Steve Palmer's Saudi International predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Saudi International at Royal Greens GC on the Asian Tour.

Where to watch

Live on FreeSports (Sky HD Channel 422) & Premier Sports (Sky HD Channel 424) from 8am on Thursday

Best bets

Thomas Pieters
3pts each-way 18-1 general

Tyrrell Hatton
3pts each-way 12-1 general

Lucas Herbert
1pt each-way 50-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

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Dustin Johnson has been the golfing king of King Abdullah Economic City over the previous three years, winning two of the three Saudi Internationals, but the former world number one seems a skinny price for the latest event, which is now sanctioned by the Asian Tour having previously been a European Tour affair.

Course form figures of 1-2-1 will understandably be enough for many punters to opt for Johnson. He is the course-record holder and loves reducing many holes at Royal Greens to a drive and a wedge, but this is the first time Johnson has teed up in Saudi Arabia straight after competing in the Farmers Insurance Open. A direct flight from San Diego to Jeddah lasts 17 hours and DJ could be more lethargic than he usually is in the early stages of the Saudi International.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thomas Pieters 18-1

If Johnson is going to be toppled this week, another giant powerhouse could be the man for the job - Thomas Pieters also relishes the dimensions of Royal Greens GC and can follow up his Abu Dhabi Championship triumph with more desert glory.

The Abu Dhabi success came in demanding conditions and it was a draining victory. It was a tough ask for Pieters to deliver back-to-back Rolex Series glory in Dubai last week, particularly given he had never performed well at the Emirates Club previously, so 12th place was a decent effort.

Mental fatigue was probably the reason for Pieters carding a third-round 76 in the Desert Classic - he had three good rounds and one bad one - and better can be expected in Saudi Arabia at a track he prefers.

Saudi International form figures of 22-3-10 all came when Pieters was out of form and ranked outside the world's top 75. This time, up to world number 31 and bursting with self-belief, the 30-year-old can contend even more strongly for the title.

Pieters explained after Abu Dhabi how much he enjoys having to control his ball-flight in the wind - and the forecast for breezy afternoons this week means he will probably get another chance to show off his shotmaking skills.

Next best bet

Tyrrell Hatton 12-1

Pieters and Tyrrell Hatton had a short journey from Dubai to Saudi Arabia, so should be fresh for the fight, and this dynamic duo could be the main protagonists at Royal Greens. Hatton has started the year well, with sixth place in Abu Dhabi followed by fourth in Dubai, and he made a promising Saudi International debut last year.

Hatton finished sixth on his first visit to Royal Greens. This time, knowing what to expect and clearly in control of most aspects of his game, the fiery Englishman is difficult to ignore.

Other selection

Lucas Herbert 50-1

The main threat to Pieters and Hatton may come from Lucas Herbert, who is a masterful performer in the wind. With strong breezes on the radar for every afternoon, Herbert can handle the test better than most. The Aussie made his PGA Tour breakthrough in an extremely windy Bermuda Championship at the end of October.

Herbert's maiden European Tour title came in the Middle East - the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic - and he warmed up nicely for Saudi Arabia by finishing 18th in Dubai last week.

Players to note

Sam Horsfield
The Florida-based slugger has form figures of 9-12-4 from his last three events - all high-class affairs in the Gulf - and should go well again.

Jason Kokrak
The American raider, becoming a prolific PGA Tour champion and comfortable in a breeze, looks a juicy price.

Cameron Smith
The Sentry Tournament of Champions victor should enjoy himself if the wind speeds pick up as expected.

Marc Leishman
Another Aussie comfortable in a breeze. Both Smith and Leishman are making their course debut, but should enjoy the conditions.

Royal Greens course guide

Course Royal Greens Golf and Country Club, King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
Prize money $5m ($833,333 to the winner)
Length 7,010 yards
Par 70 - two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 120 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Dustin Johnson (5), Xander Schauffele (8), Bryson DeChambeau (9), Cameron Smith (11), Tony Finau (17)

Course records- 72 holes 261 Dustin Johnson (2019) 18 holes 61 Dustin Johnson (2019)

Course winners taking part Dustin Johnson (twice), Graeme McDowell

When to bet By 4.20am Thursday

When to watch Live on FreeSports (Sky HD Channel 422) & Premier Sports (Sky HD Channel 424)

Time difference Saudi Arabia is three hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Course type Desert

Course overview The European Tour moved to new domain in 2019, staging an event in Saudi Arabia for the first time, and the host course opened only nine months prior to the tournament. David Sampson designed the track, which is short by modern standards and straightforward for Tour professionals unless the wind blows strongly from the neighbouring Red Sea. Undulating fairways are lined by light rough, desert or lakes, leading to fairly flat paspalum greens which typically run at 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

Story of last year Despite carrying an ice-cold putter, Dustin Johnson won a second Saudi title by a two-shot margin.

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with windy afternoons.

Type of player suited to the challenge The course is relatively easy – 19, 12 and 15 under par have been the winning totals – and the layout sets up well for big-hitters, but strong afternoon winds look set to provide more difficulty this time.

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight Dustin Johnson has won two of the three previous Saudi Internationals.