Steve Palmer's Magical Kenya Open predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Kenya Open at Muthaiga GC on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am on Thursday

Best bets

Oliver Bekker
2pts each-way 40-1 bet365

Shubhankar Sharma
1.5pts each-way 45-1 bet365

David Law
1pt each-way 70-1 bet365

Connor Syme
1pt each-way 55-1 bet365

Adrien Saddier
0.5pt each-way 150-1 bet365

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The top of the Kenya Open market is congested, with Dean Burmester, Justin Harding, Adri Arnaus, Adrian Meronk, Thomas Detry and Johannes Veerman all earning plenty of respect from the bookmaking community.

Meronk, fifth in the 2017 Kenya Open at this course and impressive on the DP World Tour this year, is the most appealing of the market principals. Preference, though, is for bigger odds about five others for a wide-open affair.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Oliver Bekker 40-1

South African ace Oliver Bekker can hit the ground running at Muthaiga this week and threaten a maiden DP World Tour title.

Bekker is one of few players in this line-up with positive course experience. He was 18th on his Muthaiga debut in the 2010 Kenya Open - when he was outside the world's top 1,300. The Pretorian finished 14th at the track in 2012 and sixth in 2018.

Bekker is a seven-time Sunshine Tour champion who excelled on the Challenge Tour last season, then was runner-up in the South African Open just before Christmas. Apparently peaking at the age of 37, Bekker finished ninth in both of the DP World Tour Ras al Khaimah events last month.

The South Africans are obviously more comfortable in the Kenya conditions than overseas raiders and a South African won the last Kenya Open.

Next best bet

Shubhankar Sharma 45-1

Two-time European Tour champion Shubhankar Sharma may complete his hat-trick on Sunday. The Indian's maiden title came in Africa - the 2018 Joburg Open - and the 25-year-old could fall in love with Muthaiga on his course debut.

Sharma has slowly but surely rediscovered his best form over the last seven months - and second place behind Thomas Pieters in the Abu Dhabi Championship was a huge boost to confidence. Sharma was beaten by just a shot in a Rolex Series event at the end of January, so deserves immense respect for the Kenya Open.

Other selections

David Law 70-1

Connor Syme 55-1

Adrien Saddier 150-1

Complete the staking plan with two accurate Scots and an underachieving Frenchman. David Law won on the Challenge Tour in 2018, then on the European Tour in 2019. He has form from Africa from his ProGolf Tour days - a victory in Morocco and a runner-up effort in Egypt - and he has twice finished 60th at Muthaiga when deep in the world rankings. This time - after Ras al Khaimah results of 7-25 - Law looks a likely contender.

Connor Syme, only 26 and still improving, won on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and finished third in the Kenya Open at Karen CC last year. He has got a solid record in Africa generally and clicked into gear in Ras al Khaimah last time out, with 27th place in the Championship followed by sixth in the Classic.

When Adrien Saddier won on the Challenge Tour in 2016, he looked likely to make an impact in higher grades, but he remains a maiden at the age of 29. Saddier was sixth in the 2013 Nelson Mandela Championship, then went well for a long way in the South African Open in 2018, finishing seventh. His most eyecatching piece of Africa form, though, came at Muthaiga in the 2017 Kenya Open - he carded a second-round 62 on his way to second place.

Saddier makes his second visit to Muthaiga this week and is in high spirits. He became a father over Christmas and says he feels calmer on the golf course. There were some promising signs at the end of last year - seventh at Crans was followed by 15th in the Dutch Open - then seventh place in the Dimension Data Pro-Am last month was another solid effort.

Players to note

Daniel van Tonder
The South African won the Kenya Savannah Classic last year and must be shortlisted for Muthaiga.

Francesco Laporta
The Italian was third in the 2017 Kenya Open at Muthaiga and could easily threaten the places again.

Matti Schmid
The European Tour Rookie of the Year looks destined for a great career. Obvious dangerman.

Julien Brun
The consistent Frenchman has been a prolific winner of low-grade events. He could add this to the list.

Muthaiga course guide

Course Muthaiga Golf Club, Nairobi, Kenya
Prize money €1.75m (€291,725 to the winner)
Length 7,184 yards
Par 71 - four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Dean Burmester (75), Daniel van Tonder (81), Marcus Helligkilde (96), Justin Harding (98), Guido Migliozzi (107)

Course records- 72 holes 265 James Lee, Maarten Lafeber, Lee James 18 holes 61 Jacob Okello (2008 PGK Masters)

Course winner taking part Lorenzo Gagli

When to bet By 4.10am Thursday morning

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am on Thursday

Time difference Kenya is three hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Kenya Open was a Challenge Tour event from 1991 to 2018, being played at Muthaiga from 1991 through 2002, then from 2009 through 2012, then 2017 and 2018. Karen CC has staged the two European Tour Kenya Opens (2019 and 2021). Peter Matkovich renovated the tree-lined course in 2004. It is located on the edge of the Karura forest. The front nine is undulating, while the back nine is routed around several man-made lakes. The winning scores at Muthaiga have been between eight under and 19 under, with 11 under the best total in the last Kenya Open there

Story of last year Justin Harding beat Kurt Kitayama by two shots at Karen Country Club

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with moderate afternoon breezes, throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The DP World Tour professionals should find Muthaiga easy enough, with 19 under par winning three of the Challenge Tour events there. Accurate drivers like Lorenzo Gagli, Aaron Rai, Robert Dinwiddie and Maarten Lafeber have won at Muthaiga.

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Ten of the 18 Challenge Tour events at Muthaiga were won by a British player

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