Steve Palmer's Nedbank Challenge predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Nedbank Challenge at Gary Player Country Club on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9am on Thursday

Best bets

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3pts each-way 20-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Oliver Bekker
1pt each-way 60-1 general

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Tommy Fleetwood has been all the rage for the Nedbank Challenge, looking set to go off 9-1 favourite as he bids to end a victory drought of three years.

When Fleetwood won the 2019 Nedbank, he wouldn't have expected to spend 36 months outside the winner's enclosure, but rarely since has he had every department of his game purring in unison. His driving became particularly erratic.

Recent signs have been encouraging - and he outscored everyone over the final three rounds of the CJ Cup last time out on his way to finishing fourth. Given Fleetwood's solid Nedbank record, it is not surprising the popular Southport man is being supported, but, like with Scottie Scheffler in the Houston Open, bookmakers are giving nothing away at the odds, so preference is for looking deeper in the market.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20-1

It is surprising that local hero Christiaan Bezuidenhout can be backed at double the odds of Fleetwood, given how impressive the South African has been at Gary Player Country Club in his last two visits.

Bezuidenhout is 26 under par for his last eight competitive rounds at this track. Just before Christmas in 2020, he won the South African Open at the GPCC by a five-shot margin, producing a 67-67-67-69 masterclass in the European Tour event.

All three of Bezuidenhout's DP World Tour victories have come by convincing margins - six, four and five - and two of them have come in South Africa. The home hope is obviously hugely comfortable on the native kikuyu grass and he gave a stout defence of his SA Open title at the end of last year, closing with a 67 for sixth place.

Bezuidenhout has established himself as a PGA Tour contender, finishing second in the John Deere Classic in July, and he has become a solid, consistent, global operator at the age of 28. An extra layer of self-belief came from a Presidents Cup debut in September.

Bezuidenhout was used only once prior to the singles - gaining half a point - so looked vulnerable against former WGC-Match Play champion Kevin Kisner in the singles. The youngster stood firm against the matchplay master, though, and won the match. He had shown his mettle on the world stage.

Bezuidenhout followed up with 20th place in the Shriners Children's Open, then 29th in the Zozo Championship, before seemingly running out of puff in the CJ Cup at the end of a hectic schedule. After a fortnight off, he should be fresh for the Nedbank fight, and can build on his fantastic GPCC record.

Next best bet

Oliver Bekker 60-1

There are only four course winners in this field - and the advice is to back two of them. Oliver Bekker won the 2016 Sun City Challenge at GPCC on the Sunshine Tour - one of many excellent efforts at this venue.

Bekker finished runner-up in last year's South African Open at GPCC, following 20th place in the same event 12 months earlier, and he was eighth in the 2020 Royal Swazi Open there. Even way back in 2008, Bekker's best finish of that campaign came at GPCC with 13th spot in the Dimension-Data Pro-Am.

If Bekker can rediscover the form he showed on the DP World Tour at the start of the year, he should be a force to be reckoned with at a track we know he can conquer. The 37-year-old was contending almost every time he played at the start of the season, losing a Catalunya Championship playoff to Adri Arnaus in May, but he joined LIV Golf and lost his way.

Bekker played in the first LIV event (London), before getting dropped, and he started missing DPWT cuts. Recent signs have been encouraging, though, with ninth place in the Italian Open in September followed by third place in a Sunshine Tour event last time out. The Nedbank represents a wonderful opportunity for Bekker, a seven-time Sunshine Tour champion, to make a DP World Tour breakthrough.

Players to note

Robert MacIntyre
The Scot, who finished eighth on his Nedbank debut in 2019, returns to GPCC for the first time since with September's Italian Open victory still fresh in his memory. Obvious threat.

Antoine Rozner
The Frenchman has been consistently finding greens in regulation and contending, while suffering with his putter. This stiff long-game assignment suits him well, but he is making his debut.

Min Woo Lee
The in-form Aussie has shown himself capable of performing on any type of track. A GPCC debut is a fresh challenge but one he could easily enjoy.

Gavin Green
The Portugal Masters runner-up has been impressive over the last three months and should approach this assignment in confident mood.

Gary Player Country Club course guide

Course Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa
Prize money $6m ($1.02m to the winner)
Length 7,834 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 66 (no cut)
Highest-ranked players taking part (world ranking in brackets) Tommy Fleetwood (25), Ryan Fox (26), Lucas Herbert (55), Adrian Meronk (59), Min Woo Lee (60)

Course records- 72 holes 263 Ernie Els (1999) 18 holes 62 Lee Westwood (2011)

Course winners taking part Oliver Bekker, Branden Grace, Tommy Fleetwood, Christiaan Bezuidenhout

When to bet By 7am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9am on Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Nedbank Challenge became part of the European Tour Final Series for the first time in 2016, with the field size increasing from 30 to 72. Traditionally only 12 players went to post in this elite gathering, but European Tour involvement in 2013 prompted changes. The Gary Player Country Club has hosted the Nedbank (formerly the Million Dollar Challenge) since 1981. The Dimension-Data Pro-Am (1996 to 2009), the Sun City Challenge (2007-11 and 2016-19), the Royal Swazi Open (2020), the Blue Label Challenge (2021-22), the Vodacom Origins of Golf Final (2022) and the SunBet Challenge (2022) are six low-grade Sunshine Tour events which were also staged at this venue, while the last two South African Opens (2020-21) have been there as well. The course is enormous, but a variety of tees can be used to alter the yardage if bad weather makes the full length unplayable. The layout boasts kikuyu fairways and fast, bentgrass greens surrounded by bunkers, swales and mounds. Some low scores were carded many years ago – Padraig Harrington shot an 11-under-par 61 in 2001 playing with preferred lies, while Ernie Els (25 under par in 1999) and Nick Price (24 under in 1993) have also butchered Player's design. The lengthening of the course, though, has made it tougher. The last Nedbank was in 2019 - won by Tommy Fleetwood

Weather forecast Sunny and hot, with temperatures of 33C in round one. Light to moderate breezes, with a weekend thunderstorm threat

Type of player suited to the challenge Quality ball-strikers have asserted themselves on the Gary Player Country Club over the last decade - churning out greens in regulation is the key to success

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 26 under par for his last eight competitive rounds at Gary Player Country Club

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