Steve Palmer's Valspar Championship third-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf red button, 12pm Saturday

Best bets

Adam Hadwin to win the Valspar Championship
2pts each-way 5-1 general

Adam Hadwin to win 6pm twoball
2pts 4-5 Betfair, Power

Sam Burns to win 5.50pm twoball
2pts 4-6 bet365, BoyleSports

Story so far

PGA Tour maiden Matthew NeSmith rocketed to the top of the Valspar Championship leaderboard in round two - the Carolinian firing a Friday 61 to go two shots clear.

NeSmith, a 28-year-old who has won once on the Korn Ferry Tour, is 279th in the world rankings. He was an ante-post 250-1 chance for the Copperhead Course gathering, but is only 5-1 heading into the weekend.

Favouritism, though, lies with Justin Thomas. The world number eight is four shots off the pace, alone in fifth place, and a best-price 7-2 to secure the third Florida victory of his PGA Tour career.

Defending Valspar champion, Sam Burns, is next in the betting at 9-2. Burns, who contended for a long way in the Players Championship at Sawgrass on Monday, is tied for third place. Adam Hadwin, another former Valspar champion, is alone in second spot.

Leaderboard
-14 Matthew NeSmith
-12 Adam Hadwin
-11 Scott Stallings, Sam Burns
-10 Justin Thomas
-9 Davis Riley
-8 Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman
-7 Troy Merritt, Martin Kaymer, Richy Werenski, Gary Woodland, Tommy Fleetwood, David Lipsky, Jhonattan Vegas, Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Best prices
7-2 J Thomas, 9-2 S Burns, 5 M NeSmith, A Hadwin, 16 X Schauffele, 18 S Stallings, 28 W Simpson, 30 L Oosthuizen, 33 M Fitzpatrick, 45 B Harman, 50 bar

Third-round preview

A number of big names may have run their race in the Valspar Championship. Jason Day, Abraham Ancer and Bubba Watson are definitely done, having missed the cut, while Viktor Hovland (11 shots behind), Collin Morikawa (ten) and Dustin Johnson (ten) require some serious Saturday fireworks to get back into contention.

Morikawa is enduring a miserable week with the putter - he lies 70th in the Valspar putting stats - so a sudden return to flat-stick form would give the world number one a chance of conjuring a low one. He is hitting his ball well enough to make inroads.

There is some class on the leaderboard, though, which will be difficult to shift. Justin Thomas is swinging well, while Sam Burns seems to adore the Copperhead greens. His putter purred on his way to Valspar glory last year and he has been rolling his rock with assurance again this week.

Thomas gets to play with a good friend in round three - a twoball with Davis Riley - which can only help his chance. Punters seeking to oppose Thomas and Burns will be hoping that a long Monday at Sawgrass will have some effect this weekend. Some burnout is feasible, although it should be noted that this is only the second Florida Swing outing for Thomas this year.

Thomas (7-2) and Adam Hadwin (5-1), whose only Tour title came in the Valspar, are the most attractive leaderboard options at the moment. But if Thomas endures another frustrating weekend with putter in hand - the club which has blighted him for ages - then Xander Schauffele and Matthew Fitzpatrick could take advantage from just off the pace.

With a sunny, calm weekend forecast - and the course drying out - Presidents Cup star Hadwin at 5-1 is nominated as the best option of all. With each-way terms of a fifth the odds the first four places, Hadwin each-way backers can get a solid wager at 5-1.

The Canadian is impressing in all statistics, aside from driving distance, which will probably become less of an issue over the weekend.

Hadwin can beat a nervous Matthew NeSmith in the final twoball (6pm UK and Ireland time), while Burns could be put in a double (5.50pm against Scott Stallings).

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