Steve Palmer's Sentry Tournament of Champions final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 9pm Sunday

Best bets

Collin Morikawa to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
4pts 11-4 general

Cameron Champ to beat Brian Gay
2pts 8-11 bet365

Story so far

Halfway pacesetter Harris English, two shots clear of the Sentry Tournament of Champions field after two rounds, has dropped into a share of the lead going into Sunday at the Plantation Course, Kapalua, Hawaii.

English continued his excellent form, carding a bogey-free third-round 66, but Ryan Palmer came home with a wet sail to also deliver a 21-under-par 54-hole total. Palmer birdied six of his closing seven holes.

English, 30-1 ante-post, and Palmer, a 100-1 chance, accessed the Tournament of Champions only because of a change to the qualifying criteria. For this edition, the PGA Tour have given a one-off Sentry exemption to anyone who earned a place in the 2020 Tour Championship. Previously the Sentry was reserved only for the tournament winners from the previous year.

English, a two-time PGA Tour champion in 2013 but winless since, is 9-4 favourite with 18 holes to play. Collin Morikawa, one shot off the pace and alone in third place, comes next in the betting.

Leaderboard
-21 Ryan Palmer, Harris English
-20 Collin Morikawa
-18 Daniel Berger
-17 Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas
-16 Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, Joaquin Niemann

Best prices
9-4 H English, 11-4 C Morikawa, 100-30 R Palmer, 10 D Berger, 11 J Thomas, 25 S Im, 35 P Cantlay, 66 J Niemann, 80 bar

Final-round preview

The two best players in the world drifted out of serious contention in round three of the Sentry - Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm are tied for tenth place, seven shots off the pace, needing a Sunday miracle - and world number three Justin Thomas has set himself a tough task from four shots behind.

The tournament sponsors are doubtless disappointed that Johnson and Rahm are not in the thick of things - and that Thomas may be falling just short in his title defence - but Collin Morikawa can rescue the reputation of the event by moving from third place to first down the stretch.

This is a 'winner's only' shootout with a proud history - a venue which has staged the event since 1999 and an honours board including the likes of Tiger Woods, David Duval, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els - and victory for Harris English or Ryan Palmer would tarnish the trophy.

It is not the fault of English or Palmer - they have eagerly gobbled up the opportunity presented to them - but both are on long winless droughts and seriously stretching the category of 'champion'. English won the QBE Shootout pairs event alongside Matt Kuchar just before Christmas, while Palmer claimed the 2019 Zurich Classic title with Rahm as his partner. Alone, though, English is winless since 2013 and Palmer since 2010.

Sunday nerves seem inevitable from both the leading duo - and Morikawa is ideally placed to take full advantage. The US PGA champion enjoyed a bogey-free 65 in round three and is 19 under par for his last 41 holes.

Morikawa tops the tee-to-green statistics this week and he has bolstered his reputation as arguably the best iron-player in the world. He almost holed in one at the par-three eighth, came home in five under par, made a textbook birdie at the 18th, and looks set to lift silverware at a location he has described as a "second home".

Morikawa has lots of family in Hawaii, is a regular visitor to the islands, and he first played the Plantation Course at the age of nine. Along with that comfort, the 23-year-old has brought a fierce determination to the course with him this week, uncharacteristically rattled by any errors and seemingly desperate for the trophy.

English showed the first signs of weakness with a wild approach to the 18th in round three - a marshal beside the green performing heroically for him to find his ball deep in the junk - and his serenity of the first three days could easily disappear.

Palmer seems surprised to be at the leaderboard summit, admitting to a lack of practice in the build-up, and to end 11 years outside the winner's enclosure would be a great achievement in a field of this quality.

Morikawa, who won at Muirfield Village last summer as well as claiming that Major triumph in August, can assert himself from the penultimate pairing. Ante-post recommendation Patrick Cantlay still has a slim chance of winning from five behind, but giving Morikawa a four-shot start will probably prove too much.

A sunny day, with light to moderate breezes, is forecast. The final twoball of Palmer and English is scheduled on the tee at 8.50pm UK and Ireland time. Cameron Champ can overwhelm Brian Gay in their 6.20pm meeting. These two are like chalk and cheese as players - and the vast driving distance advantage of Champ can prove decisive on the rolling terrain of Kapalua.

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