Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the soccer boffin

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Angers 0 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.925 bet365

Bet365 may have underestimated the chance of Angers taking most corners on Sunday in their Ligue 1 game at home to Strasbourg.

Back Angers 0 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.925, equivalent to the fractional price of 37-40. If Angers take most corners the bet will succeed, if both teams take the same number stakes will be returned and if Strasbourg take most corners the bet will fail.

Both teams are in their first season after the departure of a long-serving manager, and both are doing fine. Gerald Baticle replaced Stephane Moulin, who had managed Angers for ten seasons. Julien Stephan replaced Thierry Laurey, who had managed Strasbourg for five seasons.

Angers are in mid-table, which is familiar ground for them. Strasbourg are challenging for a European place, which is a bit better than they usually do.

In result-related markets Strasbourg are regarded as slightly more likely than Angers to score most goals. The odds imply something like a 41 per cent chance of a home win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 30 per cent chance of a home win. Those proportions seem reasonable given the won/drawn/lost records of the two teams.

In previous seasons in Ligue 1 games with similar result expectations, fair decimal odds about the home team on an Asian handicap corners line of 0 would normally have been shorter than 1.925. And it is debatable whether the right odds today would be as big as 1.925. There does not appear to be anything particularly unusual in the corners records of the two teams.

In recent seasons Angers and Strasbourg have operated on similar budgets. In the last two seasons for which accounts have been published – 2019-20 and 2020-21 – their payrolls were almost identical. In none of the last four seasons did they finish more than two places apart.

Strasbourg have been getting better results this season. They might score most goals on Sunday. And they might take more corners – but the chance that something else will happen and Angers will take more corners may be better than bet365’s’ odds anticipate.

Thought for the week

This season in the EFL Championship Birmingham won 5-0 at Luton. On the same day in League One Sheffield Wednesday won 2-0 at Rotherham.

From neither of those results would you have anticipated the current tables. Rotherham are top of League One, Luton are challenging for a playoff place in the Championship.

This weekend the teams meet again, with the venues reversed. Is there a relationship between the first and second meetings of a season? The answer is a little but not a lot. Much can change in between.

I studied EFL results in the 24 seasons from 1995-96 to 2018-19 – I stopped then to avoid the complications of a season not completed and games played without fans. Overall 44 per cent of games resulted in home wins, 28 per cent in draws and 28 per cent in away wins.

Now let us focus specifically on return fixtures.

The proportion of home wins was 41 per cent for teams who had lost away in the first fixture, 45 per cent for teams who had drawn away in the first fixture and 49 per cent for teams who had won away in the first fixture.

The proportion of away wins was 31 per cent for teams who had won at home in the first fixture, 27 per cent for teams who had drawn at home in the first fixture and 25 per cent for teams who had lost at home in the first fixture. The proportion of draws in return fixtures was always between 26 and 28 per cent.

Broadly speaking, the better teams did in the first game the better they did in the second game, but not by much.

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