Steve Palmer's Players Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the PGA Tour as Steve Palmer bids to follow up a 16-1 winner after Scottie Scheffler's Arnold Palmer Invitational triumph.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Golf from 11.45am on Thursday

Best bets

Shane Lowry
2.5pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Hideki Matsuyama (NON-RUNNER)
2.5pts each-way 30-1 Hills

Cameron Smith
2pts each-way 33-1 bet365, Betfred

Joaquin Niemann
1.5pts each-way 45-1 Hills

Corey Conners
1pt each-way 60-1 bet365

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The Players Championship - traditionally one of the most enthralling sporting events on the calendar - is crammed with noisy fans this week. The 2020 event had to be abandoned after one round, while only a fifth of the usual amount of spectators were permitted entry last year, but Covid will not ruin this week's showpiece. The 'Fifth Major' is at full throttle.

Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa headline the betting. Rahm missed a ten-inch putt at Bay Hill last week and is desperately lacking flat-stick confidence. Nobody has ever successfully defended at Sawgrass - and Thomas may not be putting well enough to buck the trend - so Morikawa is the most appealing of the trio.

Morikawa closed with a 66 in last year's Players, having carded a 68 in the abandoned 2020 edition, and the forecast for tough conditions plays to his strengths. The weather worries, though, mean punters should be careful about investing too much at short prices. It may be best to steer clear of the market leaders given a stormy Thursday and Friday is set to be followed by a windy Saturday and a cold Sunday. Smaller stakes at bigger odds is the recommended course of action.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Shane Lowry 45-1

Last time out in the Honda Classic, Shane Lowry produced some of the best golf of his career, closing with three consecutive rounds of 67 at PGA National to finish runner-up to Sepp Straka.

That effort came on a difficult Florida course with lots of water and lots of breeze - and Lowry tackles a similar assignment at Sawgrass. He was hugely unfortunate to finish a shot shy of Straka, who was able to boom his drive at the par-five 18th and make an easy birdie, before heavy rain made the hole much tougher for Lowry.

The Irishman said the heavens suddenly opening at the Honda was the worst break he had ever got on a golf course, but he took the defeat well, knowing that he had found his A-game at the perfect time to be a Players Championship threat.

While the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy invested lots of mental energy at Bay Hill last week, admitting exhaustion in post-round interviews, Lowry sensibly skipped the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That has freshened him up for Sawgrass, where he enjoyed a strong weekend 12 months ago to finish eighth.

Last year's performance came when Lowry was in poor form - he had just missed the cut at Bay Hill and was feeling glum - but this time he has arrived in fine fettle. The Honda near-miss came after a solid stretch of golf in the Middle East and the 2019 Open champion seems primed for Sawgrass.

Lowry is one of the most adaptable players in the world when it comes to changing weather, so the forecast for rain, wind and cold this week will not have him fretting. The Florida-based Clara man will be relishing this challenge.

Next best bet

Hideki Matsuyama 30-1 (NON-RUNNER)

The final-round 70 which Hideki Matsuyama carded at Bay Hill on Sunday was bettered by only two players in the field that day. It hauled the Japanese ace up to 20th place - another solid effort from an increasingly reliable 30-year-old.

The Masters champion won the Zozo Championship by five shots in October, then the Sony Open in a playoff in January. He was seventh at Sawgrass in 2016 and eighth in 2019 when he outscored everybody over the weekend. The Florida-based star opened with a 63 and led the 2020 event by two shots before it was abandoned.

Last year, rounds of 76 and 69 meant Matsuyama fell one shot shy of the cut-line, but he is 19 under par for his last five rounds at Sawgrass and has never carried more self-belief.

Other selections

Cameron Smith 33-1

Joaquin Niemann 45-1

Corey Conners 60-1

Cameron Smith lives in Ponte Vedra Beach and practises regularly at Sawgrass. That comfort at the venue showed last year when he fired a Saturday 65 on his way to 17th place. Smith, perhaps sensing his opportunity to land the $3.6million Sawgrass first prize, skipped the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer. Full focus has been on the Players and preparation at the track has doubtless been extremely thorough.

Smith won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii at the start of this year, then finished fourth on his Saudi International debut last month. The Aussie has impressed with the driver this year and is ultra-comfortable competing in the wind.

The forecast for a breezy Saturday will not worry Joaquin Niemann either. The Chilean's low ball-flight could be helpful at a course where he finished 29th last year. Niemann has played only five rounds at Sawgrass (73, 73, 71, 70, 70) and that improvement should continue given how well he has been playing this year.

Niemann was sixth at Torrey Pines, eighth in the Saudi International, then won the Genesis Invitational with a 19-under-par masterclass, defeating a top-class field. He had an understandable hangover after his win, missing the cut by a shot in the Honda next time out, but he should be fresh and firing for Sawgrass.

Complete a team of Florida residents with Corey Conners, who was lying seventh when the 2020 Players was abandoned, then finished seventh on his Sawgrass return last year. Conners topped the greens-in-regulation statistics at Bay Hill last week, gaining more than 11 shots on the field from tee to green. He putted poorly and finished 11th, but long-game class gives the 30-year-old a great chance of making an impact this week.

Conners has finished tenth and eighth in the last two Masters - and was 15th in the last Open - so the biggest arenas no longer appear to hold any fears for the amiable Canadian.

Players to note

Alexander Noren
Florida-based Swede struck his ball beautifully on his way to fifth place in the Honda Classic last time out, putting poorly. He can threaten the places again this week.

Tyrrell Hatton
Moody Englishman played well at Bay Hill on Sunday to tie for second place. His Sawgrass record is nowhere near as good as his Bay Hill one, but he arrives in good form.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sawgrass is an assignment that the in-form Sheffield man enjoys - and he was ninth last year - but the forecast for rain early in the tournament does not help his chances.

Patrick Cantlay
Sawgrass is not a venue which has yielded much success for the cocksure Californian, but he has never teed up there before as a FedEx Cup champion. In-form dangerman.

Billy Horschel
A share of second place was the least that the in-form Floridian deserved from the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday. He knows Sawgrass like the back of his hand and must be respected again.

Dustin Johnson
A class act who has been lightly raced in recent months - Johnson prefers the March Sawgrass conditions to the old May ones. On price alone, the former world number one is worth considering.

Sawgrass course guide

Course Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
Length 7,256 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in the field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Collin Morikawa (2), Viktor Hovland (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Scottie Scheffler (5)

Course records- 72 holes 264 Greg Norman (2004) 18 holes 63 Fred Couples (1992), Greg Norman (1994), Martin Kaymer (2014), Jason Day (2016), Colt Knost (2016), Webb Simpson (2018), Brooks Koepka (2018)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas

When to bet By 11.45am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Golf from 11.45am on Thursday

Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Arnold Palmer Invitational 1 S Scheffler (18-1), T2 T Hatton (35-1), V Hovland (16-1), B Horschel (50-1), T5 G Woodland (70-1), C Kirk (80-1), T7 L Herbert (250-1), T Gooch (60-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Pete Dye design has hosted this tournament since 1982. The Championship has become known as the 'Fifth Major' due to the quality of the field – all the elite usually tee up. Dangerous holes, one of the most talked about in golf being the island-green 17th, can see competitors card some big numbers. The par-fives – the second, ninth, 11th and 16th – offer relief. The track has a state-of-the-art drainage system, so officials can get the track firm and fast, but the switch in 2019 from a May date in the calendar to a March one had a dramatic effect on course conditions. It is lusher in March, so the ball does not roll to the same extent, and it does not fly as far in the colder air. In 2017, the 12th hole was redesigned to become a driveable par four of 302 yards. The 2020 event was cancelled after one round due to Covid

Story of last year Justin Thomas tugged his drive at the 72nd hole, but his ball just managed to avoid the lake left of the fairway and a closing par meant a one-shot victory over Lee Westwood

Weather forecast Four hours of rain is forecast on a thundery Thursday, then Friday seems set to be a similar story. A windy Saturday is set to be followed by a cold Sunday (a high of 13C).

Type of player suited to the challenge Plodders traditionally succeeded at this venue when the event was staged in May, but the switch to March and the lusher terrain effectively lengthened the track and played into the hands of big-hitters. Rain and cold air seems set to help them further this week

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight The last ten Sawgrass champions finished in the top 25 in their preceding tournament

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