Steve Palmer's Sony Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11pm Sunday

Best bets

Kevin Kisner to win Sony Open
1pt 8-1 Sky Bet

Charles Howell to win threeball
1pt 7-5 Hills

Story so far

Brendan Steele was an ante-post 250-1 outsider for the Sony Open in Hawaii, but the three-time PGA Tour champion has shrugged off dire recent form to forge a three-shot lead through 54 holes at Waialae Country Club.

Steele, without a top-20 finish since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the second week of March, missed the cut in his only previous start in the Sony. His chances of success were far from obvious, but he typically plays well in a wind, and it has been howling at Waialae this week.

Steele leads by three shots from PGA Tour maiden Cameron Smith, with three-time Tour winner Kevin Kisner a shot further off the pace, alone in third spot. Webb Simpson, the highest-ranked player left in the competition, is tied for fourth place with Collin Morikawa.

Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed, as well as defending champion Matt Kuchar, missed the halfway cut on Friday.

Leaderboard
-12 Brendan Steele
-9 Cameron Smith
-8 Kevin Kisner
-7 Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, Ryan Palmer
-6 Mark Anderson, Sungjae Im, Bo Hoag, Keegan Bradley

Best prices
6-4 B Steele, 4 C Smith, 8 K Kisner, 9 W Simpson, 10 C Morikawa, 16 R Palmer, 22 S Im, 40 K Bradley, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Brendan Steele has improved his score each day at Waialae Country Club, with rounds of 68, 66 and 64, and he closed his Saturday sizzler with three consecutive birdies. The experienced Californian has grown more confident as the tournament has worn on and has set up a golden opportunity of a fourth PGA Tour victory.

The closing hat-trick of birdies changed the complexion of the event. Collin Morikawa, when interviewed immediately after his round, said he was “right where I want to be”, but that comment came when he was only two shots behind, before Steele kicked clear. The Sunday challenge has become much more difficult for Morikawa and the rest of the chasing pack.

Given Steele has not won since October, 2017, and he has a host of dangermen in pursuit, there is no urge to take 6-4 about him at this stage, but any punters on at the fancy pre-tournament prices should be on great terms with themselves.

Steele could hang on, but the threat posed by Cameron Smith, Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, Morikawa and others mean it is more likely that he is caught. Smith, Kisner, Simpson and Morikawa all seem likely to apply final-round pressure.

Smith, who won the Zurich Classic pairs event with Jonas Blixt, has never triumphed as an individual on the PGA Tour, but he is the closest on the leaderboard to Steele. Kisner, Simpson and Morikawa have already claimed silverware – Kisner has won a WGC, while Simpson is a Major champion. Outright punters looking to get involved at this stage need to evaluate what is the best value out of 4-1 Smith, 8-1 Kisner, 9-1 Simpson and 10-1 Morikawa. Steele and the rest seem too short in the betting.

All things considered, it is probably the 8-1 Kisner, who loves this track and fired a third-round 64 in which his putter started to purr. Kisner made his PGA Tour breakthrough in a similar assignment at the RSM Classic and he gained great confidence from winning the Dell Technologies Match Play title last year.

Pre-tournament 20-1 Racing Post Sport selection, Collin Morikawa, is still in the hunt and can hopefully finish strongly, but is five shots behind Steele. Morikawa is clearly good enough to overcome that deficit, but Kisner is a shot closer to the lead, has a spot in the final threeball, and must be respected.

Final-round threeball punters are pointed towards Charles Howell, a super consistent Sony Open performer, who can outscore Keegan Bradley and Henrik Norlander in the 10pm UK and Ireland time contest.

The final threeball of Steele, Smith and Kisner is scheduled on the tee at 10.30pm, with moderate breezes and sporadic light showers in store.

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