Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Greuther Furth +3 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.95 bet365

Leipzig are likely to have most possession in Sunday's Bundesliga game at Greuther Furth. They are more likely to score most goals, and also more likely to take most corners. But they might not dominate the attacking play and win the corner count as comprehensively as bet365 anticipate.

Back Greuther Furth +3 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20. If Furth lose the corners count by four or more the bet will fail, if they lose it by three stakes will be returned, but if something else happens the bet will succeed.

This is only Furth’s second season in the Bundesliga. The first was 2012-13. Then they finished bottom with 21 points from 34 games. This term they might fall slightly short of that total. After 25 games they are bottom with 14 points. It is a great credit to Furth to be in the Bundesliga.

Leipzig normally finish near the top of the Bundesliga, and they have been heading back there since December when Domenico Tedesco replaced Jesse Marsch as manager. At the start of this weekend’s programme Leipzig were fifth with 41 points from 25 games, two points off a Champions League place.

By any evaluation, Leipzig should be and are a much better team than Furth. The result-related odds for Sunday's game imply something like an 11 per cent chance of a Furth win, an 18 per cent chance of a draw and a 71 per cent chance of a Leipzig win. I think those numbers are probably about right.

Even when such a lopsided contest is anticipated, however, it is debatable whether the decimal odds for the home team +3 Asian handicap corners should be as big as 1.95. In Bundesliga games with similar result expectations in previous seasons the odds should not normally have been that big.

There has been nothing especially unusual in the corners splits in Furth’s games or in Leipzig’s games. Perhaps Leipzig have performed slightly better in corners handicap markets than we should have anticipated from the number of goals they have scored and conceded – there is generally a relationship between those things. Even so, it is arguable that Furth +3 Asian handicap corners still should not be as big as 1.95.

Thought for the week

There was a furious reaction to Manchester United’s 4-1 defeat at Manchester City last Sunday. Ex-United players said the current United players were not trying or are not good enough.

They were not saying that at half-time. I was watching on television and turned on the sound to hear pundits declare that United had played well even though they were trailing 2-1. I thought so too.

Were they saying it before the match? A lot of people were not. The Racing Post received an email from Ladbrokes saying they had taken almost twice as many bets on United as on City. Ladbrokes’ odds were 2-5 City, 13-2 United.

After the match United backers were probably saying the same sort of things as United fans and ex-United players. And all because of 45 minutes of football, at most. It is amazing how quickly in football opinions can turn around.

On Saturday United play at home to Tottenham.

Even Tottenham manager Antonio Conte seems to have a different assessment of his team every week as results see-saw up and down. Today he and nearly everyone else will start with a good feeling about Tottenham. On Monday they thrashed relegation-threatened Everton.

Previously they had been knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Middlesbrough after thrashing relegation-threatened Leeds, after losing to relegation-threatened Burnley after beating top-of-the-table Manchester City. I could go on.

On Saturday, I imagine, a lot more football fans – bettors and non-bettors alike – will fancy Tottenham more than United. Tottenham could win. If United win we will hear people saying that United are back on track and Tottenham have lost their way again.

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