Steve Palmer's Zozo Championship final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Zozo Championship at Narashino Country Club on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5am Sunday

Best bets

Tommy Fleetwood to win the Zozo Championship
1pt each-way 30-1 bet365

Brendan Steele to win the Zozo Championship
1pt each-way 22-1 general

Story so far

Hideki Matsuyama carded a bogey-six at his final hole of round three, but the local hero retained a lead going into Sunday of the Zozo Championship at Narashino Country Club.

A hooked drive caused problems for Matsuyama on the 18th hole - an easy birdie opportunity - but the ante-post 12-1 chance is no bigger than 4-5 with 18 holes to play in his homeland.
PGA Tour maiden Cameron Tringale is alone in second place, one shot behind, then there is a further three-shot gap to the trio tied for third spot.

American raiders Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, who got left behind in the early running, both had positive Saturdays. Schauffele has left himself with too much to do, trailing Matsuyama by 12 shots, but Morikawa kept his hopes alive with an 18th-hole eagle. The world number three is alone in eighth place, six shots off the pace.

Leaderboard
-10 Hideki Matsuyama
-9 Cameron Tringale
-6 Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Steele, Matt Wallace
-5 Branden Grace, Tommy Fleetwood
-4 Collin Morikawa

Best prices
4-5 H Matsuyama, 9-4 C Tringale, 22 S Munoz, M Wallace, B Steele, 30 T Fleetwood, 35 C Morikawa, 55 B Grace, 175 bar

Final-round preview

Hideki Matsuyama has gone odds-on for victory, while the top two on the leaderboard are three shots clear of the rest of the field, but the Zozo Championship still seems fairly open with at least 18 holes to complete.

Matsuyama was downbeat about the state of his game before this tournament and he has never looked entirely comfortable with his swing this week, battling to his score through his love for the venue, course knowledge, and some fortunate breaks when he has hit some wild drives.

The 5,000 spectators allowed into Narashino for the denouement will be expecting Matsuyama to triumph and will be arriving for a celebration. The pressure is intense on the Masters champion, but he has shown in the past he can handle the weight of expectation from compatriots. The problem for Matsuyama will probably not be a mental one - it is more a question of whether his technique will hold strong enough for him to repel the chasing pack.

The leader could not have picked many more agreeable Sunday foes than Cameron Tringale, who remains a PGA Tour maiden after 313 attempts. It would be remarkable should the Californian, having blown so many chances at home in front of supportive galleries, finally gets the job done when up against Japan's favourite son in Japan.

There must be a chance of both Matsuyama and Tringale treading water in the final threeball, encouraging the pursuers. It is 22-1 bar the front two and that is surely where the outright value lies.

Matt Wallace played poorly over the closing holes of round three, getting easily agitated and missing a tiddler at the last. The Englishman is winless since September, 2018, on the European Tour and has never won on the PGA Tour.

Sebastian Munoz tied fourth in the Olympics in Tokyo in August and is more appealing. Sunny, calm conditions are forecast for the final round and this typically great putter is capable of going low. The Colombian is in the final threeball alongside Matsuyama and Tringale, though, which could prove unsettling. Wallace did not enjoy playing amid the Matsuyama circus in round three, and it could be the same for Munoz.

Brendan Steele could prove the pick of those at six under par. Steele followed a strong weekend for 17th place in the Sanderson Farms Championship with a missed cut on the mark in the Shriners, then missed the CJ Cup, meaning he could freshen up for the Zozo and arrive earlier than many others.

Steele was third in the 2015 CIMB Classic, showing a liking for these PGA Tour events in Asia, and the three-time PGA Tour champion could cause an upset in Chiba.

Branden Grace, who won the China Open on the European Tour in 2012, must be respected from five shots behind, but preference from there is for Tommy Fleetwood, who has found some form lately and enjoyed a strong weekend in the CJ Cup.

Coming from behind will suit Fleetwood, who is in the same threeball as Collin Morikawa. It is not difficult to imagine that dynamic duo peppering pins throughout round four in the best conditions of the week. Morikawa, six behind, closed with a 62 in the CJ Cup last week and will feel he is still in the hunt in the Zozo.

Expect Morikawa, Fleetwood and Steele to charge from off the pace, applying Sunday pressure to Matsuyama. The leader may be up to the task of repelling them, but 4-5 is an unattractive price about him doing so. Matsuyama, Tringale and Munoz tee off at 2.50am UK and Ireland time on Sunday morning.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport