Steve Palmer's Masters day-three tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Saturday

Best bets

Brooks Koepka to win Masters
4pts 6-4 BoyleSports

Tiger Woods to miss cut
2pts 5-4 Betfair, BoyleSports

Brooks Koepka to beat Sam Burns straight forecast
1pt 50-1 bet365

Ryan Fox top Australasian/Oceania
1pt 15-2 BoyleSports

Advised on April 7

Brooks Koepka second-round leader
3pts 7-2 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Brooks Koepka is three shots clear in the Masters at Augusta, the pre-tournament 40-1 shortening to 6-4 after two days of action in Georgia.

Koepka, who started his Masters week with a practice round alongside Rory McIlroy, took a stranglehold on the event in excellent Friday-morning conditions. While McIlroy destroyed his Masters hopes with a 77, Koepka followed his first-round 65 with a 67, moving to 12 under par.

The Floridian, who won the LIV Golf Orlando event last Sunday, will have his feet up in front of the television at the start of day three of the Masters as several of his rivals still have to complete their second rounds on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms arrived on Friday afternoon, wild enough to fell three trees.

Jon Rahm, alone in second place, should make a two-putt par at the tenth on his return, but terrible weather is forecast for Saturday, so the Spaniard seems unlikely to close the gap on Koepka before the final 36 holes.

Leaderboard
-12 Brooks Koepka (through 36 holes)
-9 Jon Rahm (27)
-8 Sam Bennett (36)
-6 Collin Morikawa (36), Viktor Hovland (28)-5 Jason Day (36), Sam Burns (36), Jordan Spieth (36), Cameron Young (27)

Others to note
-4 Phil Mickelson (36), Joaquin Niemann (36), Justin Rose (36), Patrick Reed (32), Shane Lowry (31), Adam Scott (28)
-3 Hideki Matsuyama (26)
-2 Matt Fitzpatrick (36), Tom Kim (36), Justin Thomas (27), Cameron Smith (26)
-1 Scottie Scheffler (36), Tony Finau (36), Xander Schauffele (28)Par Max Homa (36), Patrick Cantlay (28)
+2 Tiger Woods (29)
+5 Rory McIlroy (36)
+7 Louis Oosthuizen (35)

Best prices
6-4 B Koepka, 2 J Rahm, 18 C Morikawa, V Hovland, 20 C Young, 22 J Spieth, 28 J Day, 35 S Bennett, 40 S Burns, 55 bar

The Masters day-three preview

Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young and others look almost certain to have miserable weather conditions for the remainder of their second round, so Brooks Koepka seems highly likely to take a commanding lead into the final 36 holes.

Koepka, recommended for second-round leader at 7-2 going into Friday's action, is in a strong position to oblige in that market, while the 6-4 available about him going on to take the Green Jacket seems more than fair.

Heavy rain, a stiff breeze, and cold temperatures never bettering 10C, look set to greet Rahm, Hovland and Young when they return to the course on Saturday. Pars will be golden and the most likely scenario in terms of Koepka's 36-hole lead must be four shots (over Sam Bennett).

If the rain is so heavy that it floods the track – a sub-air drainage system is in place throughout the property but it is going to be seriously tested – then the Masters will fall even further behind schedule. In the worst-case scenario of Rahm and Co having to complete round two on Sunday, they will start in temperatures forecast to be 7C and a moderate breeze.

Whenever Rahm, Hovland and Young play the rest of their second round, it seems almost certain to be in difficult conditions, so Koepka looks in full control.

There were question marks over the ability of the LIV circuit to ready players for the intensity of Major golf – the LIV schedule is light and events are staged over just three rounds. Dustin Johnson has played only nine competitive rounds this year, while Cameron Smith has been coasting and struggling for form.

Koepka, though, has been one of the most determined figures on the LIV tour. He entered the Saudi International and the International Series Oman, giving himself five tournaments to build up to the Masters, and this year has been spent in heavy practice with his coach Claude Harmon. The pair have had an on-off relationship through the years, but Koepka has upped his work-rate in the last few months with his health improving.

Missed cuts in the last two Masters could be disregarded given Koepka's injury issues, but fitness and form have improved at the perfect time for a Masters title tilt. He is moving freely, like the Koepka of old. He tied second behind Tiger Woods in the 2019 Masters and looks set to go one better at Augusta this time. Punters who took the heavy hints and backed Koepka at the pre-tournament 40-1 should be on excellent terms with themselves. It will probably not be long before he goes odds-on.

WGC-Match Play champion Sam Burns, safely in the clubhouse through 36 holes and with the firepower to handle what will be a soggy Augusta on his return to action, looks a lively candidate to finish Masters runner-up. The Koepka-Burns straight forecast is on offer at 50-1.

At the other end of the leaderboard, Woods could be following his pal McIlroy out of the tournament. Bookmakers believe Woods will make the cut, but 5-4 seems a generous offer about him failing. The weekend forecast has been giving Tiger nightmares all week – he was downbeat when asked about it in his pre-tournament media conference – and his brittle back will be tested by the cold, damp conditions.

Woods will return on two over par, with seven holes to play. Starting off on the 12th tee is a challenge in itself, but with wind, rain and chill thrown into the mix, it is a hugely daunting opening shot. Tiger will have to draw on all his experience and courage to stay above the cut-line to the clubhouse.

Ryan Fox will have no fears about tackling a long, soft Augusta in chilly weather. The power-packed Kiwi, used to adapting his game to all conditions on the DP World Tour, appears to have a much better chance of success in the top Australasian/Oceania section than the bookmakers believe. Jason Day, putting abysmally coming home in round two, looks a vulnerable favourite. Like Woods, Day has a brittle body unsuited to cold and damp.

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