Steve Palmer's Hassan II Trophy betting preview, tips, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Thursday

Joost Luiten is clear favourite for the Hassan II Trophy, the first regulation European Tour event in almost a month, and the diminutive Dutchman is seeking his seventh victory on the main circuit.

Luiten, Oman Open champion last year, in good nick this term, and boasting rock-solid Hassan form figures of 14-13-9 at the Es Salam venue, deserves his place at the head of the market and must be respected. The jolly at 16-1 is a fair price, but there are plenty with chances in a wide-open affair and a more ambitious staking plan is advised.

Palmer's top tip
Jordan Smith 25-1

Jordan Spieth has been struggling badly with his game and 54th place in the Heritage last week provided more questions than answers, but Jordan Smith has less to fret about. Smith has been swinging well for eight months, pounding fairways and greens, and a second European Tour victory should arrive soon enough.

Tough ball-striking assignments provide Smith with his best opportunities – he hits it long and straight – and an Es Salam layout where the winning score has been nine under par or worse the last three years fits the bill. The Bath boy should secure a safer passage than most to the greens and a half-decent week of putting could deliver the trophy.

Smith ended last season strongly, finishing third in the British Masters and 12th in the DP World Tour Championship, and he has been threatening silverware this year, with 11th in Abu Dhabi, 12th in Oman and seventh last time out in the Maybank Championship, where he closed with a seven-under-par, bogey-free 65.

The 26-year-old has won a Challenge Tour event in North Africa – in Egypt in 2016 – and his debut in the continent yielded ninth place in the 2015 Dimension Data Pro-Am. He finished third in the 2017 SA Open, a shot behind Rory McIlroy, so has shown a liking for the kikuyu fairways he faces again this week, and two starts at Es Salam have yielded results of 8-52.

The eighth place came after he shared 59th spot at the halfway stage but hit his stride after adjusting to previously uncharted terrain and the 52nd came when he was badly labouring for fitness and form – his results from his 16 previous events were 60-MC-MC-MC-21-58-42-WD-25-MC-61-MC-69-26-MC-MC. This time, it is almost ten months since Smith missed the cut in a non-Major, and his confidence is high.

Next best
Nacho Elvira 28-1

The award for the unluckiest golfer on the planet may have to go to Nacho Elvira, who remains a European Tour maiden despite regularly knocking forcefully at the door of the winner's enclosure.

Elvira looked set for victory at Es Salam in 2016 until Jeunghun Wang's putter turned into a magic wand and the Korean edged him in a playoff. Last season, it looked like Elvira might win the Spanish Open, until Jon Rahm took control over the closing two holes, then a month ago further agony came courtesy of the Maybank Championship.

Elvira defied an untimely clap of thunder on his backswing at the final hole of regulation play to secure a Maybank playoff against Scott Hend, who then smacked his drive at the first extra hole into the base of a tree. Sadly for Elvira, the Hend drive rebounded into the fairway of the par-five and the power-packed Aussie made a title-clinching birdie.

Elvira has finished second, second and sixth in his last three European Tour outings, he is course-proven, and clearly good enough to win at this level. The 32-year-old has won four times on the Challenge Tour and will surely break through on the main circuit when the golfing gods show some overdue mercy.

Other selections
Romain Langasque 50-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40-1
Adrian Otaegui 66-1
Adrien Saddier 150-1

Romain Langasque is nine years younger than Elvira and will probably not have to wait as long for European Tour glory. Langasque could get off the mark this week, having opened his Challenge Tour account with a three-shot success in September.

The Frenchman has quickly built an excellent record in Africa – second in the 2016 Kenya Open, fifth in the 2016 Egyptian Challenge, 11th in the 2017 Joburg Open, third in the 2017 Mauritius Open, second in the 2018 South African Open, and sixth in the Kenya Open a month ago, where he topped the greens in regulation stats.

Langasque finished 22nd at Es Salam last year despite starting the event ranked outside the world's top 450. The stiff GIR test suits him and sixth place last week in the Open d'Arcachon – a low-grade, three-round event in France – was a tidy warm-up.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, an improving South African youngster comfortable on this type of terrain, has won on the Sunshine Tour and looks ready for higher-grade honours. Second place in Qatar at the start of last month was followed by ninth in Kenya and fourth in India, and he was 22nd in the Hassan last year despite a world ranking of 567. He qualified for the final threeball, before inexperience saw him drop away, but 12 months on he is a much more assured character.

Adrian Otaegui, like Elvira, needed to make only a short hop from Spain to Morocco – it takes about an hour and a half to fly from Madrid to Rabat – and this dynamic duo have not strayed far from home. Otaegui, a two-time European Tour champion who finished strongly for tenth place in India last time out, closed with a 69 for 19th spot in last year's Hassan and churns out enough GIR to contend this weekend.

Alex Levy won last year and two Frenchmen make the staking plan this time, with Adrien Saddier joining Langasque. Saddier appears to have found something, with progressive form figures of 31-27-17, and nobody scored better than him over the weekend of the Kenya Open, his last outing, where he was nine under par for his closing two rounds.

Saddier, 26, won on the Challenge Tour in 2016, was runner-up in the 2017 Kenya Open and contended for a long way in the SA Open last year. He seems to enjoy performing in Africa, accuracy is his typical strength, and he finished 16th in the 2016 Hassan despite being ranked outside the world's top 1,300 at the time.

Others to note
Sean Crocker
The Zimbabwe-born American signed off with rounds of 68 and 65 for 12th spot in the Kenya Open last time out and can improve on his 22nd-place Hassan finish of 12 months ago.

Mikko Korhonen
The steady Finn has been churning out greens in regulation over the last few weeks and finished tenth in India last time out, so a place on the leaderboard would come as no surprise.

Erik van Rooyen
The South African maiden blew another golden chance in Qatar last month, suffering on the greens, and was sixth in India last time out. He tied for seventh in the Hassan last year and should go close again this week.

Thomas Detry
The talented Belgian youngster closed with a 68 for 19th place in the Hassan last year. The World Cup winner has been presented with another decent chance of a European Tour breakthrough.

Benjamin Hebert
The accurate Frenchman, seventh in the Maybank last time out, has progressive Hassan form of 34-19-13 and the course suits him.

Adri Arnaus
The Spanish youngster is bursting with potential and second place in the Kenya Open last month showed he could handle tight tracks in Africa.

Staking plan
J Smith
2.5pts each-way 25-1 BoyleSports
N Elvira
2pts each-way 28-1 general
R Langasque
1.5pts each-way 50-1 SkyBet
C Bezuidenhout
1.5pts each-way 40-1 SkyBet
A Otaegui
1pt each-way 66-1 Ladbrokes
A Saddier
0.5pt each-way 150-1SkyBet

The lowdown

Course Royal Golf Dar Es Salam (Red Course), Rabat, Morocco
Prize money €2.5m (€416,660 to the winner)
Length 7,632 yards
Par 72
Field 144
Course records - 72 holes 266 Rhys Davies (2010) 18 holes 64 Louis Oosthuizen (2010), Danny Willett (2010)

Course winners taking part Jeunghun Wang, Edoardo Molinari, Alexander Levy

When to bet By 7am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am Thursday

Course overview From 2011 to 2015, Golf du Palais in Agadir staged this event, but 2010, 2016, 2017 and last year saw Royal Golf Dar Es Salam take centre stage. There are two courses at this venue – the Red Course and the Blue Course – and in 2010 the competitors played a round at each course over the first two days before only the Red Course was used for rounds three and four. From 2016 onwards, the Red has been used exclusively.
Es Salam hosted the Moroccan Open on four occasions, most recently in 2001, a tournament won by Ian Poulter.
The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1971. It is a tree-lined track with kikuyu fairways and water is in play on the ninth (green surrounded), 12th and 17th. This is a long course but the four par-fives are fairly straightforward. The four par-threes are all difficult, especially the 17th, which has been extended this year from 215 yards to a whopping 286, and nobody has finished double-digits under-par the last three years

Story of last year Alexander Levy closed with a 70 to repel a fast-finishing Alvaro Quiros and triumph by a shot

Weather forecast A cool, cloudy start, before a hot, sunny weekend, with light to moderate breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge There is plenty of yardage to cover at Es Salam, but none of the four Hassan Trophy winners there are big-hitters. Control and a sharp short-game are more valuable attributes, with power helpful but not essential

Key attribute Accuracy

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