Steve Palmer's Golf in Dubai Championship free golf betting tips, predictions

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Golf in Dubai Championship at the Fire Course on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Golf from 8am Wednesday

Best bets

Thorbjorn Olesen
2pts each-way 90-1 Betfred
Tom Lewis
2pts each-way 40-1 Betfred, Hills
Andy Sullivan
2pts each-way 25-1 Hills

Tournament preview

Robert MacIntyre, Bernd Wiesberger and Martin Kaymer were vying for favouritism when bookmakers issued their opening shows for the inaugural Golf in Dubai Championship, but none of them hold much appeal at short odds for the event, which starts on Wednesday.

MacIntyre improved after a slow start at Leopard Creek last week to finish tied for sixth in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, and the Scot is the most attractive of the market leaders, but his price does not seem generous. The Scot has suffered with injuries this year and is yet to win a proper 72-hole strokeplay event.

The putters of Wiesberger and Kaymer rarely catch fire and that could be the death-knell for their chances of winning this week at the Fire Course, a low-scoring track where four rounds in the 60s are probably necessary for success in the expected fantastic weather.

Matt Wallace spurned a three-shot final-round advantage in the Scottish Championship in October and his victory drought has stretched to 27 months, while Thomas Detry appears to come with a guarantee of at least one card-busting error when contending for titles. The Belgian was a short-priced favourite for the Cyprus Showdown last time out until a filthy seven on the sixth hole of round four.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thorbjorn Olesen 90-1

Dubai has long been one of Thorbjorn Olesen's favourite cities and the 30-year-old Dane could get back to winning ways on Saturday.

Olesen has always relished desert golf and contended for titles in the region numerous times. Eighth place in the 2012 Abu Dhabi Championship was the first of eight top-ten finishes in European Tour events in the Middle East, including second spot in the 2013 ADC, third in the 2013 Dubai Desert Classic, third in the 2014 Qatar Masters and second in 2016 in the same event.

Olesen's last start in Dubai yielded seventh place in the 2019 Desert Classic - he had just been part of a triumphant European Ryder Cup side and was established inside the top 50 of the world rankings - then six months later he was arrested after a flight back from the Memphis WGC and his career stalled.

A tentative comeback on the UK Swing in August yielded mixed results and this year there have been bursts of his old brilliance without 72-hole consistency. There have been enough positive signs, though, to suggest Olesen is becoming a force again and a missed cut by a shot in the Cyprus Showdown last time out (only 32 of 105 qualified) is easy to forgive.

On the right track in the right conditions, Olesen is worth chancing at juicy odds, and a low-scoring Dubai layout which puts a premium on good putting seems right up his alley. His court case is still at least a year away and he can be fancied to claim a sixth European Tour title before then.

The London-based star has been spending time since Cyprus practising at Titleist's new Elite Performance Centre near Woburn and it will probably not be long before he finds top gear again. If Thunderbear clicks this week he could make a mockery of his odds, as he is one of the most prolific champions in the field.

Next best bet

Tom Lewis 40-1

It is worth gambling that Tom Lewis rediscovers the form which threatened to win him a WGC title in August. Lewis fired a third-round 61 in the St Jude Invitational on his way to second place behind Justin Thomas, concentrating entirely on the PGA Tour post-lockdown.

Further Stateside success has eluded Lewis and he has not been sighted since missing the cut in the Houston Open at the start of November. There must be every chance, though, that three weeks off followed by a return to the European Tour reignites the talented Englishman.

Lewis, who turns 30 in January, finished seventh and sixth in the DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course in the last two runnings - and last year he finished ninth in the Abu Dhabi Championship and third in the Saudi International. He has a gift for super-low rounds and can be expected to throw one in during this week's birdie-fest.

Lewis, who started working with flat-stick ace Brad Faxon this year in a bid to improve his putting, is eager to get back into the world's top 50 before the end of the season to secure an overdue Masters debut.

Other selection

Andy Sullivan 25-1

A seven-shot romp in the English Championship in August ended a victory drought of almost five years for Andy Sullivan and the relieved Midlander could conjure a quick follow-up this week.

He has finished third in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth since his Hanbury Manor success and the Fire Course suits him well.

Sullivan has twice finished runner-up in Dubai, beaten by Rory McIlroy and Danny Willett, and this could be the moment he gets over the line in front there.

Players to note

Sami Valimaki
The Finn dropped off the leaderboard late in both of the Tour's events in Cyprus, so he has some Sunday sorrow to overcome, but the Oman Open champ will probably like the Fire Course.

Wil Besseling
The Dutchman overcame a poor start to finish 13th at Leopard Creek last week, continuing his bright post-lockdown form. He has not played much desert golf though.

Rasmus Hojgaard
The young Dane, who has quickly won two Tour titles, is a class act, but he lacks Middle East experience and missed the cut in four of the five events there earlier this year.

Adri Arnaus
The Dubai-based Spaniard doubtless has some course experience he can draw upon, but he is becoming increasingly exasperating for his followers, making silly mistakes.

Golf in Dubai Championship course guide

Course Fire Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $1.2m ($200,000 to the winner)
Length 7,480 yards
Par 72
Field 108

When to bet By 3.10am on Wednesday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8am on Wednesday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Alfred Dunhill Championship 1 C Bezuidenhout (18-1), T2 J T Schaper (70-1), A Meronk (150-1), S Crocker (80-1), R Bland (66-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview The Jumeirah Golf Estates is a familiar venue for many of the players - it stages the annual DP World Tour Championship - but that traditional finale to the European Tour season is played on the Earth Course. The neighbouring Fire Course, opened in 2010, makes its Tour debut this week - a layout featuring four par-five holes and the fingerprints of Greg Norman, who also designed the Earth Course. Norman made the Fire contrast as much as possible to the Earth, though, and there is a links-like feel to it. Tall, wispy rough lines many fairways, there is lots of undulation in the terrain and the Fire is more exposed to the wind because it is on the edge of the property. The Fire is easier than the Earth, principally due to slower, more straightforward greens, and the lack of water hazards, but it is also tighter off the tee, with heavy bunkering throughout. Despite the considerable yardage, four par fours are sub-400 yards. Four long par threes and two enormous par fives - the 630-yard fifth and the 621-yard 13th - account for plenty of the distance

Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with moderate afternoon breezes following calm mornings

Type of player suited to the challenge The Fire has been described as more of a 'thinking man's desert track', with accuracy and course-management more important than usual in this region, but slow, large greens and good weather should mean scoring is extremely low. A hot putter may prove the most valuable tool

Key attribute Touch/putting

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