Steve Palmer's Valspar Championship predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course on the PGA Tour as Steve Palmer seeks to make it five winners in six weeks after Cameron Smith's 33-1 triumph in The Players Championship.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 11.40am on Thursday

Best bets

Collin Morikawa
4pts each-way 11-1 bet365

Matthew Fitzpatrick
2pts each-way 33-1 Hills

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt each-way 66-1 bet365

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An epic Players Championship at Sawgrass could have a significant impact on this week's Valspar Championship at Copperhead. After five days of draining action in the mega-bucks Players, the likes of Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Sam Burns and Tyrrell Hatton are asked to go to post again at another tough Florida venue.

The Florida Swing has been a grind, with PGA National, Bay Hill and Sawgrass destroying scorecards, and preference this week is for fresher players, able to concentrate fully for 72 holes.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Collin Morikawa 11-1

The best 72-hole total at Copperhead in five of the last seven Valspars has been ten under par or worse - the Florida Swing is ending with another difficult challenge - and Collin Morikawa seems best placed to handle the test.

While others have arrived at Copperhead jaded, Morikawa's schedule has allowed him to make a strong bid for Valspar glory. Sawgrass was his only other Florida Swing engagement - and he was able to leave early after getting on the wrong side of the draw and missing the cut by two shots.

There was no disgrace in failing at Sawgrass - the draw-bias was heavy and Morikawa was blown away in strong winds - and he still beat Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka.

Morikawa is thrilled with the state of his game and he finished runner-up in the Genesis Invitational in his pre-Sawgrass outing. Post-Christmas Covid meant he made a sluggish start to 2022, but he is swinging superbly heading into Majors season, sensing the opportunity to overtake Jon Rahm at the top of the world rankings.

The test of precision provided by Copperhead is ideal for Morikawa, who lies tenth in the par-three scoring-average stats, able to make merry at this course's five par-threes. He won in Florida last year - WGC at The Concession - and more Sunshine State success may beckon on Sunday.

Next best bet

Matthew Fitzpatrick 33-1

The Sawgrass draw was also unkind on Matt Fitzpatrick, who carded a pair of 74s to join Morikawa on four over par. The missed cut enhances the chance of Valspar success. Copperhead sets up well for both Morikawa and Fitzpatrick. The Sheffield man missed the cut on his only previous visit (2018), but he was in poor form around that event.

Much better can be expected this week, given PGA Tour form figures of 6-10-9 prior to Sawgrass. Florida-based Fitzpatrick, with ace caddie Billy Foster alongside and the added inspiration of his younger brother Alex Fitzpatrick teeing up on a sponsors invite, can go close to a maiden PGA Tour title.

Other selection

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 66-1

Failure to qualify for the Players Championship could work in Christiaan Bezuidenhout's favour. The ever improving South African was able to get to Copperhead early and the Valspar represents an excellent chance for a PGA Tour breakthrough.

Bezuidenhout, who has three top-20s to his name at Bay Hill and fired a 65 at Sawgrass in 2020 before that Players was abandoned, relishes the Florida Swing. The three-time European Tour champion is accurate, possesses a sharp short-game, and can thrive at Copperhead.

Players to note

Xander Schauffele
The Californian is desperate to end a long PGA Tour victory drought and the Valspar is a solid chance. He missed the cut from the wrong side of the Sawgrass draw last week.

Brandon Wu
A second-round 66 in the Honda Classic was followed by third place in the Puerto Rico Open - Wu's PGA Tour career has had a kickstart.

Copperhead course guide

Course Copperhead, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida
Prize money $7.8m ($1.242m to the winner)
Length 7,340 yards
Par 71 - four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players taking part (world ranking in brackets) Collin Morikawa (2), Viktor Hovland (3), Justin Thomas (8), Xander Schauffele (9), Dustin Johnson (10)

Course records- 72 holes 266 Vijay Singh (2004) 18 holes 61 Padraig Harrington (2012)

Course winners taking part Sean O'Hair, Gary Woodland, Luke Donald, Kevin Streelman, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Hadwin, Paul Casey (twice), Sam Burns

When to bet By 11.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 11.40am on Thursday

Time difference Florida is four hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Players Championship 1 C Smith (33-1), 2 A Lahiri (1,000-1), 3 P Casey (70-1), 4 K Kisner (160-1), 5 K Bradley (150-1), T6 H Varner (150-1), R Knox (225-1), D Ghim (250-1), T9 S Straka (250-1), A Hadwin (250-1), V Hovland (20-1), D Johnson (35-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview This is a tough, tree-lined layout, opened in 1972 and hosting for the 21st time (no tournament in 2001 or 2020). It opens with a double-dogleg par-five, the fifth is an uphill par-five of 605 yards to a small, well-bunkered green, while the 235-yard eighth is the longest of the five par-threes. The most difficult hole is the par-four 16th, where water runs down the right of the fairway. It starts what is known as the Snake Pit – a hugely demanding closing three-hole stretch. The tournament was formerly known as the Tampa Bay Classic, Chrysler Championship, PODS Championship, Transitions Championship and Tampa Bay Championship

Story of last year Sam Burns became a PGA Tour champion by repelling Keegan Bradley to triumph by three shots

Weather forecast Wednesday storms should soften the course, before sunny, pleasant competition conditions, with light breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Copperhead puts a premium on solid driving and straight hitting, which is why the likes of KJ Choi, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Kevin Streelman and John Senden flourished at the layout in the past

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Only one Valspar winner failed to finish in the top 20 of the putting statistics

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