Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.40pm

Best bets

Justin Thomas
4pts each-way 10-1 Betfair, Paddy Power
Click to back this tip with Paddy Power
Marc Leishman
2pts each-way 40-1 Betfred, Coral
Click to back this tip with Coral
Hideki Matsuyama
2pts each-way 28-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Paddy Power
Click to back this tip with Paddy Power
Patrick Rodgers
1pt each-way 175-1 Sky Bet
Click to back this tip with bet365

The best tournament of the year so far is upon us – a Genesis Invitational which oozes quality – and whoever lifts the trophy on Sunday will certainly have earned their glory. The top six players in the world are in attendance – nine of the top ten are teeing up – and Phoenix Open champion Webb Simpson is the only member of the elite taking the week off.

Rory McIlroy, who has just regained top spot in the world rankings, is Genesis favourite at a Riviera track where he finished fourth last season. His first outing of this year resulted in third place in the Farmers Insurance Open.

Brooks Koepka, the man usurped by McIlroy at the rankings summit, has been disappointing in his two 2020 starts (34-17 in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia) and missed the cut in his only previous Riviera visit. Dustin Johnson, five-shot Genesis victor in 2017, is a more attractive option, but a 78 at Pebble Beach on Sunday was an untimely dent to confidence, while Tiger Woods has a dismal Riviera record by his high standards.

Woods has played in this event 12 times without winning and Riviera is the only track he has tackled more than four times without success.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Justin Thomas 10-1

All the big names will have their backers this week, but the one whose case seems the most watertight is that of Justin Thomas, who looks the best value Riviera runner.

Thomas fears nobody these days and has grown comfortable competing with Woods, McIlroy and the other superstars who established themselves on the PGA Tour before him. The 26-year-old has 12 PGA Tour titles to his name, including a Major, and a playoff victory in the Sentry Tournament of Champions got his 2020 off to a perfect start.

Mental fatigue and wild weather meant a missed cut in the Sony Open the week after the Sentry – Waialae being the only blip on an otherwise rock-solid recent record. Thomas has won three of his last nine tournaments, finishing in the top ten in seven of them, and his last 13 events have yielded 12 top-20s. He also found time to be top scorer for his country in the Presidents Cup.

Even with his B-game, which he admitted he was carrying for most of the Phoenix Open last time out, he was able to finish third at TPC Scottsdale. He appeared to be drifting along in second gear for much of that event, then he covered his final six holes in four under par, his swing suddenly looking majestic.

Thomas probably has Augusta on his mind already – he is a huge contender for the Green Jacket – but first he will want to avenge his Riviera near-miss of 12 months ago. The final day of the weather delayed 2019 edition was excruciating for JT, who had to play 34 holes in the company of JB Holmes, arguably the slowest player on the circuit.

Thomas had to battle the snail alongside him in the final group, as well as strong winds, eventually finishing runner-up by a shot. Genesis form figures of 9-2 from the last two years could have a W added this week because Riviera suits faders such as this little powerhouse and the Genesis title should end up on the Thomas CV at some stage.

It is a slight negative that he has never won in California, but he has shown enough form in the Golden State for the concern to drift quickly away – tenth place in the 2014 Farmers, seventh in the 2015 Humana, third in the 2015 Frys, eighth in the 2016 Safeway and fourth in the 2019 Safeway, as well as his last two Genesis spins.

Next best bet

Marc Leishman 40-1

The last time Marc Leishman teed up in California he left Jon Rahm, McIlroy, Woods and others in his wake, carding a final-round 65 and putting like a magician to become Farmers Insurance Open champion on Australia Day. Aussies have been winning an extraordinary amount of tournaments in recent weeks – Min Woo Lee becoming the latest in the Vic Open last Sunday – and Leishman could well continue the streak at Riviera.

Leishman's natural fade fits the layout and he followed up fifth place in the 2016 Genesis with fourth spot last year. His California record is generally excellent, including two runner-up finishes in the Farmers prior to his victory, and third spot in the Safeway Open last year.

Leishman, a five-time PGA Tour champion, seems more committed than ever to his profession. The beer-lover has cut down on his drinking and lost weight, saying he feels fitter at the end of rounds, and he has fallen in love with the new Callaway Mavrik driver. He reports that his drives either go straight or fade, eliminating the left side of holes, and that is perfect tee-shot control for Riviera.

Other selections

Hideki Matsuyama 28-1

Patrick Rodgers 175-1

Complete a team of faders on a course which lends itself to the left-to-right shot-shape with Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Rodgers.

Matsuyama is enduring a winless streak stretching back to August, 2017, when he won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational by five shots. The former world number two is too good to suffer like this for much longer and stiff ball-striking tests like Riviera provide his best chances. Perhaps the nature of this event – one where he is out of the spotlight due to the amount of star names in attendance – will also help alleviate pressure.

Matsuyama, fourth at Riviera in 2015 and ninth last year, was third in the Farmers last year and is helped by poa annua greens. Uneven putting surfaces can be a leveller, failing to fully expose his putting weakness. The Japanese ace matched the weekend score of a triumphant Simpson in Phoenix last time out and can contend at Riviera.

Rodgers impressed in the 2012 NCAA Championship at Riviera as an amateur, finishing ninth in the individual competition, and starred in the Golden State at Stanford University. Having matched the victory record of Tiger Woods at Stanford, PGA Tour success seemed inevitable, but Rodgers remains a maiden at the age of 27.

Despite generally struggling on the PGA Tour over the last three years, Rodgers has compiled Riviera form figures of 22-26-15, and last season's effort came after he started the year with four consecutive missed cuts. The track suits him well and the three-time PGA Tour runner-up can go close to the breakthrough again. He has four PGA Tour top-tens to his name in California, including fourth spot in the 2017 Farmers and ninth in the same event last month.

Players to note

Patrick Cantlay
The Californian, fourth at Riviera in 2018, finished 11th at Pebble Beach on Sunday and seems likely to produce something similar this week.

Collin Morikawa
Another home-state hero who must be respected. Morikawa likes to hit most of his shots left to right and Riviera is a course which sets up fantastically for the rising star.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard, another player more comfortable hitting fades, finished ninth last year and is difficult to dismiss. But poor Sundays at Torrey Pines and Scottsdale temper enthusiasm.

Xander Schauffele
The San Diego man will be relishing the home-state gig and must enter calculations, but a Sentry near-miss was followed by a poor final round in Phoenix. He has finished runner-up four times since his last victory 13 months ago.

Riviera course guide

Course Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles, California
Prize money $9.3m ($1.332m to the winner)
Length 7,332 yards
Par 71
Field 120
Course records- 72 holes 264 Lanny Wadkins (1985)
18 holes 61 Ted Tryba (1991)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, Charles Howell, Phil Mickelson (twice), Steve Stricker, Aaron Baddeley, Bubba Watson (three times), James Hahn, Dustin Johnson, JB Holmes

When to bet By 2.45pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2.45pm

Time difference California is eight hours behind UK and Ireland

Last week - Pebble Beach Pro-Am 1 N Taylor (150-1),
2 K Streelman (90-1), 3 P Mickelson (25-1), 4 J Day (20-1),
T5 M McNealy (125-1), D Berger (40-1), M Jones (175-1),
C Schwartzel (200-1)

Course overview Riviera Country Club has been used for this event (formerly the Los Angeles Open, Nissan Open, Northern Trust Open and Genesis Open) every year since 1973 apart from 1983 and 1998.

The only recent Major it has staged is the 1995 USPGA (won by Steve Elkington), while the 2017 US Amateur was also at Riviera (won by Doc Redman).

It has always been known as a faders’ paradise, with the left-to-right shot-shape of Fred Couples guiding him to victory twice in the early 1990s, and all-time greats like Nick Faldo, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson have prospered there since Boom Boom’s success.

Tom Fazio gently redesigned the track in 2008, lengthening the layout to combat technological advances. The lush kikuyu grass rough can be penal, the greens – a mix of poa annua and creeping bentgrass – require plenty of getting to know, and there are lots of doglegs.

The tenth hole is a classic risk-reward driveable par four, where spectators are treated to eagles as well as triple-bogeys. There are only three par-fives, the first of which (the first) is the easiest hole on the course. The 11th and the 17th are tougher par-fives. The 467-yard par-four 12th is the most difficult hole.

Story of last year JB Holmes infuriated spectators with his slow pace of play, but eventually secured a one-shot victory over Justin Thomas.

Weather forecast Sunny and calm for three days, before a breezy final round

Type of player suited to the challenge Quality ball-strikers with sharp strategies typically prevail at Riviera, and punters should concentrate on players who have plenty of course experience in their locker, preferably faders. It has become a long course since the redesign, with more powerful starting to dominate the honours board.

Key attribute Accuracy

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