Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

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Elche +1 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.95 bet365

Back Elche to take at least as many corners as Real Sociedad in their game in La Liga.

Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20, about Elche +1 Asian handicap corners. If Elche take as many or more corners than Real Sociedad the bet will win, if both teams take the same number stakes will be returned, and if anything else happens the bet will lose.

First of all, what sort of match does it seem reasonable to anticipate at the Estadio Martinez Valero?

Elche are a low-budget team who are in their third season back in La Liga. That is a good achievement for them. Real Sociedad are a team we are used to seeing in La Liga. Their average finishing position over the past ten seasons was eighth – a slight improvement on their all-time average finishing position of ninth.

Elche started with a 3-0 loss at Betis then drew 1-1 at home to Almeria. Real Sociedad won 1-0 at Cadiz then lost 4-1 at home to Barcelona.

The result-related odds for Saturday imply a 27 per cent chance of an Elche win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 43 per cent chance of a Real Sociedad win, and those proportions seem about right to me.

In previous seasons in La Liga games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the home team +1 Asian handicap corners would typically have been shorter than 1.95.

Francisco became Elche manager when they were in the relegation zone last November, after which results improved considerably and they finished 13th. But they performed poorly in corners handicap markets.

This season they lost the corners count by four at Betis then won by one at home to Almeria, which does not really give us any indication of whether or how things are going to change.

More likely than not, Elche will perform better overall in corners handicap markets than they did last season. But it is not certain, and if it does happen we do not know when it will start. Nonetheless, it does seem possible that the odds for Elche +1 Asian handicap corners should be shorter than 1.95.

Thought for the week

Unbelievable. Shocking. Dramatic. Those a-round ties. Really?

League Two Crawley won at home to Premier League Fulham. That was unbelievable. League One Milton Keynes Dons won away to Championship Watford. That was shocking. Championship Norwich lost in a penalty shootout at home to Premier League Bournemouth. That was dramatic.

Last season, which was only three months ago, Norwich were the Premier League team and Bournemouth were the Championship team.

This is how knockout football works, how it always has worked and how, I suspect, it always will work. When a team play opponents from a lower division they will win more often than they lose – but sometimes they will lose. And sometimes they will draw, which in the EFL Cup provokes a penalty shootout.

How often do they get different results? I went back over EFL Cup scores for the last 20 completed seasons, 2002-03 to 2021-22, to find out.

Championship teams playing at home to Premier League opponents were leading or drawing at the end of normal time in 44 per cent of games. League One teams playing away to Championship opponents won in 18 per cent of games. League Two teams playing at home to Premier League opponents won in 11 per cent of games.

Those were roughly one-in-nine, two-in-11 and four-in-nine chances. Even something that happens one time in nine is not that unusual.

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