Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship final-round preview, golf betting tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Sunday

Best bets

Bryson DeChambeau top American
1pt each-way 16-1 Hills

Billy Horschel to win twoball
2pts 4-5 general

Will Zalatoris to win twoball
2pts 8-11 general

Story so far

Phil Mickelson leads the US PGA Championship by a shot going into the final round at the Ocean Course, Kiawah Island, South Carolina - the 50-year-old in position to cause a 250-1 upset.

Mickelson was generally available at those huge pre-tournament odds, having missed seven of his last 15 cuts prior to this week, but he is a best-price 16-5 with 18 holes to play at Kiawah.

Lefty went into round three tied for the lead and at 12-1, forging five shots ahead early in the back-nine, before stumbling coming home. A bogey at the 12th was followed by a double-bogey at the 13th, drawing the veteran closer to the chasing pack.

Mickelson is bidding to become the oldest Major winner in history - a mark set by 48-year-old Julius Boros in the 1968 US PGA. Phil The Thrill is gunning for a second US PGA title and a sixth Major victory, his last coming in the 2013 Open.

Favouritism, though, is in the hands of Brooks Koepka, who will have won three of the last four US PGAs if he gets the job done at Kiawah. Koepka, champion in 2018 and 2019 and a four-time Major victor, is alone in second place.

Only 12 players have managed to cover 54 holes under par. Koepka, 45-1 pre-tournament and 4-1 after two rounds, is a general 6-4 market leader going into the denouement.

Leaderboard
-7 Phil Mickelson
-6 Brooks Koepka
-5 Louis Oosthuizen
-4 Kevin Streelman
-3 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Branden Grace
-2 Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland
-1 Paul Casey, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners
Par Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Charley Hoffman, Jason Kokrak, Harry Higgs, Richy Werenski

Selected others
+1 Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama
+2 Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith
+3 Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland
+4 Justin Rose, Lee Westwood
+5 Rory McIlroy

Best prices
13-8 B Koepka, 16-5 P Mickelson, 6 L Oosthuizen, 16 K Streelman, 18 B DeChambeau, 25 B Grace, C Bezuidenhout, 35 J Niemann, 40 G Woodland, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Phil Mickelson has won just twice in the last seven years, and there was a fragility over the closing seven holes of round three yesterday which suggested frontrunning to a sixth Major title at a venue as demanding as Kiawah Island may prove too much.

If this was Augusta, where Mickelson has won three Masters and can fire gaily at flags in typically fine weather, the legendary left-hander could be fancied to get the job done. But this is the Ocean Course at Kiawah - a long, brutal, breezy, danger-strewn layout - and a much tougher assignment for the popular Californian.

It is difficult to be confident about Mickelson's chances of converting this chance. But the bright outlook for Lefty fans is that it is difficult to be confident about the chances of anyone just behind him on the leaderboard, either.

Brooks Koepka is being hugely respected in the market as the modern king of the US PGA, but do punters really want to be taking 6-4 about a player finding it painful to even get his ball from the hole? Koepka has manfully shrugged off his fitness issues to set up a golden winning opportunity, but is far from comfortable after knee surgery in the middle of March.

Koepka, 38th in the putting statistics this week and looking vulnerable from short range, will be the pantomime villain in the final Kiawah twoball, with 99 percent of the gallery supporting Mickelson. Stewart Cink played the party-pooper role to perfection against Tom Watson in the 2009 Open, but that was only a four-hole playoff alongside Watson. A passionate gallery is capable of unsettling Koepka over 18 holes.

Louis Oosthuizen from the penultimate group holds more appeal than Mickelson and Koepka at the prices - 6-1 with a two-shot deficit seems fair about the 2010 Open champion - but the South African lost confidence on the greens over the closing holes of round three. The early flat-stick form of Oosthuizen could be the key to whether he can secure a first Stateside success.

Anyone under-par can consider themselves in contention. Branden Grace, a pre-tournament Racing Post Sport 160-1 each-way recommendation, is still in the hunt from four shots behind. It is a shame that the Sunday weather forecast has softened - Grace loves a grind - but an 18th-hole birdie to sign off round three has left this gritty character in position to take advantage of any wobbling from the leaders.

A 7.10pm twoball alongside compatriot Christiaan Bezuidenhout seems ideal for Grace to settle into his rhythm and make a move towards Mickelson and Co. Punters not on ante-post should consider the 25-1 available going into the final round.

A charge from Bryson DeChambeau, five behind, would come as no surprise and 18-1 is tempting - a hot, sunny day, with light breezes is expected - but the 6-1 Oosthuizen and 25-1 Grace appear slightly better value.

Billy Horschel found top gear in round three and can be fancied to outscore Joel Dahmen in their 5.30pm twoball. A shade of odds-on seems generous about the WGC-Match Play champion, while Will Zalatoris should prove too solid for Ian Poulter (5.10pm). The final match of Mickelson and Koepka is due out at 7.30pm.

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