Steve Palmer's Honda Classic final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Sunday

Best bets

Shane Lowry without Daniel Berger
3pts 9-4 bet365, BoyleSports, Hills

Adam Svensson without Daniel Berger
2pts 7-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Power

Already advised outright on February 26

Adam Svensson to win Honda Classic
2pts each-way 14-1 general

Shane Lowry to win Honda Classic
1pt each-way 25-1 general

Story so far

Daniel Berger will take a five-shot lead into Sunday of the Honda Classic, having followed up back-to-back rounds of 65 with a 69 at PGA National, Florida.

Berger, 16-1 ante-post, was a general 5-6 chance with 36 holes to play, shortening to 1-4 after hanging tough on a difficult Saturday. Only 13 of the 73 weekend qualifiers carded an under-par third round, but Berger was one of them.

The Floridian withdrew from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on tournament-eve at the start of this month with a back injury, then he missed the cut by three shots in the Phoenix Open on his return to action, but fitness and form has returned close to home.

Berger lost a playoff to Padraig Harrington for the 2015 Honda Classic - and it is another Irishman who is best placed to upset the local man again. Shane Lowry is tied for second place, teeing off in the final twoball alongside Berger at 6.35pm UK and Ireland time. Lowry is a best-price 11-1 for victory.

Leaderboard
-11 Daniel Berger
-6 Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Kurt Kitayama, Chris Kirk
-5 Adam Svensson
-2 Sam Ryder, Martin Contini, Dylan Frittelli, Alexander Noren, John Huh, Lee Hodges

Best prices
1-4 D Berger, 11 S Lowry, 16 C Kirk, 22 S Straka, 33 K Kitayama, 40 A Svensson, 400 A Noren, 750 bar

Final-round preview

Daniel Berger is seeking a first PGA Tour title in his home state of Florida and the 28-year-old, a four-time PGA Tour champion, has set up a golden opportunity.

Last year's Pebble Beach Pro-Am victor has not played spectacular golf, but he is a grinder who manages his game well, and this week's assignment has been ideal for the Jupiter-based star.

The assessment of Berger's title hopes remain the same as they did 24 hours ago. The leader is obviously the most likely winner, but his ugly swing is prone to mishits - as he showed when hacking his way up the 18th hole on Saturday - and PGA National typically has severe punishments for shaky ball-striking. Even with a five-shot buffer, this tournament is a long way from done.

Berger has got Racing Post Sport's outright selections on the run. Pre-tournament 33-1 tip, Alex Noren, is tied for seventh place and still has place claims, but the Swede is nine shots behind Berger, while halfway recommendations Adam Svensson (14-1) and Shane Lowry (25-1) are six and five shots behind respectively.

Anyone yet to support Lowry has every right to be considering the 11-1 on offer today, but preference is for bolstering those two halfway investments with two bets on the same duo in the newly-opened 'without Berger' market.

Svensson won the PGA Tour Qualifying School at the PGA National complex in 2015 (two rounds were staged on the same track used for the Honda) and he confirmed that liking for the course with a Friday 64 on his Honda debut. This week, the Canadian lies sixth after three rounds, and the three-time Korn Ferry Tour champion is loving life at such a happy hunting ground.

Lowry, a neighbour of Berger having become a Jupiter resident himself, made a solid start to this year in the Middle East and has carried that form to PGA National. His putting has improved as the week has worn on and Lowry has said he is relishing the difficulty of the layout, finding it a refreshing change from the Tour's typical birdiefests.

Lowry had the best round of Saturday and if he delivers the best round of Sunday, Berger could have problems. The former Open champion is in the final twoball, so the Major champion of the pairing has the chance to apply maximum pressure.

Berger has been scrambling well, but has been loose off the tee at times, and the superior driving of Lowry could swing the contest his way.

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