Steve Palmer's Tour Championship final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event, 5pm Sunday

Best bets

Billy Horschel to win Tour Championship without handicaps
1pt each-way 12-1 Betfair, Hills, Power

Bryson DeChambeau to win twoball
2pts Evens Betfred

Story so far

Slowly but surely the Tour Championship field has strung out - there was a ten-shot gap between first to last before a ball was struck in anger and with 18 holes to play the deficit from the leader to the backmarker has extended to 22 shots.

Patrick Cantlay, who won the BMW Championship last Sunday to claim top spot in the FedEx Cup standings going into the Tour Championship, has doubled his score. Under the controversial handicap system, the Californian started the event on ten under and has used the first three rounds at East Lake, Georgia, to reach 20 under.

Jon Rahm, who had a four-shot deficit at the start of the week, has halved it through 54 holes. The world number one followed back-to-back 65s with a 68 to go into the denouement at 18 under.

Justin Thomas bogeyed the par-five 18th in round three to ruin an otherwise excellent day's work, leaving himself five behind Cantlay. The event has essentially become a four-runner race, with bookmakers going 1,500-1 bar the leading quartet.

The field was shorn to 29 players after Brooks Koepka withdrew with a wrist injury. Koepka struck a tree root at the tenth hole and has become a major doubt for the Ryder Cup, which starts the week after next.

Leaderboard
-20 Patrick Cantlay
-18 Jon Rahm
-15 Justin Thomas
-13 Kevin Na
-10 Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel

Best prices
4-5 P Cantlay, 7-5 J Rahm, 12 J Thomas, 150 K Na, 1,500 bar

Final-round preview

Kevin Na has surely not got the ability to overcome a seven-shot final-round deficit on a long, punishing par-70 which leaves him struggling for par every time he misses a fairway. If that is the case, the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup finale has become a three-runner contest with 18 holes to play.

Justin Thomas is probably a little shocked he is in such a good position on the leaderboard. Thomas has been lacking confidence and precision off the tee this week, finding only 22 of 42 fairways, and he has managed to stay in contention thanks to superb approach work and a behaving putter.

The tee-shot frailties of Thomas may deny him a serious crack at the Cup, not to mention having to get over the bodyblow of his bogey-six Saturday sign-off. With so little margin for error from five shots off the pace, Thomas is an unappealing option.

In-running punters are sadly left, then, with two short-price frontrunners from which to choose. It would be a shock if either Patrick Cantlay or Jon Rahm is not collecting the $15m prize for FedEx Cup glory.

Rahm was the headline 4-1 pre-tournament each-way recommendation in Racing Post Sport, with four places available, so something seriously ugly needs to happen for the Spaniard to fall out of the places. Many punters will be going into round four feeling they have a free win bet on Rahm, but those yet to get involved have a tough decision to make picking between Cantlay and Rahm.

As Saturday neared a conclusion, it seemed like Rahm was going to head into Sunday feeling best about their probable duel. Despite not playing anywhere near his potential - and despite falling four shots behind through ten holes of round three - Rahm had battled back to within one shot going up the 18th hole.

Neither Cantlay or Rahm played the 18th hole well, but Cantlay rolled in a long birdie putt which could prove hugely significant. A two-shot advantage always feels so much better than just one and that late smack in Rahm's stomach may have left a mark.

Bank balances could level the playing field a little though - this is the richest tournament in golf and the prize would surely mean more to Cantlay than Rahm. Cantlay lost two and a half years to injury earlier in his career and his PGA Tour earnings are more than $7m less than Rahm's, despite the fact Rahm is three years younger than him.

This would be the most prestigious title in Cantlay's career, while Rahm is the US Open champion and used to frying big fish. Perhaps the occasion will get to Cantlay more than Rahm on Sunday.

Rahm backers on each-way at 4-1 have no need to get further involved. The prices look just about right, with 7-5 Rahm a slightly more attractive option than the 4-5 Cantlay. Punters eager for a Sunday investment may prefer the 72-hole strokeplay market which does not recognise the pre-tournament handicaps. That is a much tighter contest with 18 holes to play.

Rahm leads by one from Thomas and Na, with Cantlay and Billy Horschel tied for fourth, and a four-shot gap to the rest.

Horschel, a former FedEx Cup champion who loves East Lake, looks the value option in this market. Playing without pressure and able to attack round four with freedom from ten shots off the outright pace, Horschel may go low enough to overcome his two-shot deficit in the 'without handicaps' market.

Cantlay and Rahm do not need fireworks to claim the main prize - a tight duel full of pars can be expected in the final twoball - so 12-1 about a potentially free-flowing Horschel in what looks a five-runner contest seems more than fair. Each-way terms are a third the first two.

It should not be underplayed how much of a lift the fact Brooks Koepka may miss the Ryder Cup due to injury will give to Bryson DeChambeau. The Ryder Cup would have been a great concern for DeChambeau, who failed to register a point as a rookie in 2018, and going into a locker room with arch-enemy Koepka would have been uncomfortable. With Koepka suddenly becoming a major doubt for the Ryder Cup, DeChambeau may have a spring in his step for Tour Championship Sunday. A small twoball wager - 6.25pm against Viktor Hovland - seems worthwhile at evens.

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