Steve Palmer's Spanish Open predictions and free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Spanish Open at Club de Campo de Villa Madrid on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Jon Rahm
8pts 5-2 BoyleSports

Adri Arnaus
2pts each-way 18-1 Betfair, Power

Lucas Bjerregaard
1pt each-way 80-1 bet365

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The DP World Tour staged two events in Spain just after the Masters - the ISPS Handa Championship and the Catalunya Championship - and this week's Spanish Open starts a three-week stretch in this great golfing country.

The Andalucia Masters at Valderrama is to come next week, followed by the Mallorca Open, but first national pride is at stake at Club de Campo de Villa de Madrid. A Spaniard has won the last three Spanish Opens and there seems a strong chance of that streak continuing on Sunday.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jon Rahm 5-2

The odds are understandably short about former world number one Jon Rahm completing a Spanish Open hat-trick this week. Last year's US Open champion seems a surefire contender at a track he destroyed with a five-shot success in the 2019 Spanish Open.

Punters should be sniffing around the enhanced win-only markets this week - Rahm is available at 5-2 with BoyleSports and 12-5 with bet365 - and they seem more than acceptable offers about the likely champion.

Rahm is up against a line-up which grossly lacks strength in depth. And a perfect weather forecast means the favourite should get a level playing field with which to exhibit his considerable superiority.

Rahm is a DP World Tour colossus with a sensational win rate in regulation tournaments on his home circuit. He has played in 20 regulation DP World Tour events and won six of them. He nearly always contends when dropping a grade from the PGA Tour to the DP World Tour and he has twice finished runner-up in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

Last month, Rahm closed with a majestic 62 to finish a shot shy of Shane Lowry in the BMW PGA, and that performance had been coming. Rahm was fifth in the FedEx-St Jude Championship in August, brilliant over the weekend of the BMW Championship in Delaware, then great for two rounds of the Tour Championship.

Rahm's A-game has slowly but surely returned in recent weeks and the darling of the Spanish galleries can complete his target on Sunday - matching the three-victory haul of his hero Seve Ballesteros in their national Open.

Rahm had mentally downed tools for the year when finishing 17th on his Madrid return in last year's Spanish Open - he was frazzled after losing a Tour Championship duel to Patrick Cantlay and then enduring a difficult Ryder Cup. This time, Rahm is nicely rested for this hat-trick mission, and can be trusted for a three-tournament week where all the market leaders look extremely strong.

Next best bet

Adri Arnaus 18-1

There may be only one man capable of defeating a fully focused and firing Rahmbo this week - his good pal Adri Arnaus. Rahm is an intimidating character for most players at this low-grade affair, but Arnaus relishes the opportunity to challenge his friend and has played well when drawn alongside him in the past.

Arnaus came agonisingly close to winning the Spanish Open last year, losing a playoff to Rafael Cabrera Bello, who received a hugely fortunate free drop from some heavy rough beside a cart-path on the 18th hole. It was a bitter pill to swallow for Arnaus, but he bounced back in magnificent fashion in the Catalunya Championship this spring, beating Oliver Bekker in a playoff to become a DP World Tour champion.

With course form of 4-2, Arnaus deserves great respect, and he could take encouragement from his Dunhill Links Championship effort last week. Like so many, he was blown away in the brutal Friday winds at Carnoustie, carding an 80. Great golf in more conventional weather over the other three days, though, meant a share of 22nd place.

Other selection

Lucas Bjerregaard 80-1

The Spanish Open is a great chance for Lucas Bjerregaard to bank a cheque which helps him save his DP World Tour playing rights. The Dane was 12th on his Club de Campo de Madrid debut last year and he likes this part of the world, having won his maiden Tour title in neighbouring Portugal.

Bjerregaard, third in the Cazoo Open in August and hitting his ball with assurance on his way to 20th place in the French Open last month, missed the cut in the Dunhill last week without doing much wrong. Like Arnaus, a Friday tee time at Carnoustie in terrible weather meant Bjerregaard's scorecard was ruined.

The more welcoming weather of Spain will allow Bjerregaard to open his shoulders and the two-time Tour champion is capable of joining Rahm and Arnaus on the leaderboard.

Players to note

Tommy Fleetwood
A share of 22nd place in the Dunhill last week was a disappointment for the Englishman, who is used to challenging more seriously at St Andrews. He missed some tiddlers in Scotland and is making his Club de Campo Villa de Madrid debut this week.

Min Woo Lee
The inconsistent Aussie is one of the best players in this field, but he has not been able to string four rounds together lately, and tied 39th on his Madrid debut last year.

Club de Campo de Villa Madrid course guide

Course Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Prize money €1.75m (€297,500 to the winner)
Length 7,112 yards
Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (6), Tommy Fleetwood (30), Adri Arnaus (71), Pablo Larrazabal (72), Min Woo Lee (73)
Course records- 72 holes 261 Raphael Jacquelin (2005 Madrid Open) 18 holes 60 Ivo Giner (2005 Madrid Open)

Course winners taking part Raphael Jacquelin, Jon Rahm, Rafael Cabrera Bello

When to bet By 7.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Dunhill Links Championship 1 R Fox (70-1), T2 C Shinkwin (90-1), A Noren (33-1), T4 A Rozner (70-1), R McIlroy (9-2), 6 D Gavins (500-1), T7 T Hatton (16-1), R Mansell (110-1), N N Moller (250-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Javier Arana designed Black Course at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has hosted 13 European Tour events in the modern era – the Spanish Open in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2019 and 2021, the Madrid Open from 2001-2005, and the Madrid Masters in 2008. Raphael Jacquelin reached 23 under when winning the 2005 Madrid Open - and Jon Rahm was a shot worse than that in 2019 - so the DP World Tour stars face an easy assignment this week. There are only three par-fives – the fourth, seventh and 14th – but all are there for the taking with straight hitting. And three short par-fours – the eighth, 15th and 18th – are also great birdie opportunities. The 505-yard par-four first hole is the most challenging. The tree-lined, undulating track has small greens

Story of last year Rafael Cabrera Bello enjoyed a fortunate late free drop from heavy rough on his way to a playoff victory over fellow Spaniard Adri Arnaus

Weather forecast Sunny and pleasant, with hardly any breeze, for all four days

Type of player suited to the challenge Club de Campo looks vulnerable, with perfect weather expected, so a hot putter and four low scores are probably going to be needed for success

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight The last two DP World Tour events staged in Spain were won by a Spaniard - and the last three Spanish Opens were won by a Spaniard

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