Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Clermont +2.5 Asian handicap corners
v Paris Saint-Germain, 8pm Saturday
1pt 17-20 bet365

In the most recent season for which accounts have been published – 2020-21 – PSG’s wage bill represented almost a third of the Ligue 1 total. There were 19 other clubs, so PSG paid as much as nine or ten of them put together. And since then they have signed Lionel Messi and re-signed Kylian Mbappe.

PSG are on a different level to everyone else in Ligue 1 in terms of finance, and therefore in terms of football. They are rightly regarded in the markets as overwhelming favourites to win their opening game of this season away to Clermont on Saturday night. However, they might not dominate the corners count quite as comprehensively as bet365 anticipate.

Back Clermont +2.5 Asian handicap corners at fractional odds of 17-20, equivalent to decimal odds of 1.85. If PSG win the corners count by three or more the bet will fail, otherwise it will succeed.

There are at least two ways of thinking about this.

Result-related markets imply something like an 81 per cent chance of a PSG win, a 15 per cent chance of a draw and a four per cent chance of a Clermont win.

In previous seasons in Ligue 1 games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the home team +2.5 Asian handicap corners would typically have been shorter than 17-20.

And PSG away from home have typically won the corners count by three or more less often than the 54 per cent implied by odds of 17-20.

PSG’s finances were transformed when they were bought by the rulers of Qatar. They have won Ligue 1 in eight of the last ten seasons. Their results were great throughout that time. They have not done better in the last few seasons than in the first few, so it is not unreasonable to consider them all.

Away from home when fans were in attendance PSG won the corners count by three or more in 35 per cent of games. Clermont finished 17th out of 20 last season and, understandably, are regarded in markets as likely to finish near the bottom this season. However, even when playing away to teams who finished in the bottom quarter of the table PSG won the corners count by three or more in only 40 per cent of games.

Any outcome is possible, but the chance of Clermont +2.5 Asian handicap corners paying out may be better than the odds envisage.

Thought for the week

Teams promoted to the Premier League tend to be better than those relegated from it. Relegated teams are those who finished 20th, 19th and 18th. Most promoted teams have finished higher. Therefore, teams entering the Premier League have tended to do better than those they replaced.

That has been true even in recent seasons, when we seem to have got it in our heads that hardly any of the teams who come up are able to stay up.

Take the past ten seasons, 2012-13 to 2021-22. Promoted teams in the Premier League averaged 37 points and 16th place, two above the relegation line. Five out of the 30 finished in the top half of the table. That was one out of every six.

Each season at least one promoted team stayed up. There were no seasons in which all three were relegated, five seasons in which two were relegated, four seasons in which one was relegated, and one season in which none was relegated.

Altogether 14 of the promoted teams went down but 16 stayed up. So there may be more realistic hope than we might have imagined for some, although not all, of Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, who on Saturday will start this season back in the Premier League.

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