Steve Palmer's Italian Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Sunday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy to win the Italian Open
4pts 15-8 general

Lucas Herbert top Rest of the World
4pts 8-15 BoyleSports

Tom Lewis lowest final-round score
1pt each-way 50-1 BoyleSports

Story so far

The cream has risen to the top of the leaderboard through three rounds of the Italian Open, with Matt Fitzpatrick in pole position and Rory McIlroy only a shot behind.

McIlroy was pre-tournament 7-2 favourite, while Fitzpatrick was second in the betting at 10-1. With only 18 holes to play at Marco Simone Golf Club, Fitzpatrick is a standout 15-8 with BoyleSports, with McIlroy on offer at a more general 15-8. It is 9-1 bar the front two.

Fitzpatrick had catching up to do after a birdie-free third-round front nine, but the US Open champion played well on the back, going three under par to the clubhouse for a 69. A level-par round of 71 meant McIlroy surrendered his halfway advantage.

Viktor Hovland, who was third in the ante-post betting, is tied for 32nd place, nine shots behind Fitzpatrick.

Leaderboard
-10 Matt Fitzpatrick
-9 Aaron Rai, Rory McIlroy
-8 Kurt Kitayama, Lucas Herbert, Victor Perez
-7 Robert MacIntyre, Oliver Bekker
-6 Tyrrell Hatton
-5 Mikko Korhonen, Jordan Smith, Tom Lewis

Best prices
15-8 M Fitzpatrick, R McIlroy, 9 A Rai, 12 L Herbert, 14 K Kitayama, 16 V Perez, 28 R MacIntyre, 40 T Hatton, 50 O Bekker, 150 J Smith, 200 bar

Final-round preview

Matt Fitzpatrick used his unusual crosshanded chipping technique to get up and down from beside the green for an 18th-hole birdie in round three - and the Sheffield man looks set for a thrilling Sunday shootout with Rory McIlroy.

Of course, it is too early to describe this tournament as a two-runner race - every member of the top six on the leaderboard is a DP World Tour champion - but Fitzpatrick and McIlroy have been playing at a level this year which the others can't hold a candle to.

Getting into contention was the difficult bit for Fitzpatrick and McIlroy - the weather has been unsettled in Rome for three days and there has been plenty of breeze - but Sunday is expected to have warm sunshine and calm skies. The stage seems set for the US Open champion and the FedEx Cup champion to battle it out for the title.

Hopefully Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament 175-1 each-way recommendation Tom Lewis can produce a low final round to get into the places from his current share of tenth, but a five-shot deficit on Fitzpatrick has made Lewis's winning chance remote. This seems a moment to decide between 15-8 Fitzpatrick and 15-8 McIlroy.

The conditions over the first three days suited to the solid and gritty Fitzpatrick - and the change in weather for round four may swing the contest in the favour of McIlroy. The three par-fives and the driveable par-fours should be at the mercy of the world number two on Sunday. It seems likely to be a day of birdies and low scores, and the swashbuckling Northern Irishman could be in his element.

McIlroy was making his course debut this week, so is gaining more confidence on the layout each day, and a winning Italian Open debut seems on the cards. Fitzpatrick can run him close, with Lucas Herbert a likely candidate for third place.

The final threeball of Fitzpatrick, McIlroy and Aaron Rai is scheduled on the tee at 12.30pm local time (11.30am UK and Ireland time).
Herbert and his magic-wand putter can kick clear from the front of the top Rest of the World competition - the Aussie can essentially be backed at 8-15 to repel Oliver Bekker - while Lewis is worth backing at 50-1 to produce the lowest Sunday score of anyone.

The Saturday draw was a difficult one for Lewis - a threeball with McIlroy and Fitzpatrick - and the world number 655 understandably took time to settle. A bogey-free three-under-par back-nine, though, meant Lewis finished round three strongly, and he can carry that form into Sunday. Lewis's laserlike irons make a round in the low-60s well within his compass.

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