Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

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Under 4.5 Asian total cards Tottenham v Leeds
1pt 1.95 bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of a low number of cards tomorrow in the televised Premier League game between Tottenham and Leeds.

Back under 4.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards.

When fans were shut out of grounds there were fewer cards. This season with fans back in stadiums there have been even more cards than there used to be in the Premier League – an average of just over four per game using bet365’s scoring system.

As that average suggests, makeups below 4.5 have still been slightly more common than makeups above 4.5. But not in games involving Tottenham or Leeds.

In only five of Tottenham’s 11 games have there been fewer than 4.5 cards. In only four of Leeds’s 11 games have there been fewer than 4.5 cards.

It has happened only once in the six games refereed by Andre Marriner. He is a hugely experienced official – this will be his 367th Premier League games spread over 18 seasons – and during his career there have been times when his card counts were a bit lower than the Premier League average and times when they were a bit higher.

If Tottenham and Leeds carry on in the same way tomorrow, and Marriner has to, there will probably be more than 4.5 cards. But they might not. There is no obvious reason why Tottenham and Leeds should continue to be involved in more high-card games than other Premier League teams. Or why Marriner should feature in more than other Premier League referees.

And card counts generally may come down as the season goes on.

Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa demands high-energy play. Do his teams accidentally provoke more cards because of this? Not necessarily. It did not happen at Athletic Bilbao or Marseille, although it did in his half-season with Lille and his two seasons in the Championship with Leeds.

New Tottenham manager Antonio Conte can be an all-action figure on the touchline. Do his teams attract more cards than most others? Did it happen at Inter, Chelsea and Juventus? There were times when it did and times when it did not. Overall, not really. There may be more than 4.5 cards tomorrow between Tottenham and Leeds, but the chance of fewer may be underestimated by decimal odds of 1.95.

Qualification results are irrelevant at a World Cup

What should you take from the World Cup qualification process? There is only one piece of information that is of any use – who has qualified and who could still qualify. How they qualify is irrelevant. There is effectively no relationship between results in qualification and results at a tournament.

You might be surprised to read this if you follow football elsewhere in the media. Elsewhere there is always a lot of speculation, not only at the end of the programme but also after every game, about how well a team played and what that means for their prospects at the World Cup. It is nothing but misleading nonsense.

To understand why, you do not need to do any research comparing results from previous qualification programmes and tournaments.

Just reflect on this. England beat San Marino 10-0 three days after they had beaten Albania 5-0. Altogether England played six games against San Marino, Albania and Andorra and won all six with an aggregate score of 31-0. What could that sort of thing possibly tell us about how England will do in Qatar next year when they meet another team who are realistic candidates to win the World Cup? Nothing.

And similar questions with an identical answer could be asked of other qualifiers in Europe and on other continents.

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