Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Oldham +2 corners handicap
1pt 21-20 Hills

Forest Green are top of League Two and everything is going well. They have a game in hand on most of the teams below them, they have scored a lot of goals from a lot of shots and a lot of possession. They have also taken a lot of corners, particularly away from home. On the road they have won the corners count by two or more in seven games out of ten.

Even if they keep playing well, though, they may not win the corners count so easily so often in future. Back Saturday's opponents Oldham at 21-20 on a corners handicap of +2 with William Hill.

Oldham are second from bottom, above last-placed Scunthorpe only on goal difference. Forest Green are even more likely to win this away game than many others. Even so, the chance of them prevailing in the corners count by two or more may not be as high as Hills estimate – the bet will fail if they do but pay out if something else happens.

The result-related markets imply roughly a 22 per cent chance of an Oldham win, a 25 per cent chance of a draw and a 53 per cent chance of a Forest Green win. I think those numbers are about right.

Forest Green should also be favourites to take most corners, but arguably Oldham should not be such a big price on a corners handicap of +2. Odds of 21-20 imply a 49 per cent chance of success. In previous seasons in EFL games with similar result expectations the proportion of home teams who avoided defeat in the corners count by two or more was meaningfully higher.

Yes, Forest Green have done unusually well on corners in other away games. If they do as well this weekend the bet will lose. But they could play as well as they have so far without dominating as comprehensively in the corners count, and the possibility of that happening may be better than Hills calculate.

Thought for the week

Sebastien Haller of Ajax has set a record by scoring in his first six Champions League games. He is the only player other than Cristiano Ronaldo to score in every group game in a season. Haller was regarded as a flop at West Ham.

Sometimes a transfer just does not work out. A player can do well at his previous club and at subsequent clubs but not at this club. And you can look for reasons as hard as you like but never know if you have found the real ones. You will be able to come up with plausible explanations, but are they the right ones? Sometimes, about some things, we just cannot know.

Admittedly, playing for Ajax in the Dutch Eredivisie is a lower level than playing in the Premier League. And Ajax's Champions League opponents this season, in the order they finished below Ajax, were Sporting, Borussia Dortmund and Besiktas. Of those, only Dortmund from the German Bundesliga would be likely to make an impact in the Premier League.

The Bundesliga is closer in standard to the Premier League. Yet West Ham bought Haller after he had done well in the Bundesliga for Eintracht Frankfurt. Buying and selling players is fraught with mysteries. Some people will pretend otherwise, but no one ever really knows which transfers will work and which will not.

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