Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Sunday

Best bets

Scottie Scheffler top American
3pts 4-5 Coral, Ladbrokes

Tony Finau lowest final round
1pt 10-1 BoyleSports

Story so far

Viktor Hovland carded ten birdies in round three of the Hero World Challenge to take full control at The Albany, New Providence, Bahamas.

The Norwegian ace, 16-1 on tournament-eve, is a stand-out 8-11 with bet365 with 18 holes to play. Hovland leads Scottie Scheffler by three shots, with a further two-shot gap to Justin Thomas and Cameron Young, who are tied for third place.

Hovland was four shots clear as he played the final hole of round three, but he suffered with some mud on his ball and carded a closing bogey. Mud-balls were an issue for all of the field throughout Saturday and Tour chiefs came under fire for not allowing preferred lies.

The final round is scheduled to start at 4.01pm UK and Ireland time, with Hovland and Scheffler forming the final twoball at 5.40pm. A sunny, warm day, with moderate breezes, is forecast.

Leaderboard
-13 Viktor Hovland
-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Justin Thomas, Cameron Young
-7 Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele
-4 Jon Rahm

Best prices
8-11 V Hovland, 11-4 S Scheffler, 12 J Thomas, 16 C Young, 22 X Schauffele, 28 C Morikawa, 150 J Rahm, 2,000 bar

Final-round preview

Viktor Hovland led at the halfway stage of the Hero World Challenge despite being far from happy with his swing and his putting, but this perfectionist could have no complaints as he left Albany on Saturday evening.

Over the last few months, Hovland's iron-play has slowly but surely come back to the level which made him a superstar, and he was particularly eyecatching on approach at the World Wide Technology Championship a month ago. Dismal putting was one reason why he finished only tenth in the WWTC, but a new approach has brought him to life on the greens.

Hovland has been employing the AimPoint technique, relying more on the feel in his feet to read greens rather than the vision from his eyes, and Saturday's results were spectacular. He has set up an excellent chance to become the first person since Tiger Woods to successfully defend the World Challenge title.

Hovland, a Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation, is 31 under par for his seven rounds at Albany, having carded 68, 69, 67, 66 to triumph at 18 under on his Hero debut last year. And this week he has had strong winds to deal with for the most part.

Hovland's record at tropical venues is superb, and if he gets the job done in The Bahamas today, his five PGA Tour victories would all have come in the same region - one in Puerto Rico, two in Playa del Carmen and two in The Bahamas.

Punters with a healthy wager on Hovland, who started the week at 14-1 before drifting to 16-1 on Tuesday afternoon, may choose to have some cover on Scottie Scheffler at 11-4.

Scheffler, who will regain No. 1 spot in the world rankings by winning the Hero, has improved his golf and his score each day this week, with rounds of 72, 68 and 66. He finished runner-up to Hovland in last year's Hero - also making his debut - and will have high hopes of turning the tables this time.

Justin Thomas and Cameron Young are giving Hovland a five-shot Sunday start, which means they probably require a spectacular final round to threaten the trophy. If Hovland produces anything close to the deadly form he showed on Saturday, Scheffler is arguably the only man capable of denying the pride of Norway back-to-back Hero success.

The second half of this year has been a disappointment for Scheffler, with lots of near-misses, and he has not won a tournament since the Masters. Perhaps another close-but-no-cigar effort is about to occur at Albany. Hovland first, Scheffler second is an appealing forecast option.

Scheffler looks a bargain at 4-5 to finish as top American. Of course, Thomas and other class acts are lurking over his Scheffler's shoulder in this market, but a two-shot lead from the off makes Scheffler a bet at a shade of odds-on.

Tony Finau has carded three rounds of par or better without slipping out of second gear this week. He has been lacking a little sparkle, particularly on the early holes. If he starts in smarter fashion in round four, it would come as no surprise if the Houston Open champion finishes with a flourish and outscores everyone over the closing 18 holes. Finau is full of form and confidence, and he closed with a 65 at Albany in 2019.

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