Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Hull 0 Asian handicap cards
Millwall v Hull, 3pm Saturday
1pt 1.675 bet365

Back Hull to receive most cards in their Championship game at Millwall. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.675, slightly better than the fractional price of 4-6, for Hull 0 Asian handicap cards.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Hull’s total is highest the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be refunded, and if Millwall’s total is highest the bet will lose.

Hull will be playing their first game under new manager Liam Rosenior. They should do better over the rest of the season than they have done so far – they have more potential than results suggest. But what are reasonable expectations today, away from home against good Championship opponents?

The result-related markets imply a 51 per cent chance of a Millwall win, a 28 per cent chance of a draw and a 21 per cent chance of a Hull win. Those percentages sound about right to me.

Cards in matches are generally distributed the other way round to goals. This is because most cards are shown for a genuine attempt to stop an opposition attack that goes wrong. The more defending a team are likely to do, the more cards they are likely to receive.

In other EFL games with similar result expectations, fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would normally be shorter than 1.675. Should they be as big as 1.675 today? It is arguable that they should not.

Looking back over Millwall’s games this season and in previous seasons under manager Gary Rowett, their cards for and against have been pretty much what we should have anticipated from their goals for and against. Likewise for Hull in this and other recent seasons.

In other words, there do not seem to be strong reasons for thinking the distribution of cards in this game is likely to be different than it has been in similar contests. That still means every outcome is possible. The bet can win, tie or lose. In every market on every event, every outcome can occur. But there do seem to be grounds for believing that decimal odds for Hull 0 Asian handicap cards should be shorter than 1.675.

Thought for the week

The first round of the FA Cup is the highest-scoring. Over the last 30 completed seasons – 1992-93 to 2021-22 – there were 3.0 goals per game in the first round and 2.1 in the final, excluding replays, extra time and penalty shootouts.

There was a little bit of meandering along the way, but basically goals per game followed a downward route from the beginning of the tournament to the end.

There were two reasons for this.

First, goals are a function of competitiveness – higher competitiveness is associated with lower scores – and FA Cup ties become more competitive round by round. In the early stages there are a lot of ties between teams from different divisions, in the later stages fewer and fewer.

Second, goals vary with how much is at stake. Round by round, FA Cup ties become progressively more important - there is extra riding on each one. And, other things being equal, the more important the outcome, the less prodigious the score.

If you watch first-round ties you are likely to see almost one goal per game more than if you watch finals. Which would you rather do, though? The object of football is to score goals, but it becomes more fascinating as scoring becomes harder.

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