Steve Palmer's Portugal Masters predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Portugal Masters at Dom Pedro GC on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Andy Sullivan
3pts each-way 28-1 bet365

Thorbjorn Olesen
2pts each-way 30-1 bet365

Joakim Lagergren
1.5pts each-way 40-1 bet365

Gavin Green
1pt each-way 45-1 bet365

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Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Smith, Victor Perez and Nicolai Hojgaard head the betting for the Portugal Masters, but all can be avoided at the odds.

MacIntyre has just one 72-hole strokeplay victory to his name and he finished 64th in his only previous Portugal Masters, Smith is winless since July 2017 and always struggles to stay on leaderboards, Perez rarely putts well enough to be trusted in low-scoring events, while some of Hojgaard's putting in Mallorca on Sunday was X-rated stuff.

Palmer's top tip

Andy Sullivan 28-1

The most attractive punting proposition by far for the Portugal Masters is a man who won the event by nine shots in 2015. Andy Sullivan loves this venue and seems as likely a title contender as anyone in the field.

Sullivan was nearly successful in his 2016 Dom Pedro title defence - Padraig Harrington pipped him by a shot - then the chirpy Midlander finished eighth in the 2019 edition. Sullivan, an attacking player who has traditionally been an excellent putter, is well suited to low-scoring assignments. His fourth DP World Tour title came in 2020 with a 27-under-par total at Hanbury Manor.

The last three months suggest Sullivan is ready to rip the Dom Pedro apart once again. Eighth place in the Cazoo Classic was a sign that the former Ryder Cup man was getting his act together, then he followed up with third spot in the Cazoo Open, before setting the early pace in the BMW PGA Championship.

Having skipped the Spanish Open to work on his game at Wentworth, Sullivan returned to action with 11th place in the Andalucia Masters, then finished 16th in the Mallorca Open last week, despite suffering a frustrating time on the greens.

Next best bet

Thorbjorn Olesen 30-1

Another player who, like Sullivan, has appeared to be finding top form in the last few weeks is Thorbjorn Olesen - another former European Ryder Cupper.

Olesen enjoyed a massive moment in May when he got his career back on track by winning the British Masters, lifting all the doom and gloom of the previous couple of years. Thunderbear finished that tournament like a champion to become a six-time DP World Tour winner.

There was an understandable lull afterwards - it was such an emotional victory given his off-course issues - and he lost control of his driver for a few weeks. Recently, though, Olesen has looked solid again, with 20th place at Le Golf National and 21st at Valderrama confirming that he has straightened things out.

Attacking players who typically putt well thrive at the Dom Pedro and former World Cup winner Olesen emphatically fits the bill.

Other selections

Joakim Lagergren 40-1

Gavin Green 45-1

Mercurial Swede Joakim Lagergren has suddenly rediscovered his A-game, making him a man to be reckoned with as he tackles a favourable assignment this week.

Lagergren is the sort of wild, aggressive player who typically comes unstuck at Valderrama, but the fact he hung around on the Andalucia Masters leaderboard all week and finished runner-up is seriously eyecatching form.

Lagergren's Valderrama heroics followed 23rd spot in the Spanish Open, so the sunshine of the Iberian Peninsula is seemingly proving inspirational. Given how much better suited he is to the Dom Pedro than Valderrama, the 2018 Sicilian Open champion is difficult to resist this week.

Lagergren has built a career on magical putting and has finished 14th and third in his last two Portugal Masters starts.

Complete a four-pronged attack of ultra-aggressive birdie machines with Gavin Green, who seems the DP World Tour maiden most likely to make an impact at the Dom Pedro.

The Malaysian's career took a little dip for a while - he suffered some injury issues and admitted touring life was making him miss home - but the last three months have been extremely encouraging.

Like Sullivan, Green has been swinging well from the end of the summer onwards. In his last eight events, he has made every cut, finishing runner-up in the Czech Masters, then 11th in the Mallorca Open on Sunday.

Green was 17th at the Dom Pedro last year and is playing well enough to threaten the trophy this time. He won on the Asian Tour in 2017 and has always been bristling with potential.

Players to note

Niklas Norgaard Moller
The Danish powerhouse will appreciate the room off the tee at the Dom Pedro and could muscle his way into the thick of things.

Marc Warren
The Scot has found some late-season form and possesses the putting ability to reach the super-low total which will be required for victory on Sunday.

Dom Pedro course guide

Course Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Prize money €2m (€340,000 to the winner)
Length 7,191 yards
Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 120 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players taking part (world ranking in brackets) Robert MacIntyre (67), Victor Perez (93), Jordan Smith (105), Nicolai Hojgaard (124), Yannik Paul (139)

Course records- 72 holes 261 Andy Sullivan (2015), Padraig Harrington (2016) 18 holes 59 Oliver Fisher (2018)

Course winners taking part Alvaro Quiros, Tom Lewis (twice), Andy Sullivan, Lucas Bjerregaard, Steven Brown

When to bet By 8am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Last week - Mallorca Open 1 Y Paul (25-1), T2 P Waring (60-1), N von Dellingshausen (175-1), T4 R Fox (16-1), D Whitnell (100-1), T6 M Armitage (50-1), J Janewattananond (90-1), J Winther (75-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Victoria has been the venue since 2007, having a couple of name changes along the way. The 2005 World Cup was also staged at the course. It is a flat, exposed track which is similar in style to venues found on the Gulf Swing. The 481-yard third, the 510-yard seventh and the 463-yard 18th are the three most difficult par-fours. Numerous water hazards and huge, undulating greens provide a challenge, but the fairways are wide, and seven times the winning score has been at least 20 under par. Oliver Fisher carded the European Tour's first and only round of 59 on the second day of the 2018 Portugal Masters. The three par-fives (the fifth, 12th and 17th), along with the 315-yard, water-free, driveable par-four 15th, are the most obvious birdie opportunities

Story of last year An imperious Thomas Pieters repelled Danish duo Lucas Bjerregaard and Nicolai Hojgaard, as well as faltering Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, to win by two shots

Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and cloud, temperatures around 21C, and light to moderate breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Length has always been of great advantage at Victoria, with plenty of enforced carries from the tee and many holes setting up well for big-hitters. The par-fives require lusty striking to be reached in two shots and the drives over water at the 510-yard par-four seventh and the difficult 18th become much easier if you can give your ball a healthy ride. The driveable 15th is an easy birdie for the bombers

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight Seven of the 15 Portugal Masters champions have been English.

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