Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under six Asian total cards in Bologna v Fiorentina
2pm Sunday
1pt Evs bet365

Preview

Daniele Orsato is a long-serving Serie A referee. He is also quick to reach for a card.

On Sunday he will officiate at his 260th game, Bologna v Fiorentina. It will be his first game this season. In 13 of the previous 16 seasons he issued more cards than a typical colleague.

In bet365 markets, where each yellow counts as two cards and each red as one card, his make-ups have gone as high as 12 – most recently in a game at Bologna.

Orsato’s average make-up, though, has been 5.8. As you might expect, this means make-ups under six have occurred more often than makeups over six. In 117 of his previous games the make-up was under six, in 97 it was over six – and in 45 it was six.

So it is possible that there is some value for money in backing under six Asian total cards in tomorrow’s game with bet365 at evens, equivalent to decimal odds of 2.0. If the makeup is below six the bet will win, if it is six stakes will be returned and if it is above six the bet will lose.

Things could go terribly wrong. Orsata has already shown more than six cards in eight games involving Bologna and in 21 games involving Fiorentina. And Bologna will be playing their first game since the sacking of coach Sinisa Mihajlovic, which could have an effect on their card accumulation, and not for the best.

Bologna’s first two games this season produced cards make-ups of 11 and eight, but the three since then have each produced fewer than six. They have not been involved in high cards make-ups unusually often over the past few seasons. Nor have Fiorentina.

Orsato is one of the last Italian referees you would want to have the whistle if your are betting on a low number of cards, but it is possible that even with him in charge the decimal odds for under six Asian total cards between Bologna and Fiorentina should be shorter than evens.

Thought for the week

Away teams have scored more goals than home teams in La Liga, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. Home teams have scored 48 per cent of all goals in La Liga, 47 per cent in Ligue 1 and 41 per cent in the Bundesliga.

This is unusual. Last season in those competitions home teams scored between 56 and 57 per cent of all goals. Even when fans were shut out of stadiums during the worst of the Coronavirus pandemic, home teams generally scored more goals than away teams – although there were differences from competition to competition and from time to time.

What should we expect next in the top divisions of Spain, France and Germany?

This is how I think football works. There are long-term trends, around which there can be short-term fluctuations. Over a short period of time almost anything can happen. Long-term trends are not carved in stone. They can also change, but when they do there is usually a good reason we could have spotted at the beginning.

Home teams in the Premier League and Serie A have outscored away teams by even more than usual this season. Should we, nonetheless, suppose that ground advantage in La Liga, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga is now a negative – that it works against home teams and for away teams? This short-term fluctuation could expand into a long-term trend. But I cannot think of a good reason why it should. Can you? Much more likely, I feel, is that before long home teams will be outscoring away teams again.

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