Steve Palmer's Workday Charity Open final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bet

Justin Thomas & Viktor Hovland dual forecast
2pts 11-8 Sky Bet

Talor Gooch to win threeball
1pt 23-10 Betfair

Story so far

Justin Thomas will take a two-shot lead into the final round of the Workday Charity Open after he overtook Collin Morikawa on Saturday.

Thomas, who is chasing his 13th PGA Tour title, has not dropped a shot over the opening 54 holes at Muirfield Village. The polished, professional performance, which has been built on stellar approach-play and some wonderful touch around the greens on the rare occasions he has found trouble, has turned the pre-tournament 11-1 chance into a best-price 8-13 favourite.

Thomas has found almost 80 percent of greens in regulation – a superb effort at a demanding layout – and he tops the scrambling statistics. Viktor Hovland is alone in second place, while halfway pacesetter Morikawa has dropped to third spot.

Tour chiefs have moved the final-round tee-times forward because sporadic thunderstorms are forecast for all day in Dublin, Ohio. Thomas, Hovland and Morikawa are scheduled to tee off at 2.01pm UK and Ireland time in the closing threeball, but there is a chance of that being delayed by the weather gods.

Leaderboard
-16 Justin Thomas
-14 Viktor Hovland
-13 Collin Morikawa
-11 Sam Burns, Kevin Streelman
-10 Ian Poulter, Rory Sabbatini
-9 Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Chase Seiffert, Hideki Matsuyama, MJ Daffue

Best prices
8-13 J Thomas, 7-2 V Hovland, 13-2 C Morikawa, 33 K Streelman, 50 S Burns, 80 H Matsuyama, I Poulter, 100 bar

Final-round preview

A stop-start final round seems likely in Ohio, with thunderstorms set to be short and scattered throughout the day, so it may be difficult for players to find a rhythm. Hopefully all the bad weather just misses the venue and play can be completed comfortably, but a sunset time of 9pm local (2am UK) provides plenty of wriggle-room.

Justin Thomas, Racing Post Sport's 11-1 ante-post headline selection, has put himself in command of proceedings after a second consecutive round of 66, and the way the world number five has calmly picked Muirfield Village apart has been hugely impressive.
Thomas has not holed a great deal – with Thursday particularly frustrating – but he has managed his game in exemplary fashion to craft a Sunday advantage. Bookmakers have probably got the price about right with 8-13 about a JT WCO success.

Some may argue that is an underestimation of his hopes given he magnificent frontrunning record – Thomas has won eight of the 12 events at which he had a lead or co-lead going into the final round. But the last time he led entering Sunday – in the Mexico Championship in February – a dismal 73 dropped him to sixth spot. That was a similar leaderboard to this, with two pursuers taking close order and a gap to the rest.

Given the quality of Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, Thomas-backers, although confident their man is one of the most prolific champions in the game, will know this is a long way from over, and bullish punting tactics are best avoided at this stage.

The continued softening of the course from storms may mean Hovland becomes by far a bigger threat to Thomas than Morikawa. A lack of punch off the tee when compared to other members of the elite, as well as an inconsistent putting stroke, are the two weaknesses of Morikawa. He took advantage of a perfect read from Kevin Streelman to birdie the 18th in round three and revive his challenge, but giving a three-shot start to Thomas provides the proverbial mountain to climb.

Hovland is a power-packed birdie machine who could quickly eat into his two-shot deficit. He was three over par through ten holes this week, but has blitzed his way to 14 under in typically cavalier style. The Puerto Rico Open champion is an awesome ball-striker who should stay close to Thomas if his far less convincing short-game holds up.

The Thomas-Hovland dual forecast is 11-8 with Sky Bet, which is a fair deal given the Norwegian has a three-shot advantage over those in fourth. If Morikawa treads water in the final group, the event may turn into a question of whether Thomas can outgun Hovland. The four par-fives will be crucial, as Hovland is a player who always has eagle potential. He has made 11 this season – second highest on Tour.

Final-round threeball punters are advised to take a chance on Talor Gooch, the outsider in the 12.33pm match. Gooch has a strong game for Muirfield Village, where approach-shots are so important. He is 13th for strokes-gained-on-approach this week, and he was 15th on the whole PGA Tour in 2019, so the Oklahoma man is comfortable on layouts like this one. Mackenzie Hughes and Henrik Norlander are eminently beatable and 21-10 Gooch is a price full of juice.

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