Steve Palmer's Mallorca Open final-round preview and free golf betting tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf red button, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Rasmus Hojgaard to win Mallorca Open
1pt each-way 40-1 bet365

Nicolai Hojgaard to win Mallorca Open
1pt each-way 25-1 general

Hurly Long to win 11am threeball
1pt 15-8 Betfair, Power

Ryan Fox to win 11.30am threeball
1pt 7-5 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Ryan Fox and Yannik Paul, 16-1 and 25-1 ante-post, are joint-leaders of the Mallorca Golf Open with 18 holes to play at Son Muntaner GC, Palma, Spain.

Fox compiled a bogey-free Saturday 65, while Paul went nine under par through 11 holes, threatening a 59, before parring his remaining seven holes to complete a 62. Fox is 5-4 favourite going into Sunday, with Paul available at 11-5.

English trio Dale Whitnell, Marcus Armitage and Richard Mansell come next on the leaderboard, with the Hojgaard brothers lurking just off the pace. Andy Sullivan is alone in 15th place, six shots behind, and anyone behind him probably feels their race is run.

Leaderboard
-16 Ryan Fox, Yannik Paul
-14 Dale Whitnell, Marcus Armitage
-13 Richard Mansell
-12 Nicolai von Dellingshausen, Jazz Janewattananond, Nicolai Hojgaard
-11 Rasmus Hojgaard, Lukas Nemecz, Darius van Driel, Hurly Long, Renato Paratore, Connor Syme

Best prices
5-4 R Fox, 11-5 Y Paul, 10 M Armitage, 12 R Mansell, D Whitnell, 25 N Hojgaard, 40 J Janewattananond, R Hojgaard, 55 N Von Dellingshausen, 80 H Long, 100 bar

Final-round preview

Yannik Paul looked extremely uncomfortable once he hit the top of the Son Muntaner leaderboard and the German fails to appeal at just 11-5 for victory.

Paul, with his striking blonde girlfriend Kaela attracting the attention of the Sky Sports cameras as she followed her man's progress, lost his game as the chance to kick clear in front presented itself.

Paul is ranked 190th in the world and has no main-tour success to his name, so, despite bright recent efforts on the Spanish Swing of the DP World Tour, it was not surprising to see him tighten up.

Ryan Fox is of more interest at 5-4 as he chases the third victory of the best season of his career. The New Zealander has finished second three times this year, so could have had five titles in the bag with a bit more luck here and there.

Fox did not need to putt that well in round three to hit the top of the board - he is finding Son Muntaner a doddle from tee to green - and there can be little question that he is the most likely winner with a round to go.

An investment at 5-4 in Fox is a perfectly acceptable, if uninspiring, Sunday play. But there are clearly low scores available at Son Muntaner - and Sunday's forecast for sunny, calm skies lends itself to birdies. We have already seen a 61, a 62 and five 63s this week.

Preference to a chunk on Fox is more speculative wagers on the Hojgaard brothers, who are obvious candidates to provide the round in the low 60s which pressures the leaders. Hurly Long and the Hojgaards could be the trio to deliver the Sunday birdie barrage which gives Fox a game. Long is onside ante-post, so backing the Hojgaards at 40-1 and 25-1 appeals at this stage, with three each-way places still up for grabs.

Rasmus Hojgaard has been in contention all week. He is eight under par for the front nine, so appears well equipped to make an early charge from five shots behind on Sunday. The three-time Tour champion has been playing superbly in recent weeks, finishing runner-up in the French Open.

Nicolai Hojgaard, one shot closer to the lead than his brother, closed round three with a trio of birdies to set up a serious Sunday title tilt. These top-class twins, fearless in contention, are the names who will give Fox most to fret about should they move on to the first page of the leaderboard.

Fox seems a solid final-round threeball option at odds-against to defeat Paul and Marcus Armitage (11.30am UK and Ireland), while German birdie machine Long appeals against Darius van Driel and Renato Paratore (11am).

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport