Steve Palmer's Hero Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11am Sunday

Best bets

Adrian Otaegui to win the Hero Open
2pts 6-1 bet365, Betfred

David Law to win 10.14am threeball
2pts 11-8 bet365

Story so far

Pre-tournament 60-1 chance, Sean Crocker, leads the Hero Open by two shots heading into the final round. The Zimbabwe-born American eagled his final hole of round three to become 13-8 favourite for the Fairmont St Andrews event.

Crocker double-bogeyed the 13th hole of this third round to encourage his pursuers, but two lusty blows at the par-five 18th were followed by a chip-in, massively enhancing his chances of a maiden DP World Tour title.

Crocker's score has worsened by three shots each round (63, 66, 69), but Saturday was by far the most difficult of the trio, with the Fife winds strengthening. Crocker's fellow maiden, Jens Dantorp, is alone in second place.

Ante-post 11-1 favourite, Ryan Fox, is tied for 49th place, 11 shots behind. David Law is the leading Scot - tied for third place - after Scott Jamieson dropped from second place to 17th with a Saturday 75.

Leaderboard
-18 Sean Crocker
-16 Jens Dantorp
-15 Adrian Otaegui, David Law
-14 Victor Dubuisson, Louis de Jager, Eddie Pepperell, Oliver Farr

Best prices
13-8 S Crocker, 4 J Dantorp, 6 A Otaegui, 13-2 D Law, 18 E Pepperell, 20 V Dubuisson, 30 L De Jager, O Farr, 40 bar

Final-round preview

The old cliche that tournaments "don't start until the back-nine Sunday" is obviously flawed on many levels. For starters, if you don't play well on Thursday and Friday, there is a good chance you will not even be around for Sunday, having missed the cut.

Sean Crocker underlined the importance of Saturday in the Hero Open - his final-hole eagle an absolutely huge moment in the low-grade Fairmont St Andrews affair. It meant he went from tied for the lead to two shots ahead - and three ahead of the nearest DP World Tour champion.

The Hero Open has become a fantastic opportunity for Crocker to shed his maiden tag. This excellent ball-striker has failed to make a breakthrough due to his typically poor putting, but this week he has rolled his rock with assurance.

Jens Dantorp has been impressing on the Challenge Tour and must be respected, but he was in second place going into the final round of the Cazoo Classic last Sunday and finished eighth. The Swede never settled and lost several drives to the right. Maybe he will have learned from that experience and stay calmer, but last week's evidence was enough to make the 4-1 against his name this week a price which can be left alone.

Crocker deserves clear favouritism for a cloudy Sunday with moderate breezes, but 13-8 is giving nothing away about a three-time runner-up who spectacularly imploded on the 72nd hole of the Alfred Dunhill Championship when he had a great winning chance in 2020.

Daniel Hillier and Wilco Nienaber are alongside each other for round four - two rising stars who could make a charge for the title from just off the pace - but both have probably given themselves too much to do.

The best bets at this stage are probably the duo tied for third - Adrian Otaegui and David Law. Otaegui is a course winner, having won the 2020 Scottish Championship by four shots, and the Spaniard will fancy his chances from three shots behind.

Law, the main hope for the local galleries after Scott Jamieson's horrific Saturday back-nine of 40, finished fourth in the Hero Open last year at this track. Law was fourth in the Irish Open earlier this month and should pick up another healthy cheque this week.

The 6-1 about Otaegui is marginally more appealing than the 13-2 Law, given the man from San Sebastian has three DP World Tour titles on his CV at the age of 29. Law is a 31-year-old with only the low-grade 2019 Vic Open to his name. He did win in his homeland on the Challenge Tour, but might fall just short in St Andrews.

The final threeball - Crocker, Dantorp and Otaegui - is due out at 10.25am on Sunday. Law, Victor Dubuisson and Louis de Jager are off 11 minutes earlier. Law appeals as a threeball wager, in addition to the Otaegui outright investment.

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