Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the US PGA Championship at the Ocean Course, Kiawah Island.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland
4pts each-way 22-1 Hills

Will Zalatoris
2pts each-way 55-1 bet365

Branden Grace
1pt each-way 160-1 bet365

Bubba Watson
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365, Betfred

Keegan Bradley
1pt each-way 90-1 Sporting Index

Justin Rose
1pt each-way 80-1 bet365, Betfred

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Rory McIlroy destroyed the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island with a 13-under-par total in the soft conditions of the 2012 US PGA Championship, but the course is firmer for this week's edition, providing a much tougher assignment for the world's finest.

The second Major of the year starts in South Carolina on Thursday and McIlroy is all the rage after winning the Wells Fargo Championship last time out. The Northern Irishman putted superbly at Quail Hollow to end an 18-month victory drought, but it may be too early to say he has definitely turned a corner with his swing after the barren spell which preceded the Wells Fargo.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Viktor Hovland 22-1

There are many talented young Major maidens on the circuit, but none look better equipped to make the step up than magnificent Norwegian youngster Viktor Hovland, who can win the first of what could be several Major titles on Sunday.

The Ocean Course is a brutal tee-to-green assignment and Hovland has rapidly established himself as one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. He has already won twice on the PGA Tour and both of those victories - the Puerto Rico Open and the Mayakoba Classic - came on paspalum grass. Being proven on the leafy, sticky, unusual grass type found at Kiawah is a significant bonus for the seemingly fearless 23-year-old.

Hovland's first two Major appearances came when he was still an amateur, making his rock-solid Major form figures of 32-12-33-13-21 even more impressive. He relishes tough courses and the last time he competed on paspalum he was sixth in the Saudi International in February.

Hovland has finished in the top six in eight of his last 13 tournaments, so with bookmakers throwing such incredible each-way terms at punters this week, it makes sense to side with this increasingly consistent operator. Hardly anyone in the field has intimate knowledge of the Ocean Course, so Hovland's relative inexperience is not the handicap it is at more regular Tour venues.

Next best bet

Will Zalatoris 55-1

The last Major - the Masters - almost went the way of Will Zalatoris. A remarkable Augusta debut saw this rising star of the sport finish runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama, beaten by one shot. In the Major before the Masters, Zalatoris was sixth in the 2020 US Open, and the tough tracks used for the most prestigious events greatly suit the Texas-based Californian.

Zalatoris is a phenomenal ball-striker - long and straight - and he should churn out greens in regulation as normal this week. His high ball flight is ideal for coming into the raised greens of Kiawah and last week's AT&T Byron Nelson provided a decent warm-up. The 24-year-old finished 17th, getting better each day, closing with a pair of weekend 67s.

Zalatoris is a Wake Forest graduate - he was 2017 ACC Player of the Year when attending college in North Carolina - and it is entirely feasible that a Major breakthrough comes in South Carolina on Sunday.

Other selections

Branden Grace 160-1

Bubba Watson 100-1

Keegan Bradley 90-1

Justin Rose 80-1

Branden Grace got his career back on track when winning the Puerto Rico Open in February at a course with paspalum grass. And the South African's maiden PGA Tour title came in the RBC Heritage - at a Pete Dye design in South Carolina - so there are reasons for believing Kiawah Island is a good fit. He has strongly contended in Stateside Majors before - he has two top-five finishes in the US Open and two top fours in the US PGA - and this week he has his coach, Peter Berman, with him for the first time this year.

Bubba Watson has got emphatic credentials on Pete Dye designs - the enigmatic left-hander has won five times on Dye courses and lost a playoff for the 2010 US PGA on another one, Whistling Straits. There are great similarities between Whistling Straits and Kiawah Island and Watson was 11th in the 2012 US PGA at Kiawah.

Watson won his group at the WGC-Match Play before losing to an inspired Brian Harman, he finished 26th in the Masters, eighth in the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Scottie Scheffler, 13th in the Valspar and 18th at Quail Hollow. Given that encouraging recent form there is every reason to chance the two-time Major champion at juicy prices.

Two more experienced operators could enter the equation at healthy odds. Keegan Bradley, the 2011 US PGA champion, tied for third in the 2012 US PGA at Kiawah. He was second in the 2019 Travelers Championship on a Dye design and given how consistently he has been hitting his ball in recent weeks, the US PGA leaderboard seems well within his compass.

Complete the attack with a former world number one, former US Open champion and former FedEx Cup winner. Justin Rose has been showing signs of life at the age of 40 and can build on some excellent Kiawah form. He played in the 2003 World Cup for England at Kiawah, alongside Paul Casey, and finished second. Then Rose tied for third in the 2012 US PGA, one of four top-ten finishes he has notched in the tournament.

Rose set the early pace in the Masters a month ago, dropping to seventh place, and he can make an impact again this week. He won the Zurich Classic on a Dye design in 2015.

Kiawah Island course guide

Course Ocean Course, Kiawah Island Golf Resort, Kiawah Island, South Carolina
Prize money $11m ($1.98m to the winner)
Length 7,876 yards
Par 72
Field 156

The cut Lowest 70 scores and ties after 36 holes
Playoff Three holes of strokeplay, sudden-death thereafter

Course records- 72 holes 275 Rory McIlroy (2012) 18 holes 65 Seung-Yul Noh (2012)

Course winners taking part Padraig Harrington (1997 World Cup alongside Paul McGinley), Rory McIlroy (2012 US PGA)

When to bet By midday Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm Thursday

Time difference South Carolina is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Betfred British Masters 1 R Bland (175-1), 2 G Migliozzi (80-1), T3 D Coupland (400-1), M Korhonen (100-1), A Meronk (80-1), T6 D Burmester (25-1), A Sullivan (35-1); AT&T Byron Nelson 1 K-H Lee (200-1), 2 S Burns (33-1), T3 P Kizzire (150-1), D Berger (16-1), S Stallings (150-1), C Schwartzel (66-1)

Spectator quota 10,000 per day

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Pete Dye-designed Ocean Course has been described as "links-like" but plays nothing like a traditional links and the juicy paspalum grass creates a sticky surface which does not provide much run on the ball. Of course, it has a coastal location, overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, so wind speeds can have a huge bearing on scoring. It is a long layout, with heavy rough, and fairly flat greens, many of which are elevated. The venue opened just a few weeks before the 1991 Ryder Cup there - the infamous 'War by the Shore' which USA edged 14.5-13.5 - and the 1997 and 2003 World Cups were also staged at Kiawah. The 2012 US PGA - which provided an eight-shot victory for Rory McIlroy in August that year - is the only previous Major at the track. The Harbour Town Links is another Dye design in South Carolina. PGA West (American Express), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Whistling Straits (2004, 2010, 2015 US PGAs), Crooked Stick (2012, 2016 BMW Championship) and Austin Country Club (WGC-Match Play from 2016 onwards) are the other noteworthy PGA Tour venues designed by Dye. Kiawah Island will play as the longest Major venue in history this week and is regarded by many as the most difficult course in America. Pre-tournament rain took the sting out of it in 2012 - and 20 players finished under par - but the greens should be firmer this time. The first three holes present the opportunity of a fast start, but the course plays tough from the fourth hole onwards, with a series of long par-four and par-three holes to the hut. In 2012, five of the course's six most difficult holes were on the back nine, so there is scope for players to implode down the stretch. The par-five holes (the second, seventh, 11th and 16th) are the best birdie chances.

The story of last year Collin Morikawa became a Major champion, winning the US PGA at his first attempt, securing a two-shot victory over Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson

Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with temperatures peaking at 30C on Sunday and only gentle to moderate breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge The Ocean Course is an extreme test of ball-striking, demanding power, precision, an ability to work the ball both ways, and comfort in a breeze. The greens are relatively small and not particularly undulating, so solid tee-to-green operators can be favoured.

Key attribute Power

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