Turkish Airlines Open: Steve Palmer's final-round preview, best bet, free tip

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 9am Sunday

Best bet

Patrick Reed to win the Turkish Airlines Open
1pt each-way 6-1 bet365

Story so far

Matthias Schwab will take a three-shot lead into the final round of the Turkish Airlines Open, the ante-post 28-1 chance a shade of odds-against to convert his advantage into a maiden European Tour title.

Schwab, who has finished in the top five on the European Tour five times this year, tied for fourth place in the WGC-HSBC Champions last Sunday. The Austrian form-horse was making his debut at the Montgomerie Maxx Royal this week, but he has quickly adjusted to the track and reached 18 under par through three rounds.

Schwab has carded 65, 67 and 66 to scoot clear, with five players tied for second place, including former Masters champion Patrick Reed. Ante-post favourite, Justin Rose, endured an over-par round three to drop to a share of 25th place, eight shots adrift, his bid for a Turkish Airlines Open hat-trick all but over.

Leaderboard
-18 Matthias Schwab
-15 Ross Fisher, Patrick Reed, Robert MacIntyre, Benjamin Hebert, Tyrrell Hatton
-13 Scott Jamieson, Erik van Rooyen, Victor Perez

Best prices
6-5 M Schwab, 6 P Reed, 7 T Hatton, 8 R MacIntyre, 14 B Hebert, 16 R Fisher, 33 V Perez, E Van Rooyen, 66 S Jamieson, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Matthias Schwab has been banging loudly at the door of the winner's enclosure over the last three months, finishing fifth in the Czech Masters, eighth at Crans, second in the European Open, fourth in the Italian Open and fourth in the HSBC, becoming more comfortable on European Tour leaderboards.

There is every chance the 24-year-old has matured enough to convert his opportunity in Turkey – and he has been rock-solid for the most part this week – but the youngster has never won a tournament of any significance and seems bound to tighten up to some degree on Sunday.

Schwab churns out fairways and greens – his game is ideal for defending leads – but he has never got the job done and has a gaggle of dangermen lurking just behind him. A maiden has not won a European Tour Final Series event since 2015 and there are strong reasons for this – they have become hugely prestigious and lucrative occasions at which the pressure is ratcheted up several levels. Expect a Schwab wobble at some stage.

Erik van Rooyen finished round three in style and the in-form South African powerhouse will still feel he can catch Schwab from five shots behind, but Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton are two shots closer to the lead and are probably the most serious threats to the pacesetter.

Hatton has been swinging well for the last few months, handicapped by a cold putter, and it remains to be seen whether the temperamental Englishman has the flat-stick confidence to emerge triumphant at the Montgomerie Maxx. Preference at the prices – and arguably the best value outright wager at this stage – is for Reed.

Tiger Woods handed Reed an enormous boost during the Turkish Airlines Open by announcing him as a wild-card pick for the Presidents Cup, as well as snubbing Jordan Spieth, with whom Reed had a bust-up at the last Ryder Cup.

Reed has played 36 holes in 14 under par since getting the Presidents Cup call, his only error coming with a three-putt from short range at the par-five 13th in round three, and he covered his final four holes in three under par. The seven-time PGA Tour champion will be relishing the chance to hunt down a nervous leader.

Reed improved as the week wore on in China last week – 72, 69, 69, 66 for eighth place in the HSBC – and a similar story could be developing in Turkey. With three maidens in the top six on the Turkey board, plus Ross Fisher, who is winless for more than five years and playing on a controversial invite this week, Reed seems by far the most likely of that sextet to retain composure in a close finish. Hatton has gone two years without a victory.

Schwab, Benjamin Hebert and Hatton tee off at 8.30am UK and Ireland time in the final threeball. More perfect weather is forecast – sunny with no breeze.

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