasons is around 16 times the size of Ross County’s, for example.

Even so, in the past visitors to Celtic Park received most cards in more than the 56 per cent of games implied by decimal odds of 1.8. This season generally in the Premiership away teams have received a slightly smaller share of total cards than in most recent seasons. Nonetheless it does still seem arguable that odds for Ross County –0.5 Asian handicap cards on Saturday should be shorter than 1.8.

Thought for the week

By Sunday night in the English FA Cup the number of Championship teams left will be two, one or none. The most likely number is none – and that is the number that reached the semi-finals in each of the previous six seasons. All 24 semi-finalists came from the Premier League.

It is 42 years since the FA Cup was won by a team from outside the top division.

This year the FA Cup seems to be shaping up in a way that would be similar to most recent seasons, although there is still the possibility of an unusual occurrence.

Before Saturday’s first quarter-final there are six Premier League teams left in the FA Cup. When they entered the FA Cup, Manchester City were first in the Premier League, Chelsea second and Liverpool third. Fourteen times in the previous 25 seasons – that is to say, more often than not – the FA Cup was won by a team who at the time they entered were in the top three of the Premier League.

Six times it was won by a team from between fourth and sixth, four times by a team from between seventh and tenth. Only once in that quarter-century was the FA Cup won by a team who when they entered were in the bottom half of the Premier League. Only eight of the beaten finalists had been in the bottom half of the Premier League – fewer than a third.

When they entered the FA Cup this season Crystal Palace were 11th, Southampton 14th and Everton 15th. And at least one of those teams is guaranteed to progress at least as far as the semi-finals. Palace play Everton on Sunday in another quarter-final.

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