Steve Palmer's Tour Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Xander Schauffele to win FedEx Cup
5pts each-way 8-1 Betfred
Rory McIlroy to win FedEx Cup
3pts each-way 12-1 bet365
Billy Horschel to win FedEx Cup
0.5pt each-way 200-1 Hills

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Punters assessing what is now a 29-runner (Will Zalatoris withdrew with a back injury on Tuesday afternoon) Tour Championship field must decide whether to have their bets in the market which includes the FedEx Cup handicaps (Tour Championship/FedEx Cup winner) or in the separate Tour Championship 72-hole strokeplay winner betting which ignores the staggered start.

Preference is for concentrating entirely on the FedEx Cup, which is what the players will be doing. The competitors will have little idea of where they stand in the 72-hole scoring, so it is difficult to bet with confidence on that.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Xander Schauffele 8-1

The last two Tour Championships have been won by the player who started the event atop the leaderboard – Dustin Johnson turned his two-shot advantage into a three-shot victory in 2020, before Patrick Cantlay edged Jon Rahm by a shot 12 months ago.

Scottie Scheffler will take encouragement from recent East Lake history, but this is a new challenge for the FedEx Cup leader, and a best-price 5-2 is unattractive. Not only has he never been in this peculiar pole position before, he does not have much East Lake experience in comparison to his main rivals.

Scheffler has teed up in the Tour Championship only twice before. He was the second-best scorer on debut in 2020, but was the 17th-best last year. The Masters champion has looked less secure on the greens in recent months – fragile over short putts – so can be left alone at skinny odds for this unusual frontrunning mission.

Patrick Cantlay was awful when teeing up in the final first-round twoball at East Lake in 2019. Being at the front of the starting grid comes with an added pressure. That year, Cantlay and top seed Justin Thomas played defensively and poorly and were soon swallowed up by the chasing pack.

Cantlay obviously handled the challenge much better last year, but his East Lake record in general makes the 4-1 against his name this time an unappealing option. He was 20th and 21st under the old format, then only two players scored worse than him in the inaugural handicap event. Even in triumph last year, three players outscored him.

The most attractive wager by far, with alluring each-way terms of a fifth the odds the first five places available, is Xander Schauffele. The Californian has impeccable East Lake credentials and arrives this time with confidence coursing through his veins.

Schauffele won the Tour Championship on his debut in 2017, then was seventh in 2018. He was the second-best 72-hole scorer in the 2019 edition and the best 72-hole scorer in the 2020 event by a three-shot margin. Last year, he was the third-best 72-hole scorer, so in the last three years, a total of just three players have managed to outscore Schauffele over 72 holes at East Lake.

This week, from a six-under-par start, this cool dude can ease his way past Cantlay and Scheffler. Schauffele has been in superb form for four months. He won the Zurich Classic alongside Cantlay in April and has been back at his best since, winning the Travelers Championship in June, then the JP McManus Pro-Am and the Scottish Open. Last week, Schauffele was third in the BMW Championship, setting up a great opportunity for a first FedEx Cup success.

Next best bet

Rory McIlroy 12-1

Another player with an excellent East Lake record can make a move from just off the pace. Rory McIlroy won the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup in 2016, then in 2019 he was the lowest 72-hole scorer – a brilliant 13-under-par effort which saw him destroy his five-shot starting deficit and win the FedEx Cup by a four-shot margin.

This time McIlroy has arrived at East Lake in rock-solid form, with seven top-eight finishes in his last ten tournaments. The gifted Northern Irishman posted a top-eight in every Major this year, as well as winning the Canadian Open in June. From a four-under-par base, McIlroy can quickly get his name in the thick of things.

Other selection

Billy Horschel 200-1

With five places to fill, Billy Horschel is worth considering at a massive price, even though he has a nine-shot deficit to overcome. Horschel is another proven East Lake performer and his career highlight came with 2014 FedEx Cup glory at East Lake.

In 2018, he was runner-up to Tiger Woods and last year Horschel underlined his liking for this layout by ending the week as the seventh-best 72-hole scorer. The cocksure Floridian is going to need some magnificent golf to challenge from one under par, but his Memorial effort in June provides plenty of encouragement. On a difficult course, Horschel romped to a four-shot triumph, and this strong all-rounder can be a factor if he brings the same level to East Lake.

Players to note

Adam Scott
Fifth place in both the preceding FedEx Cup playoff events, featuring a brilliant up-and-down at the BMW's closing hole to qualify for the Tour Championship, make this former East Lake champion a likely charger from level par.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard is not used to being so far back on the grid, but could still make an impression from three under par. His driving is a key asset at East Lake and he has been perky in the playoffs.

Viktor Hovland
A closing 65 in the BMW, featuring an ace, provided further encouragement for the Norwegian, who may have turned a corner since contending in the Open. He could be lively from two under.

East Lake course guide

Course East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
Prize money $75m ($18m to the winner)
Length 7,346 yards
Par 70 – two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 29
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Cameron Smith (2), Patrick Cantlay (3), Rory McIlroy (4), Xander Schauffele (5)
Course records- 72 holes 257 Tiger Woods (2007) 18 holes 60 Zach Johnson (2007)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (twice), Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay

When to bet By 4.40pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.30pm on Thursday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – BMW Championship 1 P Cantlay (16-1), 2 S Stallings (125-1), T3 S Scheffler (16-1), X Schauffele (20-1), T5 KH Lee (150-1), C Conners (55-1), A Scott (60-1)

Format A handicap system has been in operation for the Tour Championship since 2019, with the FedEx Cup leader starting on ten under par, the second in the standings at eight under par, the third at seven under, fourth at six under, fifth at five under, sixth to tenth at four under, 11th to 15th at three under, 16th to 20th at two under, 21st to 25th at one under, and 26th to 30th at level par

Course type Parkland

Course overview East Lake is the curtain-closer to the PGA Tour season, with the most successful performers of the year ending their Stateside campaign in the Tour Championship. East Lake has hosted this event in 1998, 2000, 2002 and from 2004 onwards. The famous course was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross, but Rees Jones took charge of a redesign in 1994 and at the end of 2007 (he switched all the greens from bentgrass to Bermuda). It is extremely long for a par-70 and a SubAir drainage system means firm, fast greens are almost certain

Story of last year Patrick Cantlay edged Jon Rahm by a shot as the Californian successfully converted his ten-under-par start into victory. Rahm and Kevin Na tied for lowest 72-hole score

Weather forecast Warm, cloudy and calm for the most part, with a thunderstorm threat for the first two days

Type of player suited to the challenge The fairways are notoriously difficult to hit at East Lake, and the Bermuda rough is thick, so accurate drivers often prosper. There are no easy birdies, so players who like to grind out plenty of pars can flourish

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight The last four FedEx Cup champions finished sixth or better in one of the preceding playoffs events

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