Steve Palmer's Portugal Masters final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Gavin Green
3pts 9-4 Betfair, Power

Gavin Green to win 11.25am threeball
2pts 17-10 bet365

Tapio Pulkkanen to win 11.03am threeball
2pts 7-5 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Jordan Smith is two shots clear in the Portugal Masters and seeking to end a DP World Tour victory drought which stretches back to July, 2017.

Smith, whose only Tour success came in the European Open in Germany, fired a Saturday 62 to edge clear at the Dom Pedro Victoria in Vilamoura.

The Bath man, who turns 30 next month, was 16-1 ante-post - second in the betting behind only Robert MacIntyre. Smith has become a best-price 4-9 to convert his advantage into the Portugal Masters title.

Gavin Green is probably a tad miffed to be 20 under par through three rounds and not in front. The Malaysian, seeking a DP World Tour breakthrough, has carded rounds of 64, 65 and 64. Green was eight under par for his final 15 holes of round three.

Leaderboard
-22 Jordan Smith
-20 Gavin Green
-17 Sebastian Heisele
-15 Tapio Pulkkanen, Hurly Long, Eddie Pepperell, Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Best prices
4-9 J Smith, 9-4 G Green, 35 S Heisele, 80 E Pepperell, 100 T Pulkkanen, H Long, K Aphibarnrat, 500 bar

Final-round preview

Jordan Smith leads the Portugal Masters because his approach to the 15th in round three was gobbled up by the hole. The pitch from the rough was set to bound past the flagstick and would have struggled to stay on the green, but a likely par turned into an eagle when the hole hoovered up the leader's ball.

That large slice of luck aside, Smith played superbly, but he is notoriously brittle in contention and a long way from getting home in front. The odds of 4-9 against his name make no appeal whatsoever and punters yet to get involved should be looking to oppose the leader.

Smith has been a professional since 2014 and the 2017 European Open is his only DP World Tour trophy - a tournament won in a playoff after Alexander Levy missed a tiddler for victory at the first extra hole. Smith has squandered several chances to claim a second Tour title, building a reputation as one of the weakest closers on the circuit.

Throw in some lingering effects from the flu, which Smith apparently picked up during a stag do last weekend, and there seems every chance of the pacesetter finishing with a whimper. A bogey at the 18th in round three may have set the tone for Sunday.

Gavin Green is threatening to realise the great potential he showed as a youngster. The 28-year-old has won on the Asian Tour, but never on the DP World Tour, and this looks a wonderful opportunity to get off the mark.

Green has made eight cuts in a row, finishing runner-up in the Czech Masters in that run, swinging with confidence and power. His putting stroke has looked rock-solid this week and the Malaysian has been relishing the dimensions of the Dom Pedro, where he can drive over most of the trouble off the tee.

Sebastian Heisele, who is retiring after this tournament, was in tears in his post-round interview, admitting that Tour life has been hard as a "journeyman". Green has a three-shot buffer over Heisele and five shots over the rest, so this looks a duel between Green and Smith.

Green was a Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation at 45-1, so punters with a healthy wager at juicy prices may be looking at the 4-9 Smith as a cover option. The advice, though, is to press-up on Green instead. The 9-4 Green seems enormous given the doubts over Smith's fortitude and the free-flowing brilliance which has been on display from the Malaysian.

Green also looks great value for the final threeball (11.25am) against Smith and Heisele, while Tapio Pulkkanen, well suited to this assignment, can boss Jason Scrivener and David Drysdale in the 11.03am contest.

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