Steve Palmer's South African Open predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the South African Open at Blair Atholl on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday

Best bets

Charl Schwartzel
4pts each-way 22-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Dean Burmester
4pts each-way 12-1 general

Tom McKibbin
1pt each-way 90-1 bet365

Jayden Schaper
1pt each-way 60-1 Betfred

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Branden Grace is being shown great respect in the South African Open market, but he was suffering with injury in the final weeks of the LIV Golf season and threw in a stinker of a final round when contending for the Nedbank Challenge last time out.

Grace makes no appeal at 12-1 as he bids to win a second SA Open, while Thriston Lawrence is probably running short of energy at the end of a busy campaign.

Lawrence finished sixth at this week's venue in a Sunshine Tour event last year, so deserves respect, but taking in the Nedbank Challenge, DP World Tour Championship, Joburg Open, SA Open is a hectic schedule for the big man.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Charl Schwartzel 22-1

The floodgates are opening on the DP World Tour with LIV golfers winning trophies recently. Adrian Otaegui won the Andalucia Masters in October, Cameron Smith triumphed in the Australian PGA on Sunday, and this week Charl Schwartzel could be lifting silverware in the South African Open.

Schwartzel is desperate to win his national title at some stage in his career having come close on several occasions, and motivation is high as he tees up in the city of his birth this week. The Johannesburg man will be thrilled that Blair Atholl has been selected to host the event.

This course is uncharted terrain for most of the field, but Schwartzel used to live on the estate, is still a member of the club and knows the layout like the back of his hand. He is the unofficial course record holder, having carded a round of 60 in a social fourball with some pals.

The length of Blair Atholl is no issue for Schwartzel, who remains one of the longest drivers in the game, and his LIV Golf form suggests he can make a serious impact this week. He won the first LIV event in London and more recently has finished seventh in Chicago and ninth in Jeddah. The 38-year-old played well in the Miami LIV finale and his putting stroke has looked solid.

The former Masters champion has won eight DP World Tour titles in South Africa, including two Joburg Opens, and there is nobody in this field with such an impressive CV.

Next best bet

Dean Burmester 12-1

The chances of a Schwartzel versus Dean Burmester Sunday showdown seem high. Spectators could be treated to the sight of these two power-packed South Africans muscling their way along this vast layout.

Burmester has not teed up in South Africa since finishing runner-up in the Steyn City Championship in March. He was gutted he let Shaun Norris get the better of him in that - and Burmester lost his form for a while - but from July onwards this slugger has taken his game to a new level.

A pair of top-fives in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals meant Burmester earned a PGA Tour card and he started the new season with fourth place in the Sanderson Farms Championship. He was 11th in the Open in the summer and has rocketed up to world number 60.

The 33-year-old has won eight times on the Sunshine Tour, including the 2017 Tshwane Open, which was co-sanctioned with the European Tour. A third DP World Tour title could be coming on Sunday given how dreamy this set-up is for the Bloemfontein-based bomber.

Burmester is moving to Florida in the new year to focus on the PGA Tour and he may head to the Sunshine State as the South African Open champion.

Other selections

Tom McKibbin 90-1

Jayden Schaper 60-1

Complete a four-pronged attack with two talented youngsters - Tom McKibbin and Jayden Schaper.

McKibbin plays out of Holywood Golf Club, where Rory McIlroy first made his name, so comparisons between the two Northern Irish lads are inevitable. Time will tell as to whether McKibbin is the new McIlroy, but the 19-year-old is certainly blessed with bundles of ability.

He has made great strides this year and his progress started in South Africa, where he finished third in the Cape Town Open in February and seventh in the Jonsson Workwear Open in Durban. A brilliant summer on the Challenge Tour followed, he was tenth in the ISPS Handa World Invitational on the DP World Tour, then last week McKibbin was back in South Africa to finish 18th in the Joburg Open.

McKibbin has a DP World Tour card in his pocket for this season, so is unlikely to feel as many jitters as fellow 19-year-old Casey Jarvis did when he hit the front in Johannesburg at the weekend. Jarvis, ninth in the Joburg Open, could go well again this week, but preference is for Schaper, who finished strongly for 18th place at Houghton GC on Sunday.

Nobody outscored Schaper in the final round of the Joburg Open and this Sunshine Tour leaderboard regular can stay among the birdies. He finished 12th in the Blair Atholl Championship on the Sunshine Tour last year.

Players to note

Wilco Nienaber
The dimensions of Blair Atholl provide Nienaber with the perfect stage to show off his prodigious length. He is without a DP World Tour card.

James Hart du Preez
Another powerhouse who will be delighted his national Open is being staged at Blair Atholl. A 300-1 chance worth considering.

Blair Atholl course guide

Course Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate, Lanseria, Johannesburg, South Africa
Prize money $1.5m ($250,000 to the winner)
Length 8,233 yards
Par 72 - five par-fives; eight par-fours; five par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Dean Burmester (60), Thriston Lawrence (90), Adrian Otaegui (95), Rasmus Hojgaard (109), Oliver Bekker (112)
Course records - 72 holes 276 Luke Brown (2021 Blair Atholl Championship) 18 holes 64 Thriston Lawrence (2021 Blair Atholl Championship)

Course winner taking part Luke Brown (2021 Blair Atholl Championship)

When to bet By 4.20am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Joburg Open 1 D Bradbury (225-1), 2 S Valimaki (50-1), T3 C Bezuidenhout (7-1), D Van Tonder (40-1), 5 L De Jager (33-1), T6 D Whitnell (45-1), H Bruiners (300-1), JJ Senekal (500-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Blair Atholl is the third-longest course in the world, designed by Gary Player, who lived on the estate for more than 20 years. The venue is at altitude, which means balls fly further, but the holes obviously require lusty hitting. The 14th, 15th and 16th are the longest collective trio of par-fours in the world (524, 566 and 560 yards), providing a stiff test for players down the stretch. Four of the five par-fives are at least 606 yards apiece. The shortest par-three is 197 yards. Wide fairways help the competitors, but Crocodile River runs through the course and 11 holes feature a water hazard, and there are several elevation changes to add to the challenge. The 2021 Blair Atholl Championship on the Sunshine Tour was the first pro event staged there

Story of last year Daniel van Tonder edged Oliver Bekker by a shot at Gary Player Country Club in an event which was sanctioned only by the Sunshine Tour

Weather forecast Sunny with light breezes for the first two days, with the wind picking up slightly over the weekend, and temperatures around 25C throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Altitude is not enough to mask the fact that this giant track demands long hitting. Shorter drivers seem set to be left behind, which may explain why Christiaan Bezuidenhout has snubbed the tournament

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight The last four South African Opens have been won by a South African

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