Steve Palmer's Portugal Masters predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Portugal Masters at the Dom Pedro Victoria on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from midday on Thursday

Best bets

Min Woo Lee
3pts each-way 25-1 general

Adri Arnaus
2pts each-way 45-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Romain Langasque
1pt each-way 70-1 Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes, Power

Victor Dubuisson
1pt each-way 75-1 bet365

Pablo Larrazabal
1pt each-way 70-1 Betfred

In-form English duo Matt Wallace and Laurie Canter head the betting for the Portugal Masters, but winning tournaments has been an issue for both players and they can be opposed at short prices.

Wallace is winless since the 2018 Made In Denmark, while Canter is still awaiting his European Tour breakthrough. The Bath man does not even have a Challenge Tour title to his name.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Min Woo Lee 25-1

Lucas Herbert won the Bermuda Championship on Sunday and his fellow Australian Min Woo Lee could be parading silverware a week later.

The Aussies are a close-knit bunch who seem to win in streaks - and the relationship between 25-year-old Herbert and 23-year-old Lee is particularly interesting. When Herbert won his maiden European Tour title in Dubai, Lee followed suit a fortnight later. Then when Herbert claimed a second European Tour victory in Ireland, Lee won his second in Scotland a week later.

Regardless of any added inspiration from seeing his pal succeed in Bermuda, Lee can be fancied to perform in Portugal. This technically magnificent player has shown he can score well in any conditions - winning on a wide-open Scottish links, then finishing second last time out at Valderrama, the tightest track on the circuit.

It has not been easy for Australian golfers to get around the globe in these Covid times - quarantine laws in the country are notoriously tough - but Lee sensibly jetted to Florida after Valderrama to practice for Portugal.

Lee is highly motivated for the end of this European Tour season, residing 58th in the world rankings and knowing that a place in the top 50 by the end of the year will give him access to all the major events of 2022. He finished 63rd in his only previous Dom Pedro visit, but was outside the world's top 350 at the time.

Next best bet

Adri Arnaus 45-1

Spanish slugger Adri Arnaus was so close to success in his national Open last month - and would probably have become champion had Rafa Cabrera Bello not been handed a free drop from heavy rough at the 72nd hole. A playoff loss resulted - a fourth European Tour second place for Arnaus - but this week provides another excellent breakthrough opportunity.

There was an understandable mental hangover from the Spanish Open for Arnaus, but almost a month later he may be ready to rumble again. He has got the power and putting stroke to make mincemeat of the Dom Pedro.

Arnaus, like Lee, has had one previous spin at the track - finishing 40th in 2019. He was fourth in the Open de Portugal in his Challenge Tour days.

Other selections

Romain Langasque 70-1

Victor Dubuisson 75-1

Pablo Larrazabal 70-1

A pair of Andorra-based Frenchmen are worth following at healthy prices for their short trip to Vilamoura. Romain Langasque has got his act together in the last few weeks, finishing 11th at Valderrama, then 34th in Mallorca. This former amateur star, a Challenge Tour winner in 2018, made his European Tour breakthrough in the Wales Open last year.

Langasque missed six cuts in a row prior to his only previous Dom Pedro start - and he missed three cuts in a row after the event - but he finished 39th at the Dom Pedro. The layout suits his attacking style and he can feature on the leaderboard.

Victor Dubuisson may also threaten. This enigmatic character has put in a couple of solid shifts in the last month - four rounds in the 60s for 12th place in the Spanish Open, then four rounds of par or better for 20th spot in the Mallorca Open. The former Ryder Cup star and two-time European Tour champion is clearly good enough to triumph in this grade.

Complete the staking plan with Pablo Larrazabal, who suffered illness on the eve of the Mallorca Open last time out. An upset stomach made life challenging for Larrazabal, as well as being on the wrong side of a significant draw bias over the first two days. He lost his ball in heavy rough on the par-five second hole, despite being only 25 yards from the pin in two shots, and ended up carding a double-bogey.

The writing was on the wall early for Larrazabal in Mallorca, but he was in good nick prior to that event, with 20th place in the Spanish Open and the same position in the Andalucia Masters. He has three top-15s to his name at the Dom Pedro.

Players to note

Thomas Pieters
The Belgian finished 16th in Mallorca last time out from the wrong side of the draw. A half-decent week with the putter should see him feature on the Dom Pedro leaderboard.

George Coetzee
The defending champion loves this course and must be respected. He usually arrives for the event in good form, though, and has not been in fantastic nick lately.

Sam Horsfield
The attacking powerhouse will relish the dimensions of the Dom Pedro and expect to contend. Poor putting has the potential to derail his challenge.

Sebastian Soderberg
The powerful Swede has posted back-to-back second places on the European Tour. The Dom Pedro seems at his mercy in this form, but he has lacked composure close to the winning post.

Alvaro Quiros
The Spaniard has regained some form and confidence - and he is a former Dom Pedro champion who used to live by the course. Dangerman.

Dom Pedro Victoria course guide

Course Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Prize money €1.5m (€250,050 to the winner)
Length 7,191 yards
Par 71
Field 108
Course records - 72 holes 261 Andy Sullivan (2015), Padraig Harrington (2016) 18 holes 59 Oliver Fisher (2018)

Course winners taking part Alvaro Quiros, Alexander Levy, Andy Sullivan, Padraig Harrington, Lucas Bjerregaard, Steven Brown, George Coetzee

When to bet By 7.10am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12pm on Thursday

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Victoria has been the venue since 2007, having a couple of name changes along the way, and the 2005 World Cup was also staged at the course. It is a flat, exposed track which is similar in style to venues found on the Gulf Swing. The 481-yard third, the 510-yard seventh and the 463-yard 18th are the three most difficult par-fours. Numerous water hazards and huge, undulating greens provide a challenge, but the fairways are wide, and seven times the winning score has been at least 20 under par. Oliver Fisher carded the European Tour's first and only round of 59 on the second day of the 2018 Portugal Masters. The three par-fives (the fifth, 12th and 17th), along with the 315-yard, water-free, driveable par-four 15th, are the most obvious birdie opportunities

Story of last year George Coetzee fended off Laurie Canter - the South African beating the Englishman by two shots

Weather forecast Clear and sunny throughout, with temperatures reaching a high of 19C. Gentle breezes, peaking at 13 mph on Thursday afternoon

Type of player suited to the challenge Length has always been of great advantage at Victoria, with plenty of enforced carries from the tee and many holes setting up well for big-hitters. The par-fives require lusty striking to be reached in two shots and the drives over water at the 510-yard par-four seventh and the difficult 18th become much easier if you can give your ball a healthy ride. The driveable 15th is an easy birdie for the bombers

Key attribute Power

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