Steve Palmer's Kenya Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 9.30am Sunday

Best bets

Matti Schmid to win Kenya Open
1pt each-way 12-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Ewen Ferguson has charged four shots ahead through three rounds of the Kenya Open - the 25-year-old Scot becoming a 5-4 chance for a DP World Tour breakthrough.

Ferguson, a Challenge Tour graduate who was 200-1 ante-post, eagled his fourth hole of round three on his way to a 66 and a 14-under-par total. He is the world number 317 and he finished second-from-last in the Ras al Khaimah Classic last time out, missing the cut by 13 shots.

Shubhankar Sharma led at the halfway stage of the Kenya Open, but the Indian endured a nightmare Saturday afternoon, dropping to a share of 17th place after a miserable 75. Sharma found water at the 17th hole as part of a bogey-free back-nine 39 which has left him eight shots behind.

An 81 from Adrian Meronk dropped him into last place, while Dean Burmester carded a nine at the par-three 13th in a round of 76.

Leaderboard
-14 Ewen Ferguson
-10 Ashun Wu, Marcus Kinhult
-9 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez, David Horsey, Jorge Campillo, Matti Schmid
-8 Masahiro Kawamura, Matthieu Pavon, Aaron Cockerill, Thomas Detry

Best prices
5-4 E Ferguson, 15-2 A Wu, 9 M Kinhult, 12 M Schmid, 16 D Horsey, J Campillo, 20 T Detry, 25 M Pavon, M Kawamura, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Ewen Ferguson was inspired in round three of the Kenya Open, swinging with freedom and making the game look easy, and it will be interesting to see if the Glaswegian can repeat the dose under much greater pressure on Sunday.

Ferguson earned promotion from the Challenge Tour without winning a tournament, so punters are lacking certainty over his ability to get the job done in Kenya, even with such a commanding lead.

Bookmakers will be hoping the leader hangs on, given the lack of clue Ferguson gave punters with his Ras al Khaimah Classic effort. Rarely has a golfer gone from a ten-over-par performance to a 14-under-par one, but Ferguson has quickly turned things around.

Ashun Wu is a three-time Tour winner, but the world number 342 is an unappealing 15-2 chance, while Marcus Kinhult is still getting back to fitness and form after an epilepsy issue sent shockwaves through his career.

Given Shubhankar Sharma's sorry Saturday, the main threat to Ferguson in round four may turn out to be rising star, Matti Schmid. The 12-1 about the German seems by far the best value with 18 holes to play at Muthaiga.

Schmid, European Amateur champion in 2019 and 2020, then leading amateur in the 2021 Open, was named Rookie of the Year for the 2021 European Tour season. The 24-year-old is bristling with potential and should become a champion on the DP World Tour sooner rather than later.

Schmid has warmed to his task at Muthaiga and a third-round 64 indicated that he has got a handle on the track on his course debut.
If Ferguson wobbles in front, Schmid could be the man waiting to take advantage. He was bogey-free in round three and signed off with back-to-back birdies.

Schmid is in the penultimate twoball in round four, alongside Wu at 9.30am UK and Ireland time. Ferguson and Kinhult board the first tee at 9.40am.

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport