WGC-Mexico Championship: Steve Palmer's free day three betting tips

Free golf tips, best bets and analysis for day three of the WGC-Mexico Championship.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy to win the WGC-Mexico Championship
1pt 100-30 general

Bryson DeChambeau to win threeball
1pt 11-8 general

Preview

Rory McIlroy was the early pacesetter in the WGC-Mexico Championship, but the Northern Irishman failed to kick clear in round two, so will take a three-shot deficit into the weekend.

McIlroy, a best-price 13-2 ante-post, is 100-30 favourite with 36 holes to go at Club de Golf Chapultepec, but he will need to overcome Bryson DeChambeau, who surged to the top of the leaderboard with a Friday 63.

DeChambeau, a general pre-tournament 25-1 chance, can be backed at 7-2 to win a first WGC title on Sunday.

He covered his final nine holes of round two in six under par – a closing stretch of 29 to propel himself to the head of affairs.

DeChambeau is a five-times PGA Tour champion at the age of 26, with two FedEx Cup playoff titles, so he has proved his mettle at the business end of tournaments.

This is a far from straightforward winning opportunity in Mexico, though, given the quality of the chasing pack.

His only previous visit to Chapultepec ended in disgrace – he finished 56th of 72 runners and hacked a chunk out of the practice putting green in a fit of pique after round one, his misdemeanour caught on camera by Sky Sports.

If DeChambeau is going to make this trip to Mexico the ultimate act of redemption, he must fend off McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama over the weekend.

Reed is tied alongside Erik van Rooyen in second place, one shot behind, while Thomas and Matsuyama share fourth spot, another shot off the pace.

There is a three-shot gap between McIlroy and those in seventh place, so the top six have distanced themselves from the rest. It is 66-1 bar those.

Outright punters getting involved at this stage are advised to respect DeChambeau and Matsuyama, but to expect Thomas and McIlroy to assert their superiority over the closing two rounds.

McIlroy at 100-30 is arguably a slightly better bet than Thomas at 7-2 given the way they finished round two.

Thomas seemed a likely halfway leader after making eagle at the first hole (his tenth), but was one over par to the clubhouse from there.

McIlroy was one over par through 11 holes and getting left behind, but the 30-year-old has got better at handling adversity and made four birdies in his final seven holes to get back in the thick of things.

Van Rooyen tied the course record with a Friday 62, but the South African has ended up in a horrible threeball with two of the most unappealing playing partners in the sport.

The South African has every right to struggle in his group alongside DeChambeau and Reed (6.30pm UK and Ireland time), and punters should probably be siding with DeChambeau.

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