Steve Palmer's Joburg Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and analysis for the Joburg Open at Randpark Golf Club on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 10am Saturday

Best bets

Zander Lombard to beat Ashley Chesters in final round
3pts 4-5 bet365

Story so far

The Covid developments in South Africa have had an instant impact on the opening event of the DP World Tour - the Joburg Open has been reduced to 54 holes and next week's South African Open has been downgraded from DP World Tour status to merely Sunshine Tour.

A field of 156 went to post in the Joburg Open, but 25 players have already withdrawn, leaving 131 attempting to make the cut on Saturday morning. A Friday afternoon thunderstorm meant the second round could not be completed before darkness enveloped Randpark Golf Club.

Round two will be concluded on Saturday morning, then a cut will be made, with the third and final round commencing soon after that. The lack of Sunday competition is designed to give competitors a better chance of reaching the destinations they require as travel restrictions are enforced in the wake of the new coronavirus variant which has been found in South Africa.

The Alfred Dunhill Championship, which was scheduled for the week after next, has been cancelled. Thriston Lawrence, a pre-tournament 225-1 chance for the Joburg Open, is a best-price 8-11 going into Saturday. Lawrence leads by four shots after two days of action at Randpark.

Leaderboard
-12 Thriston Lawrence
-8 Zander Lombard
-7 Ashley Chesters
-6 Angel Hidalgo, Shaun Norris (through 12 holes of round two)
-5 Hennie De Plessis

Best prices
8-11 T Lawrence, 9-2 Z Lombard, 9 S Norris, 10 A Chesters, 40 A Hidalgo, H De Plessis, 80 bar

Final-round preview

An epic final day of Joburg Open action is scheduled to start at 6.30am local time (4.30am UK and Ireland), with all eyes on Shaun Norris. The only player within seven shots of the lead with second-round holes to finish, Norris has a chance to move into second place.

It seems unlikely - Norris has one par-five and two par-threes in his remaining six holes - and a chilly, breezy morning seems set to greet the Johannesburg-born 39-year-old.

If Norris fails to make early headway, the Joburg Open could turn into a Saturday shootout between Thriston Lawrence and Zander Lombard.

Lawrence relishes the Firethorn Course at Randpark GC. He won the 2018 Sunshine Tour Qualifying School there by four shots, building on a superb amateur career which saw him twice become South African Amateur champion.

Lawrence was only 16-years-old when he beat Lombard in the quarter-finals of the 2013 South African Amateur - the first of his back-to-back SAA triumphs - and he is looking to see off Lombard again in the Joburg Open.

Lawrence, super-talented from a young age, is yet to turn his magnificent amateur career into a hugely successful pro career, but the 24-year-old has posted four top-six finishes on the Sunshine Tour this year, and he closed with a 64 in his last Sunshine Tour outing before a commendable 50th-place finish in the increasingly competitive Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School.

Lawrence showed he could handle the lead at the Firethorn Course in the five-round Q School there three years ago - and Racing Post Sport followers are hoping the pre-tournament 225-1 recommendation can repel his pursuers at the same track on Saturday.

Punters with a decent investment in Lawrence may choose to have some cover at 9-2 on Lombard, who seems the most likely to give the leader a game.

Lombard, though, like Lawrence, has never won on the European Tour - and has squandered opportunities to do so. Lombard lost a playoff to Alvaro Quiros for the 2017 Rocco Forte Open and finished second to Haydn Porteous in the Joburg Open in 2016.

Lombard, home-schooled as a kid, has shown a lack of mental toughness when in contention in the past, so hopes are high that Lawrence can defeat him. If the final threeball becomes Lawrence, Lombard and Chesters, the leader will certainly not fear his opposition.

The course comfort of Lombard is what makes him the chief threat. He has twice finished 15th in European Tour events at Randpark, despite arriving for them in poor form. A rain-softened Randpark is ideal terrain for the power-packed Lombard.

The 9-2 Lombard seems a solid outright cover option for punters on Lawrence, while the 4-5 that Lombard beats Chesters in the final round looks a decent wager for anyone. Bet365 have attempted to jazz up the Saturday viewing with some 18-hole match-ups - and Lombard to defeat Chesters is the most appealing.

Chesters, a Shrewsbury man who must be fretting about his travel plans, lacks the punch off the tee to set himself up well on a long, soft track. He could see himself left behind by the two South Africans ahead of him on the leaderboard.

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