Steve Palmer's Valspar Championship predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from noon Thursday

Best bets

Corey Conners
3pts each-way 20-1 general
Justin Rose
2.5pts each-way 35-1 Power
Keith Mitchell
1pt each-way 150-1 bet365, Sporting Index
Peter Uihlein
1pt each-way 150-1 Sporting Index

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Dustin Johnson putted well in the final round of the RBC Heritage last time out and is teeing up in the Valspar Championship this week hoping for a further confidence boost on the greens. The world number one has been in a mini-slump, loose with the driver and struggling on the dancefloors, but 13th place at the Harbour Town Links after putting a new putter in his bag on the Saturday night could be the start of a revival.

Johnson, who finished fifth in the 2019 Valspar, is second in the betting behind Justin Thomas. The last PGA Tour event in Florida - the Players Championship - was won by Thomas. He flopped in the Match Play and the Masters, though, and both of the market leaders can be left alone at the prices.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Corey Conners 20-1

Super-consistent Canadian Corey Conners appears to have an excellent opportunity to claim an overdue second PGA Tour title this week. The greens-in-regulation machine has developed one of the most dependable swings on the circuit - balanced, powerful, accurate and elegant - and his magnificent long game should make him a serious contender for Valspar glory.

In his only previous appearance in the Valspar - in 2018 when he was ranked 596th in the world - Conners led after each of the first three rounds. The pressure understandably got to him on the Sunday and he dropped to 16th place, but that week showed how well suited he is to this assignment.

Conners played two events on the Florida Swing this year, finishing third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seventh in the Players Championship, then he had a strong weekend for 14th place in the Texas Open, tied for eighth place in the Masters and was fourth in the RBC Heritage last time out.

The 29-year-old has finished in the top 20 in nine of his last 11 strokeplay starts. He has fully established himself in the top 50 of the world rankings and become one of the best ball-strikers on the planet.

Next best bet

Justin Rose 35-1

Seventh place in the Masters was a confidence-building effort for Justin Rose and the former world number one can confirm his resurgence by contending for the Valspar title. Rose had a long time off before the Masters, recovering from a back injury before getting several range sessions in with coach Sean Foley. The pair parted company for a few months, but Rose reappointed Foley and is feeling much more comfortable with his swing as a result.

Last week provided further evidence that Rose may be getting back to his best. He arrived at the Zurich Classic with a badly out-of-form partner - Henrik Stenson - but they managed to tie for 11th place in New Orleans. This week Rose tees up at a track where he can boast three top-ten finishes, most recently when finishing fifth in the 2018 Valspar. The 2013 US Open champion and 2018 FedEx Cup winner is a proven Copperhead performer showing signs of life at the age of 40.

Other selections

Keith Mitchell 150-1

Peter Uihlein 150-1

Complete a four-pronged attack with two lively outsiders. Keith Mitchell was the stand-out performer in the Zurich Classic last week, essentially carrying Brandt Snedeker all week, and the pair flirted with the lead on Sunday before finishing fourth. Mitchell made back-to-back eagles in the Saturday fourballs to propel his team up the leaderboard.

The 29-year-old hinted at a return to form in his last start as an individual - he finished 17th in the Texas Open. He relishes the greens in Florida and his lone PGA Tour victory came in the 2019 Honda Classic. Mitchell has had two top-six finishes at Bay Hill and his only previous Valspar spin resulted in 11th place when he was ranked outside the world's top 600.

Peter Uihlein, the 2010 US Amateur champion and former world number one amateur, has won on the European Tour, but is still awaiting a PGA Tour breakthrough. There are grounds for thinking it could come on Sunday, given the way he has burst into form.

Uihlein finished runner-up in a Korn Ferry Tour event a month ago, then won on the Korn Ferry Tour the week before last. In the Zurich Classic, he partnered Richy Werenski to third place on Sunday, finishing only a shot outside of the playoff. Uihlein is based in Florida and good enough to make an impact at Copperhead.

Players to note

Jason Kokrak
The slugger finished second in the last Valspar and has a superb record at the track. He arrives there as a PGA Tour champion for the first time and excelled on the Florida Swing this year.

Paul Casey
The Englishman is going for three Valspar victories in a row. He won the Dubai Desert Classic in January and must be respected at his favourite Stateside venue.

Sungjae Im
The Korean, Honda Classic champion last year and fourth in the last Valspar, has a superb record in Florida and seems likely to feature on the leaderboard.

Max Homa
The Florida-based Californian has never made a cut in the Valspar, but his two PGA Tour wins came at stiff ball-striking tests (Quail Hollow and Riviera), and his self-belief is higher than ever.

Copperhead course guide

Course Copperhead, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida
Prize money $6.9m ($1.206m to the winner)
Length 7,340 yards
Par 71
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 266 Vijay Singh (2004) 18 holes 61 Padraig Harrington (2012)

Course winners taking part KJ Choi (twice), Sean O'Hair, Gary Woodland, Luke Donald, Kevin Streelman, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Hadwin, Paul Casey (twice)

When to bet By noon on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from noon on Thursday

Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Zurich Classic 1 M Leishman & C Smith (12-1), 2 L Oosthuizen & C Schwartzel (33-1), 3 R Werenski & P Uihlein (90-1), T4 B Horschel & S Burns (25-1), K Mitchell & B Snedeker (80-1), K Bradley & B Steele (35-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview This is a tough, tree-lined layout, opened in 1972 and hosting for the 20th time (no tournament in 2001 or 2020). It opens with a double-dogleg par five, the fifth is an uphill par five of 605 yards to a small, well-bunkered green, while the 235-yard eighth is the longest of the five par threes. The most difficult hole is the par-four 16th, where water runs down the right of the fairway. It starts what is known as the Snake Pit – a hugely demanding closing three-hole stretch. The tournament was formerly known as the Tampa Bay Classic, Chrysler Championship, PODS Championship, Transitions Championship and Tampa Bay Championship

The story of 2019 Paul Casey successfully defended his Valspar title, defeating Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen by a shot

Weather forecast Sunny, with high temperatures around 30C, and light to moderate breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Copperhead puts a premium on solid driving and straight hitting, which is why the likes of KJ Choi, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Kevin Streelman and John Senden flourished at the layout in the past

Key attribute Accuracy

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