Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge third-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Scottie Scheffler to win 5.44pm twoball
4pts 4-5 general

Tommy Fleetwood to win 4.38pm twoball
4pts 4-5 general

Story so far

Defending champion Viktor Hovland leads the Hero World Challenge by a shot going into the weekend at Albany, New Providence, Bahamas.

Hovland, a pre-tournament 16-1 chance, has shortened to 4-1 after covering the opening 36 holes in five under par. Typically at Albany, that score would leave him a long way behind, but strong winds have kept the players on their toes over the first two days.

Hovland won last year's Hero with an 18-under-par total on his course debut, but the forecast for a breezy weekend means anything double-digits under par will have hope of topping this elite leaderboard this time.

Jon Rahm, the pre-tournament 5-1 favourite, finished round two strongly to put himself five shots behind with 36 holes to play. Scottie Scheffler, second in the ante-post betting at 8-1, is tied for second place with Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young and Collin Morikawa.

Leaderboard
-5 Viktor Hovland
-4 Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa
-3 Tom Kim
-2 Justin Thomas
-1 Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka
Par Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm Tony Finau

Best prices
4 V Hovland, S Scheffler, 9-2 X Schauffele, 13-2 C Morikawa, 15-2 C Young, 12 T Kim, J Thomas, 18 J Rahm, 30 T Finau, 40 bar

Third-round preview

Scottie Scheffler can reclaim world-number-one status by winning the Hero World Challenge and the Texan has put himself in with a great chance after a pin-peppering Friday performance at Albany.

Scheffler finished runner-up in his Albany debut last year and the course sets up well for him. Always comfortable in a breeze, the weekend forecast will satisfy the Masters champion.

Collin Morikawa capitulated from the front in last year's edition when victory would have handed him the world number one ranking, but Morikawa would have been achieving the feat for the first time. Scheffler has been top dog before and insists the rankings are not in his thoughts in The Bahamas this week.

Viktor Hovland was a Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation, so hopefully the Norwegian ace can turn his halfway lead into the trophy. Rarely, though, has a leader come off the course so disgruntled with his game. Hovland has extremely high standards, but he bemoaned both his swing and his putting in post-round interviews.

If Hovland, who played much of his college golf in windy Oklahoma, can continue to grind as well as he has, he should set up a winning chance for Sunday. His course-management has been excellent and he has got in front without putting well, so there are reasons to be positive even if the typically cheerful 25-year-old was less upbeat than usual in front of the cameras.

Xander Schauffele has made his first start since the Zozo Championship in the middle of October - and there has been plenty of rust in his ball-striking - but strong putting has kept this fiesty competitor in the thick of things.

With the rust likely to fall off Schauffele's long-game over the weekend, he should also go close to victory, while Morikawa clearly enjoys this layout and is back hitting his irons in typically lethal fashion. It is difficult to be bullish about this event, with Hovland, Scheffler, Schauffele and Morikawa all capable of victory, and some top-class talent close enough to make moves from behind.

Third-round twoballs punters are pointed towards Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood. Scheffler, seemingly relaxed and relishing this opportunity, should be shorter than 4-5 to account for World Challenge debutant Cameron Young.

Fleetwood, who won the Nedbank Challenge last month and followed up with fifth place in the DP World Tour Championship, has been finishing 2022 in style. The opening two rounds of the Hero have not gone to plan, but he finished third in his only previous Albany start and should make headway up the leaderboard over a breezy weekend.

Kevin Kisner has been in dire form for months and Fleetwood at a shade off odds-on to outscore the grouchy plodder seems extremely generous.

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