Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open predictions & golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf & Main Event from 2.15pm on Thursday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland
3.5pts each-way 18-1 Hills

Scottie Scheffler
3pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, Hills, Power

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The fans are back in force for the Phoenix Open this week - TPC Scottsdale having been a much quieter place during the pandemic a year ago - and world number one Jon Rahm will be the headline act of a pre-Super Bowl party.

Rahm must come under serious consideration by Phoenix Open punters at a best-price 15-2. He went to college in Arizona and lives in Scottsdale, so this is a home game for the Spaniard, and form figures of 5-16-11-10-9-13 show that he has been a leaderboard regular in this event.

Rahm, with 2022 results of 2-14-3, can be expected to contend this week, but a bad temper has been a feature of his performances this year and boisterous Phoenix galleries may not help this volcanic character stay calm.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Viktor Hovland 18-1

If it again proves a case of 'close but no cigar' for Rahm in Phoenix, then the man lurking only two spots behind him in the world rankings may take the trophy instead - Viktor Hovland is in rude health and could be about to enjoy further glory.

Hovland has won three of his last five tournaments. The second of that trio came in a top-class field at the Hero World Challenge, while the last was a DP World Tour Rolex Series event, the Dubai Desert Classic.

The Norwegian is up to third in the world rankings - only Rahm is superior in the Scottsdale field - yet four names are being shown more respect in the Phoenix market. With that in mind, the 18-1 about Hovland seems full of juice.

A lack of course form is the reason Hovland has been unpopular this week - he missed the cut in his only previous Phoenix start - but that failure needs to be put into context. It came at the start of 2020 when he had been a professional for less than eight months. He had never won a main-tour event, was playing off a sponsors invite, was ranked 94th in the world, and had trekked back from Dubai earlier in the week.

The Dubai Desert Classic was immediately before the Phoenix Open in 2020, so Hovland arrived jaded from his Middle East adventure, but this time he has enjoyed a week off between the two events. He has won four PGA Tour events since then, two DP World Tour titles, and is a completely different beast to the one which missed the cut by a single shot two years ago.

Scottsdale is a layout which suits attacking players who find lots of greens in regulation and Hovland emphatically fits into that category.

His only flop this year came in the Sentry Tournament of Champions curtain-raiser - and he had good excuses for that given his clubs got lost in transit and did not arrive in Hawaii until just before he teed off. The Norwegian borrowed his caddie's clubs for practice and his preparation was terrible.

If punters disregard the Sentry, Hovland's form figures are 1-1-4-1, and there seems no obvious reason why this young buck should not be prominent on another leaderboard this week.

Next best bet

Scottie Scheffler 25-1

The cream has risen to the top of the Scottsdale leaderboard in recent years - five of the last six winners have been ranked inside the world's top 20 - and this event becomes a 15-runner affair if the field is narrowed down to those parameters.

World number 15 Scottie Scheffler - the best PGA Tour maiden on the planet - should go close to getting off the mark on Sunday. The Texan made a superb Ryder Cup debut last year, thrashing Rahm in the singles, and any concerns about his temperament were quashed at Whistling Straits.

Scheffler, a two-time champion on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, has been strongly threatening a PGA Tour breakthrough. Since the Ryder Cup, he has finished fourth at Mayakoba, second in the Houston Open and second again in the Hero World Challenge.

Two starts this year have yielded 25th spot in The American Express and 20th in the Farmers Insurance Open - two events in which he missed the cut last year. Scheffler could be peaking for Phoenix and the course seems ideal for him.

Scheffler carded identical round scores to Hovland when missing the cut by a shot on his Phoenix debut in 2020, but last year's return, despite the poor form prior, went much better. Scheffler finished seventh, only three shots behind a triumphant Brooks Koepka, to prove that TPC Scottsdale was useful terrain for him.

Players to note

Hideki Matsuyama
The two-time Phoenix champion has a magnificent course record and a gutsy Sony Open victory last month has boosted confidence. A serious threat to all.

Justin Thomas
The former world number one enjoys the set-up at TPC Scottsdale and should set up countless birdie opportunities again. The question is: can he putt well enough to triumph?

Brooks Koepka
Another dual champion at Scottsdale will be looking forward to tackling one of his favourite venues. Fitness problems seem to be behind him.

Luke List
The Farmers Insurance Open victor is powerful and finds lots of greens in regulation, so there seems every chance of another positive performance given his recent encouragement with putter.

TPC Scottsdale course guide

Course TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
Prize money $8.2m ($1.314m to the winner)
Length 7,261 yards
Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players taking part (world rankings in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Viktor Hovland (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Justin Thomas (7), Xander Schauffele (8)

Course records- 72 holes 256 Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013) 18 holes 60 Grant Waite (1996), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2005 and 2013)

Course winners taking part Kyle Stanley, Brooks Koepka (twice), Hideki Matsuyama (twice), Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson

When to bet By 2.15pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf & Main Event from 2.15pm Thursday

Time difference Arizona is seven hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Pebble Beach Pro-Am 1 T Hoge (66-1), 2 J Spieth (20-1), 3 B Hossler (300-1), T4 T Merritt (125-1), P Cantlay (15-2), T6 M Fitzpatrick (40-1), J Dahmen (90-1), A Putnam (90-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview There are only three par-fives at TPC Scottsdale (the third, 13th and 15th), but the venue has traditionally played into the hands of long-driving, attacking players because of generous fairways and a lack of serious troublespots. The track, used since 1987, had an upgrade after the 2014 renewal which added slightly to the challenge. All 18 holes were revised by Tom Weiskopf, who planted 250 new trees. The galleries are usually a test for the competitors, with more than 200,000 noisy fans normally crammed into the course for the Friday and Saturday of the event

Story of last year A flying finish from Brooks Koepka allowed him to pip Xander Schauffele and Kyoung-hoon Lee by a shot

Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with temperatures around 25C and hardly any breeze

Type of player suited to the challenge Scottsdale remains a fairly straightforward test which suits aggressive golf, as underlined by the likes of Phil Mickelson, JB Holmes and Brooks Koepka dominating the honours board

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight Five of the last six Phoenix Open champions were inside the top 20 of the world rankings at the time of their victory

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