Steve Palmer's Mayakoba Classic free golf betting tips, predictions & TV details

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Mayakoba Classic at El Camaleon on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7pm on Thursday

Best bets

Harris English
3pts each-way 16-1 general
Abraham Ancer
2.5pts each-way 18-1 BoyleSports
Corey Conners
2pts each-way 33-1 Hills

Tournament preview

Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are taking a huge chunk out of the market for the Mayakoba Classic, but will either of them possess the motivation, concentration and discipline to justify their short prices over 72 holes at the tight, fiddly El Camaleon layout?

Thomas, fourth in the Masters last time out, is prone to a destructive shot or two, despite his obvious class, and loose hitting in the Mayakoba Classic can ruin a scorecard. Thomas finished 23rd in his only previous El Camaleon visit and is easy to pass over at the odds.

Koepka, seventh at the Masters and ten shots behind Dustin Johnson, has dropped to world number 12 and victory in the Mayakoba Classic would do nothing for Koepka's clearly bruised ego. He missed the cut by two shots in his only previous El Camaleon start.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Harris English 16-1

If Thomas and Koepka fail to apply themselves properly at El Camaleon, expect Harris English to take advantage - the Georgia man has developed a commendable consistency over the last season and a half and should soon be rewarded with a third PGA Tour title.

While Koepka was hacking his way to a missed cut in the 2013 Mayakoba, English enjoyed a four-shot victory - his second Tour success - and it seemed like a glorious future lay ahead for the champion. No further triumphs have followed, but at the age of 31 English has found an all-round polish which sets him up well for the rest of his career.

English has posted a top-20 finish in 12 of his last 17 tournaments, a streak including second place behind Dustin Johnson in The Northern Trust, fourth in the US Open and sixth last time in the RSM Classic. A closing 62 meant he left the RSM with maximum confidence and he has headed to a happy hunting ground this week knowing he is a serious contender.

Last year English was in the Mayakoba mix throughout, eventually having to settle for fifth place, having entered the event outside the top 200 of the world rankings. He returns as the world number 33, self-belief rising as he continues to dwell on leaderboards.

Next best bet

Abraham Ancer 18-1

Mexico may finally get the home winner it craves on Sunday. Carlos Ortiz won the Houston Open last month and his compatriot Abraham Ancer could be ready to follow with a PGA Tour breakthrough of his own.

Ancer did not play in Houston because he was preparing for a Masters debut - a maiden spin along Augusta's pristine fairways which yielded a berth in the final group on the Sunday. Ancer showed great courage throughout the event, competing alongside Phil Mickelson for two days, then Thomas in round three, then Dustin Johnson in round four, and got a peek at the Green Jacket before dropping to 13th place.

Ancer has solid form figures of 9-21-8 from the last three editions of the Mayakoba and since the last one he has taken his game to a new level, top scoring on his Presidents Cup debut and finishing runner-up twice on the PGA Tour, most recently in the Heritage in June when Webb Simpson needed to cover the final seven holes in five under par to defeat him by a shot.

Other selection

Corey Conners 33-1

Ancer has a game ideally suited to El Camaleon and the same can be said of Corey Conners, despite him failing to make an impact in his two previous visits. The Canadian was 619th in the world rankings before finishing 75th on his Mayakoba debut in 2017 and 271st before a missed cut in 2018. This week he returns as a PGA Tour champion ranked 55th in the world.

Conners had the stuffing knocked out of him in the BMW Championship in August - a final-hole putting nightmare costing him a place in the Tour Championship - but from the Zozo Championship onwards the Canadian has got his mojo back.

Eighth place in the Zozo was followed by tenth spot in the Masters and tenth again in the RSM Classic. Expect this greens in regulation machine to feature on the El Camaleon leaderboard too.

Players to note

Russell Henley
The three-time PGA Tour champion has hit form with five post-lockdown top-tens and he improved his score each day of the RSM Classic last time out. His last eight events have yielded a top-30.

Will Zalatoris
The Korn Ferry Tour star has gained PGA Tour membership and already seems good enough to contend for silverware. A Mayakoba debut may mean a slow start.

Daniel Berger
The world number 13, who missed the Masters because the field was set in stone so early, is clearly eager for action. He was 51st in his only previous El Camaleon spin.

Brendon Todd
The defending champion relishes this layout, but has gone off the boil this season and is in danger of drifting outside the world's top 50.

El Camaleon course guide

Course El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa del Carmen, Mexico
Prize money $7.2m ($1.296m to the winner)
Length 7,039 yards
Par 71
Field 132
Course records- 72 holes 262 Matt Kuchar (2018) 18 holes 61 Roland Thatcher (2008)

Course winners taking part Brian Gay, Johnson Wagner, John Huh, Harris English, Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell, Pat Perez, Patton Kizzire, Brendon Todd

When to bet By midday Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7pm on Thursday

Time difference Mexico is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Mayakoba PGA Tour gathering takes place on the stunning Greg Norman-designed El Camaleon. This tournament, which started in 2007, was previously staged in February, running alongside the Accenture Match Play, until getting its own autumn date in 2013. One minute on this layout, the competitors are working their way through holes deep in tropical jungle and the next they emerge to oceanside holes where bare-chested spectators watch the action from the beach. El Camaleon is a quirky, fiddly track with limestone canals bisecting certain holes and there is even a cave which splits the first fairway into two sections. Sound course management is required, although scores in the low 60s have been recorded regularly by players with fairway-finding ability.

The story of last year Brendon Todd edged out Adam Long, Carlos Ortiz and Vaughn Taylor by a shot

Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and showers, and light to moderate breezes, with temperatures pleasant throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The Mayakoba honours board is filled with accurate drivers and it appears the only way to compete at El Camaleon is from the fairway. With peculiar troublespots waiting to punish the errant, precision operators like Fred Funk, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson, John Huh, Graeme McDowell, Pat Perez, Matt Kuchar and Todd have relished the challenge.

Key attribute Accuracy

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook