Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge third-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland to win twoball
2pts 17-20 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Bryson DeChambeau made a double-bogey at the 18th hole in round one and another double at the 16th hole in round two, but the Californian crusher leads the Hero World Challenge by a shot going into the weekend at Albany, Bahamas.

A slightly pulled approach shot found water at 18 on Thursday, while DeChambeau drove into a bush at 16 on Friday, but the powerhouse has carded 16 birdies to repair the damage. The world number seven is a best-price 100-30 for victory, having started the event freely available at 12-1.

Recently crowned Race to Dubai champion, Collin Morikawa, is among a trio tied for second place. Morikawa can become world number one with a Hero triumph. Brooks Koepka, who beat DeChambeau in a televised matchplay contest last week, is also only one shot behind his rival.

There are 14 shots separating the field, with Henrik Stenson the backmarker in the 20-man event. Ante-post favourite, Rory McIlroy, is tied for eighth place, four shots off the pace. Justin Thomas, competing for the first time since laser eye surgery, is a further two shots adrift. A clear Saturday with light to moderate breezes is forecast.

Leaderboard
-11 Bryson DeChambeau
-10 Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka
-9 Daniel Berger
-8 Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton
-7 Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy

Best prices
100-30 B DeChambeau, 7-2 C Morikawa, 11-2 B Koepka, 7 T Finau, 11 R McIlroy, 12 D Berger, S Burns, 20 V Hovland, T Hatton, 33 P Reed, 40 bar

Third-round preview

Bryson DeChambeau is extremely comfortable at Albany, which is his close-season practice base, but he has failed to make a serious impact in previous World Challenges at the track. Birdies have come freely, but cardbusters have cost him dear.

The aggressive 28-year-old has got the balance right so far in The Bahamas - making more than enough birdies to offset a couple of slip-ups - and he can approach the weekend with confidence. The way he bounced back from the 16th debacle with a brilliant tee-shot at the 17th for a tap-in birdie was a hugely encouraging sign for DeChambeau backers.

DeChambeau was rusty and underprepared for The Match against Brooks Koepka last week, but reaction to that defeat has been strong. DeChambeau has been sharper this week and should be tough to beat.

The leader was a Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation at 12-1, and punters with a decent wager at that price can be on good terms with themselves. The list of dangers, though, is long and world-class.

Collin Morikawa is making his course debut this week, so ten under par through two rounds is a terrific foundation given his lack of experience. The hope for DeChambeau backers is that the pressure of potential world-number-one status has a negative impact on Morikawa. Getting to top spot in the world rankings for the first time is a huge deal for a player - Jon Rahm got the wobbles on a few occasions before finally getting there.

Morikawa and Koepka appear the main threats. A Sunday twoball with Koepka would be potentially uncomfortable for DeChambeau after the events of last week. The 11-2 Koepka seems slightly better value than the 7-2 Morikawa for anyone wishing to add some cover.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards another course debutant. Viktor Hovland, like Morikawa, has quickly adjusted to new terrain this week. Hovland, up to world number nine and establishing himself as a one of the absolute elite, can be fancied against Tyrrell Hatton in the 5.31pm (UK and Ireland time) match. DeChambeau and Morikawa are scheduled on the tee at 6.04pm.

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