Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Almeria +2.5 Asian handicap corners
v Real Madrid, 9pm Sunday
1pt 1.825 bet365

Real Madrid were the best team in Spain last season and also won the Champions League. On Wednesday they lifted the Super Cup. On Sunday they will play away to Almeria, who are returning to La Liga after seven seasons below.

Real are far more likely to have most of the ball and score most of the goals. Even so, they might not dominate the flag kicks as comprehensively as bet365 suggest.

Back Almeria +2.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.825, equivalent to the fractional price of 33-40. If Madrid win the corner-count by three or more the bet will fail, but if not it will succeed.

Almeria, unavoidably, are something of an unknown quantity at this level, even though manager Rubi has already managed four other teams who will be in La Liga this season – Betis, Espanyol, Girona and Valladolid.

Almeria’s corners for and against last season in the Segunda Division were consistent with the goals they scored and conceded and the number of games they won, drew and lost. But they did not face anyone anywhere near as good as Real Madrid.

The average finishing position of newly promoted teams in La Liga is 15th. Almeria return as champions of the Segunda Division and bookmakers seem to anticipate them finishing around 15th.

Over the last 13 seasons – 2009-10 to 2021-22 – Madrid had ups and down. Over all 13 seasons their results were similar to – if anything, slightly better than – those bookmakers are anticipating from them this season.

And in those seasons, playing away to teams who finished lower than 15th, ignoring games without crowds, their opponents would have beaten a corners handicap of +2.5 more often than is suggested by decimal odds of 1.825. Fifty-nine per cent of the time, to be exact. Odds of 1.825 imply a 55 per cent chance of a payout.

There were still plenty of times when Madrid won the corners count by three, four, five or more. And many seasons ago, in 2010-11, they won by 11 at Almeria. Historically, though, they have done less well than Sunday's odds suggest in corners counts away to teams who seem broadly comparable to Almeria.

Thought for the week

Sky Sports pundit Alan Smith was surprised that in the Premier League last season the ball was in play for an average of only 55 minutes. He said he thought the time would have been much longer. He might not be the only one.

Last season, though, was not an exception. In nine of the ten previous seasons the average ball in play time had been 56 minutes and in the other it had been 57 minutes. All of the figures I am quoting here are rounded to the nearest whole minute.

The first of those 11 previous seasons was 2011-12. In the five seasons before then the average ball in play time had been 55 minutes once, 54 minutes twice and 53 minutes twice. So there have been seasons in the not-too-distant past when spectators saw even less football than they did last season, whether they realise it or not.

And what has happened in the Premier League is similar to what has happened in many other competitions and countries. A rule of thumb: if you switch on your television while a football match is in progress the odds are shorter than 6-4 that when the picture appears the ball is dead.

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