Steve Palmer's WGC-Mexico Championship final-round preview, best bets, free tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Best bets

Tommy Fleetwood to win threeball
2pts 5-6 Sky Bet

Rory McIlroy to win threeball
1pt 11-8 bet365, Betway

Justin Thomas to win WGC-Mexico Championship
1pt Evens general

Story so far

Justin Thomas is in pole position going into the final round of the WGC-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec, having reached 15 under par through 54 holes.

Thomas, a best-price 11-1 for the title ante-post in the bookmaking community and freely available at 14 on the exchanges, has improved his score by a shot each day. Rounds of 67, 66 and 65 – with his Saturday effort including eight birdies – have sent the world number four to the leaderboard summit.

Thomas has become a general even-money chance to convert his one-shot advantage into the second WGC victory of his career, while some firms go odds-on. He missed the cut in the Genesis Invitational last week, but has bounced back in style.

Erik van Rooyen and Patrick Reed are tied for second place, with a three-shot gap to a high-class trio sharing fourth spot – Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau. First-round pacesetter and long-time favourite, McIlroy, has faltered since his opening 65, while Rahm recovered from a slow start to the event by firing a course-record 61 in round three, a sizzler which included a hole-in-one at the 17th.

Leaderboard
-15 Justin Thomas
-14 Erik van Rooyen, Patrick Reed
-11 Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau
-10 Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey

Best prices
Evens J Thomas, 7-2 P Reed, 13-2 E Van Rooyen, 10 R McIlroy, 14 J Rahm, 25 B DeChambeau, 55 P Casey, 80 T Hatton, 90 bar

Final-round preview

Justin Thomas has demonstrated how quickly an elite player can find his A-game in the wake of a missed cut by performing superbly over the first three days of the WGC-Mexico Championship.

There has been nothing fluky about the ascent of Thomas to the head of affairs – he has been magnificent after five days of practice – and memories of a Genesis Invitational struggle alongside Tiger Woods last week are fading fast.

Thomas has been hitting his ball well and putting well – obviously an effective combination – and 15 under par is a wonderful score when you consider that only half of this 72-runner field have managed to break par for 54 holes. Thirty two players are over par.

Thomas, winner of 12 PGA Tour titles at the age of 26, is a prolific champion who fully deserves his short price going into Sunday at Chapultepec. This is a course where he has form figures of 5-2-9 and a 1 may be about to get added to that glittering CV. He has twice carded a 62 on this track and has the ability to overwhelm the layout.

The task of Thomas was made easier by the disappointing finish to round three of Rory McIlroy, who covered the final six holes in one over par. McIlroy has taken his game to a new level, producing drives of jaw-dropping quality, but he has given Thomas a four-shot start for Sunday. McIlroy, who gunned one drive 412 yards in the thin Chapultepec air in round three, obviously has the firepower to overcome his deficit, but the leader does not seem likely to make many mistakes, with hot, sunny, calm weather forecast.

Racing Post Sport followers are in good shape, with Thomas and McIlroy the ante-post selections, and the 35-1 dual-forecast recommendation still has hope of success.

Thomas seems the likely victor and evens is a fair price. This is rarefied air in more ways than one for Erik van Rooyen, who is chasing a PGA Tour breakthrough on a leaderboard full of superstars, while Patrick Reed may not have the class off the tee to live with a free-flowing Thomas.

Jon Rahm may struggle to follow his Saturday fireworks with something similar – back-to-back rounds in the low 60s are extremely rare – while Bryson DeChambeau was back blaming the Chapultepec greens for his limitations in round three. DeChambeau, who abused the Chapultepec practice putting green last year, was angrily poking his putter at poa annua when covering the final six holes of round three yesterday in three over par.

Reed seems the most likely to deny punters who backed the McIlroy-Thomas dual forecast, and the 15-8 available with Sky Bet about the Thomas-Reed dual forecast may interest some.

Final-round threeball punters are pointed towards Tommy Fleetwood, who has a strong record at Chapultepec and can outscore Justin Harding and Zach Murray in the 6.18pm (UK and Ireland time) contest, and McIlroy, who can boss the penultimate group (7.18pm) alongside DeChambeau and Rahm.

Thomas, Reed and Van Rooyen are scheduled on the tee at 7.30pm.

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