Steve Palmer's South African Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 7am Sunday

Best bets

Dean Burmester without Thriston Lawrence and Clement Sordet
1pt 8-1 BoyleSports

Wilco Nienaber without Thriston Lawrence and Clement Sordet
1pt 9-2 BoyleSports

Dean Burmester to win 6.40am threeball (4-6) and Wilco Nienaber (5-4) to win 6.50am threeball
1pt double BoyleSports, Hills

Story so far

Thriston Lawrence is 4-9 to win the South African Open after moving to 18 under par through 54 holes at Blair Atholl Estate, Johannesburg.

Lawrence, 22-1 ante-post, has carded rounds of 64, 67 and 67 to dominate the DP World Tour event, bidding to win his national title for a first time.

Lawrence won the Joburg Open at the end of last year for a DP World Tour breakthrough, following up with a second success in the European Masters in August. Having turned 26 before teeing off in round three, the birthday boy has set up a golden chance to complete a quickfire DP World Tour hat-trick.

Clement Sordet is alone in second place, two shots behind, with a further four-shot gap back to Jens Fahrbring in third. The market was headed by Dean Burmester and Branden Grace ante-post - Burmester is tied for eighth place, nine shots behind, while Grace retired when tailed off through 11 holes of round two.

Leaderboard
-18 Thriston Lawrence
-16 Clement Sordet
-12 Jens Fahrbring
-11 Ashun Wu
-10 Martin Simonsen, Wilco Nienaber, Christian Maas
-9 Dean Burmester, Deon Germishuys, Marcel Siem, Adrian Otaegui, Edoardo Molinari, Ross Fisher

Best prices
4-9 T Lawrence, 13-5 C Sordet, 40 A Wu, 45 J Fahrbring, 60 W Nienaber, 80 D Burmester, 150 bar

Final-round preview

Thriston Lawrence has been walking on air at Blair Atholl Estate this week and it is difficult to see the Mpumalanga man failing to become South African Open champion on Sunday afternoon.

Lawrence was the official Blair Atholl course-record holder coming into this event - he carded a 64 in the closing round of the Blair Atholl Championship on the Sunshine Tour last year - then he opened the South African Open with another 64.

Since that eight-under-par Thursday effort, Lawrence has been in command, and a birdie-birdie finish to round three shows he has maintained that early gallop. The world number 90 has put daylight between himself and the other South Africans.

The only question mark against Lawrence coming into this event was the fact that he had such a hectic schedule in the build-up. The Nedbank Challenge was followed by the DP World Tour Championship, then last week's Joburg Open, so a fourth consecutive week seemed likely to test his powers of concentration.

Like Min Woo Lee in the Australian Open though - also teeing up for a fourth consecutive week - Lawrence has kept enough in the tank to compete. Lee went from Brisbane to Melbourne on Monday, while Lawrence has stayed around the Johannesburg area, so batteries have been sufficiently charged for a title tilt.

Punters on Lawrence ante-post can be on great terms with themselves, while the rest of the betting community struggle for a Sunday gameplan. Clement Sordet is a five-time Challenge Tour champion - his latest victory coming in South Africa in March - but the Frenchman is 362nd in the world rankings. Recent efforts have been steady but unspectacular - and giving Lawrence a two-shot headstart means he requires plenty of Sunday sparkle.

Wilco Nienaber and Dean Burmester have the length and ability to destroy Blair Atholl - with five par-fives to gun at this dynamic duo will be hunting eagles. From eight and nine shots behind, though, they surely need assistance from Lawrence to threaten the trophy.

Lawrence winning from Sordet, with Burmester and Nienaber getting close with no cigar seems a likely Sunday scenario. BoyleSports have opened a 'without Lawrence and Sordet' market, so Burmester and Nienaber appeal at 8-1 and 9-2 respectively.

Burmester and Nienaber can also be put in a threeballs double. Burmester, the highest-ranked player in the tournament, can boss Deon Germishuys and Christian Mass (6.40am UK and Ireland time), while Nienaber can do likewise to Ashun Wu and Martin Simonsen (6.50am).

The double pays 11-4 at 4-6 Burmester and 5-4 Nienaber. A sunny, breezy final day is forecast.

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